Monday, November 21, 2022

Each central bank for itself.

"The Volcker shock of 1979" "reverberated around the world, as capital flowed into the US, resulting in external debt crises and major economic downturns that led to a 'lost decade' in Latin America and other developing countries," wrote Prof Jayati Ghosh. "But, policymakers "appear to have no interest in alternative explanations or strategies" such as "mending broken supply chains, capping prices and profits in important sectors like food and fuel, and also reining in commodity-market speculation." It is possible that economists at central banks and IMF are not as stupid as Prof Ghosh thinks. "Once seen as the world's go-to-economic crisis fighters, central bankers are now desperately trying to contain a problem they allowed to happen: inflation." ET. "The first step for the newly humbled monetary policymakers is getting prices under control without creating economic havoc." "The higher inflation climbs, the harder it is to get rid of. So the Fed is taking drastic measures to shake it out of the system" and "would rather hike rates too high and risk a recession than lower them too early and watch inflation sick." Yahoo. However, the US economy is still strong as "Job growth is still solid: The US added 261,000 jobs in October", "Average hourly earnings rose by 4.7%, "Consumer spending has been holding up", "On the inflation side, supply chain snarls that cause prices to soar seem to be easing" and "private-sector finances were healthier". The central bank of every country must protect its own people and inflation hurts the poor the most. That should have been the aim of the RBI as well. However, "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is helping to fan a world-beating share market rally with record-low interest rates and huge injections of liquidity - even as inflation threatens to break back out of its target range," wrote Nupur Acharya, Ashutosh Joshi and Anirban Nag on 20 August 2021. Overseas funds poured $7.2 trillion into Indian equities last year as the RBI kept its repo rate at 4% and liquidity soared to a record Rs 8.6 trillion. The stock market index, the Sensex was trading at 22.6 times estimated 12-month earnings, almost double the MSCI Emerging Markets Index which was trading at a multiple of 12.3. The RBI should have increased interest rates at that time to rein in asset price bubbles but it did not. "The RBI had said at the time that withdrawal of liquidity would be a 'multi-year' process." Reuters. But the banking liquidity slipped into negative as "India's balance of payment was in deficit of $16 billion as of March 2022". "India's current account deficit (CAD) widened to $23.9 billion in April-June" while the current account had recorded a surplus of$6.6 billion in April-June 2021." moneycontrol.com. "The attempt to put pressure on the RBI governor in 2018 and 2019 through the central bank's board was an unwise development." TOI. Because, a high inflation reduces government debt by increasing indirect tax collections (GST revenue was Rs 1.68 trillion in Arpil, outlook) and the falling value of the currency decreases value of debt. Kahler. Seems as if the government has the RBI where it wants. Unlike in other countries.

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