Sunday, July 17, 2022
That's why it is impossible.
The economic crisis in Sri Lanka "arose from years of high fiscal deficits (government overspending) translating into high current account deficits (national overspending), empty foreign exchange reserves and hence soaring inflation and debt default. This holds lessons for India," wrote SAA Aiyar. The Finance Ministry's "monthly report for May said India faces near term challenges in managing its fiscal deficit, sustaining economic growth, reigning in inflation and containing the current account deficit. This while maintaining a fair value of the currency." TOI. But, "It asserted that the country faces low risk of stagflation owing to its prudent stabilisation policies." How reassuring. "India already has a combined fiscal deficit of 11% for the center and states. The current account deficit looks like doubling this year to 3% of GDP. Consumer inflation is 7% and wholesale price inflation at 15%." The US is using monetary policy to control inflation. "Speaking to Congress...(US Federal Reserve chair Jerome) Powell pledged that the Fed wouldn't hesitate to keep raising rates at a fast clip - and further than projected - if higher inflation continues to persist." Forbes. But the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is dragging its feet. "As the government's debt manager, RBI has a strong incentive to tolerate inflation as long as possible, and keep yields on long-dated government securities as as low as possible," wrote Pramit Bhattacharya. "In prioritising its debt management role, the central bank ends up compromising its inflation fighting role." Foreign investors are selling Indian shares. "Total withdrawals from the secondary market by foreign investors during the first half of 2022 stood at a staggering Rs 2.24 trillion." MC. "A return of foreign money to emerging markets hinges to a large part on inflation and interest rate hikes by central banks." "The world's central bankers are unleashing what may prove to be the most aggressive of tightening of monetary policy since the 1980s risking recessions and roiling financial markets as they rush to tackle the surge in inflation they didn't see coming." ET. As funds withdraw money from India in foreign currencies the exchange rate of the rupee falls which pushes up the cost of imports and inflation. The RBI has been selling dollars to prevent the rupee falling below the psychological 80/dollar level. ET. Our foreign exchange reserves fell to $580.252 billion as of 8 June. ET. "Policymakers are aware that India's reserves are 'borrowed'. Reserves of China, Japan and South Korea are 'earned' as a result of sustained current account surpluses. India's reserves are due to excessive capital inflows, which in theory can also leave," wrote Neelkanth Mishra. The RBI is fighting Mundell's Impossible Trinity which says that a central bank can have any two out of three - a fixed exchange rate, free movement of capital and an independent monetary policy - but not all three, wikipedia. Monetary policy is controlled by the government, capital outflow can't be stopped, so the rupee must fall. We are at the mercy of other central banks. Can't fight the impossible.
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