Wednesday, March 23, 2022

Will the US gain?

Oil costs more, "But there is another important commodity that needs attention, and that's wheat," wrote Vivek Kaul. Global trade in wheat was worth $44.1 billion in 2019. "Russia was the top exporter, with exports worth $8.1 billion. Ukraine was fifth with $3.1 billion. Hence, Russia and Ukraine accounted for a fourth of the world's total wheat exports." "Egypt is the world's largest importer of wheat," "followed by Indonesia, Turkey, the Philippines and Japan". "Countries in Africa make up for 28% of total imports." "In 2008, a spike in food prices caused riots in 48 countries," wrote Saeed Shah. "In Turkey, a sharp increase in the price of sunflower oil sparked panic buying. People climbed supermarket shelves and clambered over other shoppers to grab what remained." The price of oil has shot up. Benchmark Brent crude is trading at $120.9 per barrel this morning, oilprice.com. Goldman Sachs is "forecasting oil to average $130 a barrel for the rest of the year, nearly double the $71 a barrel average in 2021". "In 2021, Russia was the world's top exporter of nitrogen fertilizers and the second-largest supplier of both potassic and phosphorus fertilizers, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization," CNBC. "Russia which accounts for around 14% of global fertilizer exports, has temporarily suspended outgoing trade, which is expected to have a strong ripple effect across global food markets." "Higher fertilizer costs mean farmers will likely use less, reducing harvest yields and pushing up food prices around the globe, but hitting hardest in countries that can least afford it." "Sri Lanka ordered its military to post soldiers at hundreds of gas stations..., to help distribute fuel after a sudden rise in prices of key commodities and the accompanying shortages forced tens of thousands of people to queue for hours," Reuters. "Police said a man was stabbed to death...in an argument with the driver of a three-wheeled vehicle, while...three elderly men died while queuing to buy fuel in sweltering heat.." "The Indian Coast Guard apprehended six Sri Lankan nationals including three children from Rameswaram" trying to "migrate illegally amid the aggravating economic crisis in the island nation", abp. In Pakistan, "The consumer price index (CPI) in February rose 12.2% on year,...easing slightly from the previous month's two-year high of 13%," Reuters. "Turkey's annual inflation jumped more than expected to a two-decade high of 54.4% in February, fueled by a crash in the lira last year and soaring commodity prices," Reuters. So, blame Russia? "It has long been alleged that the regime change (in 2014) was planned and executed by the US to create a 'client state' right at Russia's doorstep. 'Ukraine on Fire' (a documentary) provides compelling evidence that this may indeed have been the case," wrote Sandipan Deb. Not just Ukraine, the world maybe on fire. Will the US gain from it? 

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