Saturday, March 19, 2022

This could be the perfect time.

"President Joe Biden on Friday warned President Xi Jinping of the 'implications and consequences' if China provides 'material support' to Russia as it wages an unprovoked war on Ukraine," Politico. "But the White House declined to say what those consequences would be and refused to say whether or not Biden made any specific asks of China, which has a close diplomatic relationship with Russia," DM. "White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the administration wasn't offering any more details on the conversation because the next move was China's." Actually, China made its position clear. " 'He who tied the bell to the tiger must take it off' and 'It takes two hands to clap'. With these simple dictums, Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday rejected US President Joe Biden's efforts to pressure Beijing into abandoning Russia on the Ukraine issue, while implicitly blaming Washington and its NATO allies for the crisis," wrote Chidanand Rajghatta. "In an apparent reference to the Beijing's disquiet over US utterances over Taiwan amid apprehensions in some quarters that China would do a Ukraine on Taiwan, the White House readout said Biden reiterated that US policy on Taiwan has not changed." The US does not have a formal defense treaty with Taiwan but has diplomatic relations under the Taiwan Relations Act, wikipedia. "Twice in recent months President Biden has publicly affirmed a US commitment to defend Taiwan should China attack. Both times, the White House walked his comments back, admitting that no such formal obligation exists. While the media was quick to pounce on Biden's 'gaffes,' it is likely that the Chinese received his message loud and clear: America has Taiwan's back," The Hill. The Chinese are known to be "inscrutable", as "certain aspects of Chinese society remain very difficult for foreigners to come to accept", wrote Jessica A Larsen-Wang. Hence, we don't know whether the Chinese government was trembling with fear at Biden's threats or rolling over with laughter. "The United States, however, has a force-multiplying advantage China can't match: capable allies." Which means NATO, which refused to help Ukraine against Russia. "We are not a part of this conflict," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said, Reuters. In fact it would make perfect sense for China to take over Taiwan at this time when the West is tied up with Ukraine. "Taiwan dominates the foundry market, or the outsourcing of semiconductor manufacturing," CNBC. "Much of Taiwan's dominance can be attributed to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co or TMSC, the world's largest foundry" that "accounted for 54% of foundry revenue globally last year". If China takes that over, much of manufacturing in the West could come to a halt. With inflation and the price of petrol hitting US families Biden is in a very tight spot. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have refused to talk to Biden about increasing oil supplies to bring down prices, News18. In fact, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman "stressed the importance of maintaining the OPEC+ agreement", Reuters. Which means no increase. "Residents of some European countries have begun mass purchases of goods fearful of food shortages due to supply chain disruption amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, British newspaper Financial Times reported," ET. Biden should settle with Putin now. Things could quickly get out of hand.

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