Wednesday, March 02, 2022

Whose growth is it?

"Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said he is inclined to support a 25 basis point rate increase at the March policy meeting but said the central bank is prepared to move more aggressively later if inflation does not abate as expected," Reuters. Why? "The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) judges that inflation of 2 percent over the longer run, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent with the Federal Reserve's mandate for maximum employment and price stability. When households and businesses can reasonably expect inflation to remain low and stable, they are able to make sound decisions regarding saving, borrowing and investment, which contributes to a well functioning economy." The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has a much higher mandate of 4% (+/-_ 2%) which means it can allow inflation to rise as long as it stays just below 6%, ET. India's retail inflation came in at a six-month high of 6.01% in January, BS. Despite that, "The RBI's rate-setting panel will likely continue with its accommodative stance and hold interest rates despite geopolitical risks in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict as it continues to take a dovish view on inflation," Mint. Maybe it is duplicity. When prices are rising, people tend to advance their purchases to preempt higher prices later, wrote Rajrishi Singhal. "Economist John Maynard Keynes called this the Paradox of Thrift: low inflation over the long-term encourages consumers to save more rather than consume. thereby dampening aggregate demand, leading to lower aggregate output and a weaker economy." Thus, RBI is seeking to force people to spend in the hope of increasing growth rate of the economy. "Food inflation was less than 1% in September-October 2021, but shot up to 5.4% overall and 5.9% in urban areas by January 2022," wrote Prof Himanshu, and prices of edible oils have risen 24% in the last 18 months. "Even though RBI has tried its best to downplay inflationary pressures, the uncomfortable reality is that consumer prices are currently almost 12% higher than they were before the pandemic," and "it is a good time to announce that we are cleared for take-off", wrote Aurodeep Nandi. Jayanth Rama Varma, "The lone dissenter among India's monetary policy setters sees the central bank's inflation-targeting credibility at risk by keeping policy loose for too long and focusing on the effects of the pandemic," ET. "Varma cited the fan chart of RBI that shows inflation hovering around 6%- 6.5% and maybe even 7% next fiscal year." The RBI is to be complimented for tolerating inflation because the rate of inflation is not an accurate reflection of our consumption because food has a weightage of 45.86% in our consumer price index (CPI) basket whereas the National Account Statistics (NAS) showed that food had a share of 32.8% in our consumption in 2019-2020, wrote Soumya Kanti Ghosh. That is an average, which hides the fact that the poor spend a lot more on food and food inflation hurts them badly. The real reason for Ghosh's satisfaction is that "a higher nominal GDP eats away government debt". TOI. Nominal GDP is real GDP plus inflation, Investopedia. Inflation reduces government debt by increasing tax collection. The government collected Rs 1.33 trillion in GST in 28 days in February, ET. Basically, the RBI is transferring money from the poor to the government. Who is growing?

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