Quo vadis, whither goest thou?

"Amid the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, export demand for Indian wheat, corn and spices has shot up as supplies from these two nations have come to a grinding halt," DH. "The prices of wheat at the Kandla port have increased from Rs 2,200 per quintal to Rs 2,350-2,400 per quintal in the last four days," and "we think that the prices of wheat and wheat products may increase further in the next fortnight," said Sanjay Puri. Problem is, what we gain in exports we lose in imports. "The ongoing crisis in Ukraine is set to push the country's import bills beyond $600 billion mark this fiscal, given India's import dependence on crude oil, natural gas, gems and jewellery, edible oils and fertilisers, which can lead to a spike in inflation and a falling rupee, warns a report," ET.  "The report fears that the conflict can trigger capital flight from emerging markets, which can result in weakening of the rupee but it expects the higher forex ($632.95 billion as of February 18) to provide a cushion to a large extent." The rupee fell against the US dollar from an average of 40 to the dollar in 2007-08 to 61 in 2014-15, when Mr Narendra Modi became prime minister, to an average of 71 against the dollar in 2019-20, RBI. It fell sharply thereafter to over 76 to one dollar in mid-December 2021, exchangerates.org. One dollar bought Rs 76.4 this morning, xe.com. Since imports are bought in dollars, a weaker rupee increases prices for consumers in India, causing inflation. As a result, "Sales volume of fast-moving consumer goods fell 2.6% in December quarter from a year earlier, with inflation causing a sharp dip in rural demand after five quarters of positive growth, according to industry data released by NielsenIQ," Mint. Ukraine and Russia "ship more than 75% of global exports of sunflower oil," and "That's made a tight global market even tighter and sent prices of palm and soybean oil, the two most used oils, to records," ET. "India imports about 60% of its cooking oil needs." The price of crude oil has jumped, with benchmark Brent crude trading at $118 per barrel this morning, oilprice.com. "Country's crude oil import bill is set to cross $100 billion mark in the current financial year, which would be almost double that of last year's," NDTV. "India's sovereign bonds look among the most vulnerable to an oil-price shock among emerging debt markets across Asia," ET. "A sell-off in India's bond markets, including its corporate debt, is gathering pace as oil prices extended their rally above $110 per barrel." This will reduce prices of our bonds, increase yields and borrowing cost for government and companies. "The Economic Survey 2022 estimated India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate at 8.0-8.5 percent in 2022-23, which hinges on crude oil prices being in the range of $70-75 a barrel," moneycontrol. This when Brent crude was trading at $86.51 in January 2022, countryeconomy, and Goldman Sachs was predicting oil at $100 in 2022 and 2023, in December 2021, CNBC. Even so, the Reserve Bank (RBI) is likely to take a dovish view on inflation, Mint. To that, we might ask "Quo vadis (whither goest thou)"? Collins.