Friday, July 29, 2022

75 is less than 100. A huge relief.

"Federal Reserve officials raised interest rates by 75 basis points for the second straight month and the Chair Jerome Powell said a similar move was possible again, rejecting speculation that the US economy is in recession." ET. Before the meeting, "Pockets of Wall Street are raising the possibility that the Federal Reserve could go to extreme lengths on Wednesday in an attempt to control the hottest US inflation in four decades." ET. They feared a full 100 basis points rise. "Extreme lengths" was followed by extreme relief as, "Stocks extended a rally Thursday, bonds rose and the dollar held losses as the prospect of a slower pace of Federal Reserve monetary tightening filtered across global markets." FE. "Treasuries advanced, lowering the 10-year yield to 2.76%." In a huge relief rally, "The benchmark S&P BSE Sensex zoomed 1,098 points in the intra-day trade, before settling 1,041 points, or 1.87 percent, higher at 56,858. The NSE Nifty50, on the other hand,reclaimed the 16,900-mark to end at 16,930, up 288 points or 1.73 percent." News18. The rally continued yesterday. "Investor's wealth grew by over Rs 9 trillion in three days of sharp rally in the equity market." BS. In 3 days the Sensex climbed 2,301.76 points or 4.16% to close at 57,570.25 yesterday. The rupee jumped against the dollar. "The rupee gained 45 paise to close at 79.24 (provisional) against the US dollar on Friday as heavy buying in domestic equities and weakness in the greenback bolstered investor sentiment." NDTV. The rupee has strengthened to 79.19 to the dollar this morning. xe.com. "The rupee gained on expectations that the US Federal Reserve may not be very aggressive in rate hikes after the US economy contracted for the second successive quarter." TOI. "The currency appreciation has not diminished expectations of a rate hike by the RBI. Forecasters continue to expect the central bank to hike rates by 35-50 basis points on August 5, when it announces its bi-monthly monetary policy review." However, "India's foreign exchange reserves got depleted by another $1.152 billion in the week to July 22, reflecting the unabated fall in reserves albeit at a lesser pace. The reserves stood at $571.560 as against the all-time high of $642.453 billion seen on September 3 last year, Reserve Bank of India data showed." ET. The relative weakness of the dollar may be short-lived. "It's up 15% against a basket of currencies since mid-2021. And with the Fed determined to keep driving rates up to quell inflation - even if it means sinking the US and global economies into recession - there's little that most long-time currency watchers see to brake the dollar's climb." ET. "India is the most vulnerable economy in the Asia emerging market (EM) space amid high inflation and twin deficits, Societe Generale said in a July 25 note." moneycontrol. "Compared to 2017-18 and 2021-22, the annual imports from China rose from $89714.23 million to $115,419.96 million (a rise of 29%), Union Minister of State for Commerce and Industry Anupriya Patel informed Lok Sabha." TOI. The RBI's efforts to control inflation by a stronger rupee will only increase the trade and current account deficits. Eventually it will have to do the math.

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