Wednesday, March 09, 2022

Growth of what?

"The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday conducted a $5 billion dollar-rupee swap auction as part of its liquidity management initiative, leading to infusion of dollars and sucking out of the rupee from the financial system. The central bank's move will reduce the pressure on inflation and strengthen the rupee," TIE. Or, it could be the other way round. By removing Rs 390 billion rupees from the system the RBI increased the exchange of the rupee which will bring inflation down by making imports cheaper. The rupee is trading at 76.33 to the dollar at this moment, xe, after falling to 77.02 to one dollar on 7 March, BS. Foreign portfolio investors have sold Indian stocks worth Rs 340 billion in March so far, "putting severe pressure on the rupee". From December 2019 to January 2022 our average monthly consumer price index (CPI) inflation has been 5.9%, and 5.3% in the past one year, wrote Vivek Kaul. Despite RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das repeatedly insisting that inflation is transitory and will resolve once supply side problems are solved. Das has been consistent that supporting "growth is of paramount importance", BS. He has not explained whether the RBI has taken over function of the finance ministry and the government. However, "A central bank cannot have free international movement of capital, a fixed exchange rate and an independent monetary policy, all at the same time," Kaul. The "classic external-front trilemma". "It will have to let the rupee depreciate." After World War II, global population growth doubled to 2% and "productivity growth tripled to around 2%", wrote Ruchir Sharma. Now, global population growth and productivity growth have both fallen to around 1%. India's total debt burden has "spiked from 160% to 175% of GDP". Growth in developed countries like the US "will be lucky to top 2% in this decade. Lower income countries such as India need to lower their benchmark for success from 7% to 5% or better." Inflation is very good for the government, wrote Soumya Kanti Ghosh. Because, "higher nominal GDP eats away government debt". Nominal GDP is total production of goods and services at current prices, without adjusting for inflation, Khan. Since taxes are collected on nominal GDP this helps the government. "For example, fiscal deficit numbers would look much better in FY 2021-22 and FY 2022-23, on the back of an enlarged nominal GDP," TOI. "The surge in edible and crude oil prices are bound to feed into headline inflation, which has already breached the upper tolerance limit of RBI's 2% to 6% target range," ET. High prices resulted in a fall of 2.6% in sales volumes of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies, Mint. What growth does the RBI want? Prices or prosperity?

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