Tuesday, July 19, 2022

We hope they understand each other.

"The rupee hit 80 per dollar for the first time ever on Tuesday (yesterday), as traders focus on central bank meetings this week, especially the US Federal Reserve." NDTV. "The real fear is not that the rupee breached 80-to-a-dollar level, the fall could be even steeper, as a break of key psychological rate increases bets in favor of a free fall after, as we have witnessed since the rupee weakened beyond the 77 per dollar rate." "Indian rupee has declined by about 25 percent since December 31, 2014," which means it has declined from "63.33 against a dollar on December 31, 2014, to 79.41 on July 11, 2022, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said." ET. Mr Narendra Modi was first elected prime minister with absolute majority in the Lok Sabha in May 2014. wikipedia. "Global factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, soaring crude oil prices and tightening of global financial conditions are major reasons." These excuses are rather thin. The average cost of crude oil was $92 per barrel in 2008, $102 in 2011, $101 in 2012 and $98 per barrel in 2013, The Balance. From 2014, it dropped to below $50 per barrel, rising to $65 in 2021 and $94 this year. A weaker rupee is good as, "Indian exporters of carpets, handicrafts and engineering goods expect up to 10% benefit from the ongoing rupee depreciation." ET. The depreciation of the rupee "could increase cost of imports, raise overseas education costs, make foreign loans costly and has the potential to stoke inflation, which is already ruling at 7%." TOI. A research paper from the State Bank of India "projected that India's inflation rate is expected to come closer to 5% by March 2023." ET. "CPI inflation moderated slightly to 7.01 percent in June 2022 as compared to 7.04 percent in May 2022 due to moderation in food inflation. The June data now confirms the fact that peak has passed." "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been intervening in both the spot and forwards markets to slow the rupee's fall and has taken several measures in recent weeks to boost foreign fund inflows." ET. Why? The dollar has gained only 7% against the Indian rupee whereas the "Dollar index has gained 13% this year against six major currencies - euro, pound, yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Swedish krona." ET. Which means that our imports priced in dollars will become more expensive and increase inflation while our exports to 6 major economies will become more expensive and decline. This is happening because the US Fed has hiked its key interest by 1.5% since March, CNBC, while other nations are lagging. The RBI has an almost religious belief that India's economy can only grow if it keeps interest rates low, no matter what the inflation. RBI Governor insists that he is right to tolerate soaring inflation. ET. While the Finance Ministry insists that the economy is to grow by 8-8.5% in 2022-23. ET. India's forex reserves topped $642 billion in October 2021, TOI, but they had dropped to $580.3 billion by 8 July, ET. The rupee is falling, no it's strong; inflation is soaring, no it must be tolerated; growth will suffer, no it will be highest in the world; the Tower of Babel was lucid by comparison. Do they even understand each other? We certainly don't.  

No comments: