Friday, November 04, 2022

Already happening.

"The assumption of monetary policy being the sole or primary instrument for containing inflation is wrong on several grounds, theoretical as well as empirical," wrote Prof Himanshu. Monetary policy does not apply to India because, " While some part of inflation in India is driven by external factors,...inflation lately has been largely driven by local food prices." "Unlike fuel and commodity prices, which are driven by international price movements, food inflation is largely domestic." But "wholesale price inflation has been above 10% for more than a year now and inflation in farm inputs has been above 30%". "The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi...approved an additional Rs 51,875 crore (Rs 518.75 billion) subsidy for phosphatic and potassic (P&K) for fertilizers for the rabi or winter-sown season, amid high global prices." HT. This is in addition to the record estimate of Rs 2.5 trillion for fertilizer subsidy for the whole of 2022-23. Prof Himanshu recommends increase in progressive taxation, which means higher corporate and personal income taxes to help the rural economy which has seen a fall in real wages in the last 2 years. The government is already doing it. In addition to the enormous fertilizer subsidy, "The Central government has decided to extend the free ration scheme for three more months" till December 2022, at a cost of Rs 447.62 billion. NDTV.  "For 2022-23, the Centre has allocated Rs 2.06 lakh crore (Rs 2.06 trillion) for food subsidy. This is 97% of the budget for the Department of Food and Public Distribution, which is in charge of the PDS (Public Distribution System)." India Spend. India possibly has the largest number of social schemes for the poor. "In the 2022 Union budget of India, there are 740 central sector (CS) schemes and 65 (+7+) centrally sponsored schemes." wikipedia. "The country needs 108 million tonnes of foodgrains every year to support 80 crore (800 million) poor people who get 10 kg of rice or wheat every month, under the Prime Minister Garib Kalyan Yojana, said Union Food Minister Piyush Goyal." ET. Corporate tax rates were cut in 2019, with an estimated revenue loss of Rs 1.45 trillion. pib.gov.in. In fact, monetary policy in India is still very soft. The Reserve Bank (RBI) has increased interest rates by a total of 190 basis points to 5.9%, TOI, while consumer price (CPI) inflation was 7.41% in September. TIE. The US Federal Reserve has raised rates for a total of 375 basis points to 3.75-4%. CNBC. As a result, the rupee fell to 83.02 to one dollar on 19 October, ET, but has managed to rise to 81.78 to one dollar this morning. xe.com. The weaker the rupee, the higher will be the costs of fuel and fertilizers. Higher interest rates in India could make the rupee stronger and automatically bring down cost of imports. After all the RBI is doing just that. "To help arrest rupee's record fall, the RBI has now burned $111.37 billion from its forex coffer." ET. What is the point in increasing taxes on companies when the RBI is desperately trying to keep borrowing costs low to encourage investments? Inflation hurts the poor the most. Solutions must be rational. Not ideological.    

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