What to do?

"India is poised to overtake China as the world's most populous nation, with almost 3 million more people than its neighbor by the middle of this year, data released...by the United Nations showed." "India's population by mid-year is estimated at 1.4286 billion, against 1.4257 billion for China - 2.9 million fewer," while "The United States is a distant third, with an estimated population of 340 million as of the end of June, the data showed." "People under the age of 25 account for more than 40% of India's population." Pew Research. Which means that "roughly one-in-five people globally who are under the age of 25 live in India. Looking at India's age distribution another way, the country's median age is 28. By comparison, the median age is 38 in the United States and 39 in China." "No country is likely to challenge India in size for centuries," ET. "The physical needs of nearly a billion and a half people are imposing a terrible strain on India's environment. But as the country lifts itself from deepest poverty, it is no longer subject to famines of old." "The country needs about 9 million new jobs every year just to keep pace." "India has one of the world's lowest rates of formal employment for women: about 1 in 5. China's is almost double that rate, higher than the United States' and the world average." "Bloomberg Economics says India needs to advance on four broad fronts - urbanization, infrastructure, up-skilling and broadening its labor force, and boosting manufacture to fully cash in on its demographic dividend and reshape the global economy in the process." ET. "India's population could start declining in 2047 and fall to 1 billion people by 2100, according to UN estimates." "India needs both manufacturing and services," wrote Somnath Mukherjee. "China, the largest factory of the world, with a manufacturing output of $5 trillion, employs around 83 million workers in manufacturing." While, "half of its workers are employed in services." Services create more jobs than manufacturing but, unfortunately, most services are not tradable. A barber or a chef in India cannot earn foreign exchange. India needs manufacturing to manage our current account deficit (CAD) which "has been a perpetual policy constraint for the country since independence". To employ people they need to have education and skills. "Yet thousands of young Indians are finding themselves graduating with limited or no skills," so that, "Desperate to get ahead, some of these young people are paying for two or three degrees in the hopes of finally landing a job." In a country which gave Sundar Pichai of Alphabet Inc. and Satya Nadella of Microsoft Corp., half the graduates are unemployable. In search of jobs, "India is in throes of a massive move to its cities - the second largest rural to urban migration in human history." BBC. Even those with skills are feeling pain as the global economic growth slows down from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023 and then to 3.0% in 2024, with growth in advanced economies slowing from 2.7% in 2022 to 1.3% in 2023. IMF. As a result, "A funding squeeze at Indian startups that has already led to layoffs and delayed stock listings is set to worsen as investors reckon with stretched valuations and faltering consumption growth, likely laying the ground for industry consolidation." Reuters. 'Consolidation' is a soothing word for job losses. Young people spend years appearing repeatedly in exams to somehow land a government job - the most secure, the most highly paid and with the most perks. ET. The largest population. Perhaps, a mixed blessing.