Saturday, April 22, 2023

Eat ghee, even if you have to borrow to do so.

"Indian economy has been showing signs of transition to a low-inflation regime since the second half of 2022-23 financial year, even as global factors played a big role in the movement of inflation to a high regime from the second half of 2020-21 till the first half of 2022-23, a paper released by the RBI has said." TOI. As if to say that, while we are so good, the whole world is against us. So silly. If we are going to trade with the world it will have an effect on our prices. Especially as, last November, "The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has projected that the global trade growth will rise by 3.5% in 2022 but only 1% in 2023. India's share in the global merchandise trade is 1.8% and in global services, it is 4%, and there is a lot of potential to increase this." With such a minuscule share of global trade it is only natural that prices in India will be influenced by global factors and not the other way round. Hence the RBI should do its job and not make silly excuses. "Inflation in India is expected to come down to 6.8 percent in the current fiscal year ending March 31, to 5 percent the next fiscal, and then drop further to 4 percent in 2024, the International Monetary Fund said." HT. "Ashima Goyal, a member of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, said inflation could fall faster to 4% if there are no supply side shocks. Mint. "Bloomberg data shows that core inflation eased slightly to an 18-month low of 5.95% year-on-year in March," wrote Rupali Sarkar. "The decline in core inflation is driven by a significant moderation in prices across discretionary spending components like clothing and footwear, household goods and services, and recreation and personal care items." So, the slowing in the rise of prices is because of falling demand as the poor and middle classes are being forced to cut spending because of high prices. The rich are immune, which is exacerbating inequality. Sale of Sports Utility Vehicles (SUVs) "accounted for more than half of nearly 4 million cars sold in 2022-23," while "sale of entry level affordable cars slumped to just 252,000 units, which is 57% lower from the peak of 583,000 units recorded in 2016-17." DH. "Earlier this month, the RBI projected growth at 6.5% in FY24 while the IMF put it at 5.9%." ET. A poll of 20 economists by ET had suggested that India's economy likely posted a resilient 6% growth in FY24." Credit card spending in the financial year 2022-23 was Rs 14 trillion which is 47.2% higher than Rs 9.71 trillion in the previous year. ET. "The study shows 63% of the spend is online spending," said Aparna Ramchandra. "If I can stick out my neck and say, this is a very,very scary direction that we are heading." The amount of personal debt rises as relative poverty grows. "I was born poor, but I don't want to die poor. I wanted to provide a better life for my children, which is why we came to Sudan," said Prabhu S from Karnataka's Hakki Pikki tribe, who is among several Indian nationals stuck in violence-hit Sudan." TIE. Poverty is an inability to buy goods and services. High prices increase that inability. People borrow to spend. 'Rinam kritva ghritam pibet', which means 'enjoy life, even if you have to borrow'.  

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