Tuesday, July 12, 2022

Too big to fall.

"The economic crisis in Sri Lanka has engendered a melange of complex, seemingly sophisticated analyses - around populism, illiberalism, majoritarianism, social harmony (or the lack of it) and how they militate against sound policymaking. With the inevitable undertone that India should be 'careful' about falling into a similar trap," wrote Somnath Mukherjee. However, that is not possible because India has a "world class regulatory framework to manage external risks", is a "large, sophisticated economy" and does not issue International Sovereign Bonds (ISBs). Indeed. But, India is a poor country with per capita GDP at $2,277.4, World Bank. "India's per capita income is projected to take a minor lead of $38 over Bangladesh's in 2021-22." ETNow. "India is likely to trail its neighbor by $200 in 2027-2028, as per IMF projections." "India is set to become the world's most populous country next year, overtaking China with its 1.4 billion people, according to UN figures." BBC. The struggle for survival of such a huge population keeps the economy chugging along. "India's total employment fell by a massive 13 million to 390 million in June 2022 compared to 403 million in May, the lowest level since July last year." ET. "However, a huge part of the workforce consisting of the agricultural laborers and small traders exited the labor market resulting only in a small increase in unemployment rate last month." "In 2014, there were 300 to 400 startups in the country, but in eight years their number rose and now there are 70,000 recognised startups the prime minister said." BS. "Startups across the board are trying to keep the lights on as investors look to ring-fence their investments from the global turmoil," wrote Ranjani Raghavan & Anuj Suvarna. "In India, employees, as usual, have become the first casualties in the rush to cut costs as startups brace for the 'long winter'." "Almost every day, news reports appear on technology startups firing people," wrote Vivek Kaul. "Until just a few months ago, all was well." "The media was fawning over startup entrepreneurs. and politicians were using them to tell us that India's economic story was going great guns." "2021 was all about high risk, high return," wrote Vivek Kaul. "Stock prices continued to rally in 2021 with the Sensex closing at an all time high of 61,766 on 18 October." "2021 is the year when the average Indian discovered investing in cryptos." Prices have crashed. "The chaos has spooked investors, erasing more than $2 trillion in value in a matter of months - and wiping out the life savings of retail traders who bet big on crypto projects billed as safe investments." CNBC. India is not Sri Lanka. "But having done so much to inspire this retail investor mania, governments and central banks could face a major backlash when the next bear market inevitably arrives," wrote Ruchir Sharma. "There is logic. And then there is 'mogic' - the special kind of logic patented by our Prime Minister," wrote Yogendra Yadav. Sri Lanka is tiny. India is huge. Size matters.

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