Friday, November 25, 2022

Like the Chinese cat.

"India is capable of generating a 9 percent growth rate but in view of the geopolitical situation, we should be satisfied with a 6.5-7 percent economic expansion, says Sanjeev Sanyal, member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister." NDTV. "He said India is getting inserted into the global supply chain." "Global growth is projected to slow from an estimated 6.1% in 2021 to 3.6% in 2022 to 2023," wrote Prof Bhaskar Dutta. But, "By all accounts India will be the world's fastest-growing large country." Because, "The services sector dominates the Indian economy by far, contributing over 50% of gross value added, while the manufacturing sector contributes less than 20%." So, "the partial decoupling of the Indian economy is a blessing," but "this also prevents us from capturing much of the benefit when the world economy is booming." "India's average annual growth could be between 6.5% and 7% rather than close to 6%," wrote V Anantha Nageswaran, Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India. "If external demand turns favorable, at least in some years, the growth outcome could reach 8% and beyond." Higher interest rates in the US "leads to money moving from other parts of the world to the US," wrote Vivek Kaul. This leads to the rupee weakening against the dollar, which pushes up the price of imports thus adding to inflation, and there is less money for our startups and unicorns. "According to a recent report by market intelligence provider Tracxn, 14 Indian companies turned unicorns - companies valued over a billion dollars - between January and June 1, 2022." BI. "Forty four companies hit this milestone in 2021." "The Indian growth story that has been sold to us over the years can be summarized in one line: There are lots of Indians and we can sell them something. The trouble is that many Indians are not in a position to buy what fintechs or for that matter other startups sell," wrote Kaul. "One 97 Communications Ltd., the operator of India's largest digital-payments provider known as Paytm," "has seen its stock erase 75 percent of its market value one year after its $2.4 billion offering," "the steepest first-year slide globally among IPOs that raised at least the same amount since Spain's Bankia SA's 82 percent drop in 2012." NDTV. "In October, the number of economic transactions through the unified payments interface (UPI) touched 7.3 trillion, a record high," wrote Kaul. And yet, "The currency in circulation has been going up and stood at Rs 32.2 trillion as of October," and was 12.9% of GDP on 30 June, which is "higher than the level of 12% of the GDP that prevailed before domonetization happened in November 2016 and at the start of UPI in April 2016." "This means that the larger transactions (real estate, wholesale to retail distribution etc.) are still happening in cash, implying that the black money wealth in the system hasn't really reduced." Black money is the real reason for our spectacular growth. Doesn't matter if it's black or white, money is still money.

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