India going gangbusters.

"Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said a synchronised tightening of monetary policy globally has progressively increased the risk of a hard landing, which is a recession to tame inflation. India, however, is differently placed." ET. "The curious part of this 7% expected growth of ours in 2022-23 is that our economy will slow down in the year's second half," wrote Madan Sabnavis. "From 13.5% in the first quarter to 6.3% in the second, and then to 4.6% each in the third and fourth quarters. The last two quarters will be disturbing because in 2021-22, growth was just 5.4% and 4.6%, which should have ideally provided a statistical low base for higher growth this year." Corporate profits are down, household savings have dropped due to inflation, exports of textiles, engineering, jewelry, chemicals etc. are impacted because of slowdown in the West, which will also affect software exports which bring in $120 billion, and the private investment cycle is yet to pick up. On the other hand, "Indian lenders are expanding lending to local corporations at the fastest pace in more than eight years, a sign of a new private investment cycle starting in the world's fifth-largest economy." ET. "With the September quarter earnings season turning out to be better than Dalal Street's expectations, there were at least 13 BSE500 companies whose profits more than doubled and sales grew at least 50% on a year-on-year basis." ET. Exemption from the goods and services tax (GST) on exports has been withdrawn from 1 October and now outbound ocean and air freight will be taxed at 18% but exporters can claim input tax credit refund. ET. So exporters will actually gain. But won't the price of goods go up by 18% and hurt volumes? Confusing. India may be "differently placed" but a global slowdown will affect our exports, wrote Vivek Kaul. "In fact, India's non-oil goods exports have fallen from $34.7 billion in March to $28.2 billion in September." As interest rates have gone up in the US the dollar has strengthened against the rupee from Rs 78 to one dollar to around Rs 82 today. exchangerates.org.uk. This is making imports more expensive and pushing up inflation. The RBI has to increase interest rates to control inflation, thus increasing borrowing costs, which will hurt growth. "An entry-level or economy motorcycle is usually defined as one with a low engine displacement of less than or equal to 125 cc," wrote Alisha Sachdev. "As many as 10 million households have fallen off this two-wheeler market since 2018, according to the analysis by BNP Paribas. To be sure 95% of all two-wheeler sales in India come from models priced below Rs 1 lakh (Rs 100,000). These are alarming figures." Naturally, "India Inc.'s aggregate operating cash flows have fallen year-on-year for the half year ended 30 September," wrote Harsha Jethmalani. "India Inc. reported strong revenue growth of over 25% from a year earlier; however, profits have been weak, and operating cash flows contracted." This is because of inflation and companies will be reluctant to invest in new capacity until cash flows improve. So, is India going gangbusters? Or, are we flattering to deceive.