Friday, March 18, 2022

Others are not confused.

"Britain is facing double-digit inflation for the first time in 40 years, with mortgages, fuel and food prices set to soar," as "The Bank of England raised interest rates again today amid fears the rate of inflation will increase to around 8 percent in the coming months - or even hit double digits." DM. Rate of interest was increased from 0.5% to 0.75% and "The Bank admitted that inflation looks likely to sail past its prediction of a 7.25 percent peak, potentially by several percentage points, in the wake of the Ukraine war." In the US, "After keeping its benchmark interest rate anchored near zero since the beginning of the Covid pandemic, the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee said it will raise rates by a quarter of percentage point, or 25 basis points. That will bring the rate now into a range of 0.25%-0.5%," CNBC. "Along with the rate hikes, the committee also penciled in increases in each of the six remaining meetings this year, pointing to a consensus funds rate of 1.9% by year's end." According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.2% in 2011, gradually fell to a rise of 0.1% in 2015, rose by a high of 2.4% in 2018, by 1.2% in 2020 and then rose by 4.8% in 2021. The inflation rate was 1.4% in January 2021, gradually rose to 7.0% in November, fell to 4.7% in December and then jumped to 7.5% in January and 7.9% in February 2022, US Inflation Calculator. In India, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank (RBI) is confused as to what to do. The MPC has clung on to an interest rate of 4% for 20 months since March 2020, TOI. CPI inflation rose to 6.07% in February, highest in 8 months, ET, while wholesale price index (WPI) jumped by 13.11% in February, a double-digit rise for the 11th consecutive months, BS. "A chorus is growing among Indian monetary policy officials that the central bank's outlook on inflation and growth is being overtaken by events, including the war in Ukraine," ET. "While the central bank last month cited softening food prices as a reason for its benign 4.5% inflation forecast for next year, the conflict presents a negative shock to that outlook." Why? India has abundant food. "Indian traders have sewn up deals to export half a million tonnes of wheat in recent days, and dealers are expected to sign more contracts to take advantage of record-high global prices," ET. In December, "The government...said that India's rice exports in 2021-22 would likely surpass the record 17.72 million tonne achieved in 2020-21," ET. Clearly, we have excess of food when "Global food prices reached a 10-year high in 2021," and "Grain prices rose by 27 percent, hitting a level not seen since 2012," NDTV. Goldman Sachs was predicting oil at over $100 a barrel in December, well before the conflict in Ukraine, CNBC. Benchmark Brent crude is trading at $107.9 per barrel this morning, oilprice.com. The real trouble is, RBI's tolerance of inflation has led to a fall in the rupee which is trading at 75.96 to a dollar this morning, xe.com. RBI sold $5.135 billion to banks to mop up rupees from the market to try and prevent its fall, TIE. Foreign exchange reserves declined by $9.646 billion to $622.275 billion in the week ended March 11, from a lifetime high of $642.453 billion in week ended September 3, 2021, BS. Why is the RBI confused? Others are not.  

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