Saturday, July 30, 2022

Too many or too few?

"India is projected to surpass China as the world's most populous country in 2023, according to a report by the United Nations." DW. India's population is projected to reach 1.668 billion by 2050 to China's 1.317 billion. Which means 183 million will be added to the working age population by 2050. Fertility rate is expected to decline from 2.01 at present to 1.78 in 2050 and 1.69 in 2100. Which means an aging population requiring support. "The proportion of unmarried persons within the age bracket of 15-29 years has increased to 23 percent in 2019 from 17.2 percent in 2011, according to a government survey." ET. The percentage of males in that age group who never married rose from 20.8% in 2011 to 26.1% in 2019, and that of unmarried females rose from 13.5% in 2011 to 19.9% in the same period. "A recently published National Achievement Survey (NAS) revealed a nation-wide decline in student's learning levels across all grades and subjects tested." DH. "The 2021 survey reported an average learning level of 59 percent in grade 3; 49 percent in grade 5; 42 percent in grade 8 and 36 percent in grade 10. This shows a trend of steady decline in learning level as one moves from lower grades to higher grades. Such a trend is also observed for all subjects across all grades -- for instance there is a whopping 25 percentage points difference in mathematics scores from grade 3 to grade 10." "India recruited just 0.3% of the candidates who applied for government jobs in the last eight years, highlighting the unemployment crisis plaguing the world's fastest growing economy." ET. "The government hired 722,311 candidates out of 220 million applications it received since 2014, Jitendra Singh, a junior minister in the personnel ministry told parliament." "Data from private research firm Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt. show joblessness rose to 7.8% in June, from 7.1% in the previous month, with unemployment in the 20-24 age group at 43.7% the same month." The government has started an Agnipath scheme for the army, in which recruitment will be for 4 years, including 6 months of training followed by 3.5 years of deployment. wikipedia. At the end of 4 years they will retire with a tax-free lump sum of Rs 1.171 million. "This has set off a firestorm of protest." wrote Mihir Sharma. "The problem is that, for many young men in the most economically disadvantaged parts of India, the army is their only hope of a career - or, for that matter, of getting married, given that years of sex- selective abortions have caused the gender ratio in those parts of India to skew heavily male." Those who can afford it go abroad. "According to the Ministry of External Affairs, 2,61,406 students from India went abroad in 2020 and 71,769 left last year." TNIE. Poor education means no jobs, so can't marry, so fewer children. Is that good for India?

No comments: