Friday, November 11, 2022

Different points of view.

"India and the US...expressed concern over high inflation which is being driven by external factors and has become a challenge for both nations." ET. So good to know that India and the US are so similar. Like Siamese twins, as it were. "So while the number today is in a manageable range, the challenges are largely due to the import of crude. About 85 percent of all petro needs that we consume are imported," said Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. "India's crude oil import bill nearly doubled to USD 119 billion in the fiscal year that ended March 31," as "India imported 212.2 million tonnes of crude oil in 2021-22, up from 196.5 million tonnes in the previous year." ET. On the other hand, the US produces almost 12 million barrels of crude oil every day, eia.gov, or 4380 million barrels every year. 1 metric tonne (MT) of crude oil is about 7.15 barrels of crude oil, Oges, which means the US is producing about 620 MT of crude oil every year, about 3 times our total import. On 3 November, "The Federal Reserve approved a fourth-straight rate hike of three-quarters of a percentage point" to the level of 3.75-4%. CNN. "That's the highest the fed funds rate has been since January 2008." "With interest rates rising in the US, money is likely to move from other parts of the world to the US," wrote Vivek Kaul. This makes the dollar stronger against other currencies such as the rupee. "In the process, as the US tries to control domestic inflation, it will continue exporting inflation to other parts of the world." "During January-September 2022, the US dollar has appreciated sharply, for example, by as much as 20%-30% against the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, and Korean won," wrote Prof Deepak Nayyar. But the dollar has appreciated by only 5%-15% against countries like Brazil, China and India because their central banks "have intervened in financial markets to support currencies, and have also raised their benchmark interest rates. The latter is bound to stifle investment and dampen consumption." That is not true for India where the RBI has stuck to its policy of negative real interest rates with the Governor Shaktikanta Das insisting that the central bank was committed to "supporting economic growth and said that the monetary authority had resisted many temptations to reverse policy". ET. In fact given the slowdown in private investment, "The government has set a capex target of Rs 7.5 lakh crore (Rs 7.5 trillion) for fiscal 2022-23, a 35% increase from the previous year." BQ. To boost the economy. "Measures of new investment remain weak. Rather, it is replacement capex spending - bundled up wear-and-tear of the pandemic period," wrote Pranjul Bhandari. Household savings have fallen to below pre-pandemic levels because of low bank deposits "contributing to the sharp widening of the current account deficit". The US Fed has a mandate to "promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices and moderate long term interest rates". Federal Reserve. It is free to do so. The RBI has a mandate to keep inflation around 4%, cleartax,  which it has failed to do. Presumably, because it is obeying orders. Inflation hurts consumers. The US cares for its people. Our rulers do not. We are totally different. 

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