Sunday, April 02, 2023

Growing, but more slowly.

"India's current account deficit (CAD) narrowed sequentially to $18.2 billion in the quarter ended December 2022, or 2.2 percent of gross domestic product, from $30.9 billion in Q2FY23 (3.7 percent of GDP)." BS. "Behind the lower CAD in Q3FY23 was the narrowing of the merchandise trade deficit to $72.7 billion from $78.3 billion in Q2FY23, couple with robust services and private transfer receipts, said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)." "India's merchandise imports are expected to grow by about 16 percent to USD 710 billion in this fiscal due to a jump in inbound shipments of crude oil, coal, diamonds, chemicals and electronics, a report by economic think tank GTRI said." BS. "It is said that the estimated value of petroleum imports is USD 210 billion and this includes crude oil, LNG and LPG." On the other hand, "Union commerce minister Piyush Goyal...said India's overall exports, both goods and services combined, have already crossed the $750 billion mark." HT. "According to the minister, India's exports in 2022-23 could touch $760 billion when data till March 31 is compiled." In the first 11 months of the financial year 2022-23 FY23, "The value of goods and services imports was $817.5 billion," wrote V Anantha Nageswaran & Anuradha Guru. "India's exports grew rapidly in the eight years between FY04 and FY12. The annual growth rate of goods exports was 21.3%, and that of services was 23.2% in this period." Since then, the growth rate of exports has slowed significantly up to 2021. "Since FY14, the country's import of capital goods has witnessed a fall, with its share in total merchandise imports falling to a low of 13% and remaining in a range of 11-14% thereafter." "Capital goods include buildings, machinery, equipment, vehicles and tools. Capital goods are not finished goods, instead they are used to make finished goods." Investopedia. Fall in imports of capital goods was due to fall in new investment. "There was a slowdown in gross capital formation to 34% in FY14 and further to 31% in FY22." "Capital formation is the net accumulation of capital goods, such as equipment, tools, transportation assets, and electricity, during an accounting period." Investopedia. "Generally, the higher the capital formation of an economy, the faster an economy can grow its aggregate income." So, since FY14, new investment in our economy has fallen, coinciding with fall in export growth. During the same period, China's exports of consumer goods and intermediate goods were soaring. BBC. "Foreign direct investments (FDI) in Mexico increased 12% in 2022 to just under US $35.3, official preliminary statistics show." Mexico News. Chinese companies are "moving en masse to Mexico to get around supply chain hurdles being erected to slow Chinese imports into the US," wrote Rahul Jacob. Mexico is a member of NAFTA, a free trade agreement with the US and Canada. wikipedia. Meanwhile, "the Financial Times reported on grave difficulties of quality control at an Apple supplier factory on the outskirts of Bengaluru," and "just half of the components made at the factory were good enough to send on to Foxconn." We may be growing. But, more slowly than before. Others are speeding up.  

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