Sunday, July 24, 2022

It's to help poor countries.

"US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that US economic growth is slowing and she acknowledged the risk of a recession, but she said a downturn is not inevitable." Reuters. "US hiring remained robust in June, with 372,000 jobs created and the unemployment rate holding at 3.6%. It was the fourth straight month of job gains in excess of 350,000." "Top economist Mohamed El-Erian said inflation has likely hit its ceiling in the US after warning last month it had yet to peak." BI. "He noted that the global economy is slowing rapidly while central banks are tightening policy, which should have their intended effect on inflation." In the US, "Real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in the first quarter of 2022, faster than previously expected, according to the second estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). GDP decreased at an annual rate of 1.5% in the first quarter of this year." Fox. A recession was defined as two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction, but the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines it as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." Forbes. Inflation in the Euro zone hit a record high of 8.6% in June. CNBC. "The European Central Bank...increased interest rates for the first time in 11 years in an attempt to cool rampant inflation in the euro zone. The ECB, the central bank of the 19 nations that share the euro currency, surprised markets by pushing its benchmark rate up by 50 basis points, bringing its deposit rate to zero." CNBC. The US Fed has already hiked its rates by 25 basis points (bps) in March, by 50 bps in May and by 75 bps in June, for a total of 150 bps to take borrowing costs to 1.5-1.75%. CNBC. In 2008, one euro bought 1.47 dollars but has weakened to 1.08 in 2022. Macrotrends. If the Fed raises its Funds rates higher the euro could weaken further against the dollar. In the euro zone, "S&P Global's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, fell to 49.4 in July from 52.0 in June, well below all forecasts in a Reuters poll that had predicted a more modest dip to 51.0." Reuters. Raising interest rate is fraught with danger. Already the spread between 10-year government bonds of Germany and Italy has reached -240.6 bps. worldgovernmentbonds.com. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that Europe "shot itself in the lungs" by imposing sanctions on Russia. inshorts.com  First the EU allowed unfreezing of some funds of top Russian banks to "ease bottlenecks in the global trade of food and fertilizers". Reuters. Yesterday the EU decided "to allow transactions needed for Russian state-owned companies to sell oil to third countries". ET. By increasing global supplies of food, fertilizers and oil the EU is cunningly trying to reduce prices for itself. "A tanker carrying a liquid fertilizer from Russia is about to arrive in the United States." Reuters. There is no end to hypocrisy. There should be a special CAATSA for hypocrites.

No comments: