Thursday, July 28, 2022

Lost opportunity.

"China's economy contracted (by 2.6%) in the three months ending in June compared with the previous quarter after Shanghai and other cities shut down to fight coronavirus outbreaks, but the government said a 'stable recovery' is underway after businesses reopened." VOA. "China's economic rebound may face greater uphill battle than Beijing would otherwise like the world to believe", but "Economists can't make heads or tails of China's current economic situation: GDP data indicate a sharp slowdown in Q2, but just weeks ago the Hang Seng hit a 3-month high in what some analysts hailed as signs of recovery." Fox. "Chinese authorities are promising to establish an initial rescue fund of $11.8 billion (80 billion yuan) to offset a looming crisis in the real estate sector," wherein "As home prices fell, some buyers found themselves paying mortgages on properties worth less than what they had agreed to pay." VOA. "As of July 18, homebuyers in 80 cities and 200 projects had threatened to stop mortgage payments." ET. "Across China, real estate developers are getting desperate - attempting to sell homes by whatever means possible, even going as far as accepting down-payments in wheat, garlic, watermelons and peaches to cater to farmers." "Total mortgages at stalled Chinese developments amount to 2 trillion yuan ($296 billion), according to analysts at GF Securities Co. and Deutsche Bank AG. In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF said, "Global real GDP growth will slow to 3.2% in 2022 from a forecast of 3.6% issued in April," and "The Fund cut its 2023 growth forecast to 2.9% from the April estimate of 3.6%, citing the impact of tighter monetary policy." BT. It also said that high inflation "could push the world economy to the brink of recession if left unchecked". "The Chinese economy thrives as a manufacturing powerhouse and the nation's products seem to be everywhere." Investopedia. "In addition to its low labor costs, China has become known as 'the world's factory' because of its strong business ecosystem, lack of regulatory compliance, low taxes and duties, and competitive currency practices." Chinese exports are bound to take a hit if the global economy goes into a recession or if growth slows down to negligible levels. So, "A report released...by the top Republican on the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee says that China targeted the Federal Reserve for nearly 10 years, working to recruit and influence employees in an effort to obtain information and monetary benefit and to influence US monetary policy." Also, "China-based employees of internet giant ByteDance have repeatedly accessed data about US Tik Tok users, reports say." ET. Despite this, "US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said...the Biden administration was looking to 'reconfigure' tariffs on Chinese imports." Reuters. Even if it's weak China still wins. If the US keeps rewarding it.

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