Tuesday, 8 November.

"The world - and India - is sinking into recession." "Surprisingly, tax revenue is soaring, creating a comfortable fiscal situation," wrote Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar. "Ashima Goyal, member of the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, suggests this is a consequence of demonetisation (DM)." Some experts suggested that DM cost 2-2.5% in GDP growth but "official data put GDP growth at 8.3% in the DM year 2016-17. This contradicts the notion that DM was a disaster." In India, the financial year runs from 1 April to 31 March of the following year. cleartax. Demonetisation took place on 8 November 2016, when the government suddenly abolished all Rs 1000 and Rs 500 banknotes with just 4 hours notice. wikipedia. Half the financial year was therefore already over. The GDP grew by 8.3%, but is it possible that it could have grown by 10% or 12% had it not been for DM? We will never know. What we do know, however, is that our GDP growth fell off precipitously thereafter, to 7% in 2017-18, 6.1% in 2018-19 and a paltry 4% in 2019-20, BT, which was the last full financial year before the Covid pandemic struck. That is a fall of 4.3% in 4 years. Then there are taxes. "In the first half of the fiscal year, collection of direct taxes (income and corporate tax) rose 24% and GST (goods and services tax) collections a whopping 33%." This is apparently due to DM and "a much wider crackdown on black money including tougher rules and laws on real estate and money laundering and expanded Tax Information Network." "This April, a time when wholesale prices were up 15% from a year ago" Hindustan Unilever's (HUL) turnover crossed Rs 500 billion for the year. howindia-lives.com. Dabur's revenues crossed Rs 100 billion for the first time. NielsenIQ reported that volumes of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector declined by 2.6% year-on-year but the sector grew 9.6% in value terms because of higher prices. However, small manufacturers with annual sales below Rs 1 billion saw a "13% drop in revenues from a year earlier". Operating margins for large companies was 16-19%, for medium companies it was less than 7.6% and margins for small companies turned negative. No wonder,  corporate tax collections grew. The stock market index S&P BSE Sensex, climbed from 29620 in 2016-17 to 58568 in 2021-22. The price/earnings (PE) ratio climbed from 20.62 to 29.53. Large companies and rich people got richer. " As for GST, "Indirect tax buoyancy corresponds directly to inflation and high inflation does translate into high indirect tax buoyancy, explains DK Srivastava, chief policy advisor, EY India," wrote Gireesh Chandra Prasad. Inflation rates in India have been consistently higher rates in the EU, US and the world. worlddata. Daily wage migrant laborers are able to find work for less than 15 days every month, according to the non-profit Aajeevika Bureau. ET. Thus, while the government and the rich are raking it in, the poor are being savaged by high prices and falling earnings. Is Aiyar writing serious journalism or oily sycophancy? DM was on Tuesday, 8 November 2016, and the US was holding elections. Tomorrow is Tuesday, 8 November and there are elections in the US. Ominous. And worrying.