Wednesday, April 26, 2023

The whole century.

"China's economy got off to a flying start this year, starting to rebound from Covid lockdowns while helping to boost global growth. ET. "Gross domestic product expanded 4.5% last quarter from a year earlier, beating economists' expectations." "The International Monetary Fund said that China will be the biggest contributor to global output in the next five years, even as India has overtaken it as the world's most populous nation." As a result of strong growth, "A big splurge in spending in China after Beijing lifted COVID-19 lockdowns will help cushion quarterly results of the world's biggest companies, investors say," even as, "In the United States, where major banks have reported first-quarter results, earnings for S&P 500 companies are seen falling 4.7% in the quarter," and "Europe is headed for a recession too, the data shows, with a drop in earnings of 5.4% expected in the second quarter." Reuters. "American companies in China are increasingly pessimistic about the relationship between Washington and Beijing as geopolitical tensions escalate, even as they have a more favorable view of the nation's economic recovery, according to a new survey." ET. But, surely, India with its huge population can replace China as the market for the world? So, why worry? "It is not just this decade but the entire 21st century belongs to India, said Union Minister for Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal while interacting with the faculty and the students of Stanford Graduate School of Business in San Francisco." NDTV. McKinsey & Co CEO Bob Sternfels said that "it will not just be India's decade, but India's century with all key components in place." Making a fast start, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said that "the growth forecast of 7% is 'very realistic' and there is nothing to suggest that it was not achievable." CNBC. We are up and running. As long as we don't stumble. And, "No country is likely to challenge India in size for centuries. What had long been 'the world's largest democracy' is now simply 'the world's largest' everything." DH. However, "India has one of the world's lowest rates of formal employment for women: about 1 in 5. China's is almost double the rate." "Western countries are now rushing to embrace India as an alternative to China. But the obstacles that have kept India from following the same program over the past 30 years remain in place: ineffective governance, insufficient infrastructure, scanty spending on primary education and health, and laws constraining the use of land and labor." "For more than half a century since Mao Zedong's calamitous Cultural Revolution, well-educated leaders have mapped China's trajectory to modernization," wrote Pankaj Mishra. But, "Facts and data in India often appear fudged: political expediency seems to have blocked even a routine national census that would shed light on India's population," and "the regime displays Mao-style, arbitrary decision making, illustrated pointedly by India's devastating policy of demonetization." And, just like Mao, no criticism is tolerated. DH. Safer to keep repeating "India's century". After all, the 'long run' is only 34 years.  

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