Will they scratch our backs, if we scratch theirs?

"The US doesn't want to see a 'rapid acceleration' in India's import from Russia of energy and other commodities prohibited by global sanctions regimes and there will be consequences for countries that attempt to circumvent the embargoes imposed following the invasion of Ukraine, US deputy national security adviser Daleep Singh said," HT. What "consequences"? We understand that 'Brown Sahib' has to bend his knee to his white massa, even though US President Joe Biden's cognitive decline is obvious to the world. "Earlier, about 40 Republicans demanded that Biden take a cognitive test and release the results to the public. The 79-year-old politician refused the test," BS. Singh "cautioned India against expecting Russia to come to the country's defence if China were to violate the Line of Actual Control (LAC) since Moscow and Beijing are now in a 'no limits partnership'." Then President Bill Clinton, also a Democrat imposed "tough economic sanctions" on India, BS, following tests of five nuclear weapons at Pokhran in May 1998, wikipedia. Democrat President Barack Obama supplied F16 fighter jets, night vision goggles and smart bomb equipment to Pakistan, TIE. Pakistan used those F16s and American supplied missiles to attack India in February 2019 after India hit terrorist training centers at Balakot in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, (POK), The Week. Surely, if India is not to deal with Russia because the US says so, then the US must not supply anything to Pakistan without asking India? Singh cautioned India not to expect any help from Russia if China attacks along the LAC. What sanctions did the US levy on China when Chinese soldiers brutally murdered 20 Indian soldiers in an ambush at Galwan Valley in Ladakh in March 2020? HT. Russia is offering oil at $35 discount to India. "However, it is no more opportunistic than Europe continuing to buy Russian gas more than a month into President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine. India may still end uup testing US and European Union tolerance if it agrees to rupee-ruble trade using Russia's communication channel SPFS to move funds. That direct challenge to Washington will not be in Delhi's long term interest," wrote Andy Mukherjee. However, China has already said it "won't join the United States and European governments in imposing financial sanctions on Russia," abcnews. "Reportedly, China has already started building an effective alternative to CHIPS -- the Clearing House Interbank Payments System. In addition the nation is rumored to be making its own Cross Border Interbank Payments System (CIPS)," nasdaq. Biden is hell bent on reviving the nuclear deal with Iran, first signed in 2015, Politico. Biden should worry about the recent visit to Israel by the foreign ministers of Egypt, Bahrain, Morocco and UAE. "Much of what bonds these countries together is a common stance on Iran, especially as negotiations to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal reached an advanced stage," CNN. Saudi Arabia wasn't there but is known to be anti-Iran. Can Israel and Arabs together attack Iran's nuclear installations? The price of oil would zoom to over $200 per barrel and Biden would go down in history as the man who single-handedly destroyed the global, European and US economies. Will the US scratch our backs if we scratch theirs? It's only fair. 

It's impossible because it is not possible.

"The RBI on Tuesday announced a $5 billion sell-buy swap auction on April 26, the second such auction is as many months. The first one, also of $5 billion, was done on March 8," TOI. "Under a sell-buy auction, the RBI sells dollar and takes in rupee from the buyers of the US currency. Through such auction, the central bank would be able to suck out liquidity from the banking system." This is aimed at increasing the exchange rate of the rupee against foreign currencies which will bring down the cost of imports and thus control inflation, while tightening liquidity will force banks to increase lending rates. "India's central bank may have to pay a bigger price for ignoring inflation by tightening interest rates much more aggressively later, like the Federal Reserve is doing now, according to the nation's largest asset manager," Mint. In the US, The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 7.9% year-on-year in February, CNBC. Yet, inflation in the US has been low historically, just 1.23% in 2020, macrotrends, and the Fed has been trying to bump it up, wrote Ajit Ranade. "Where was inflation hiding?" "The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 8,000 in January 2009 and is now over 34,000. That's up fourfold." "Housing prices have risen faster than US gross domestic product (GDP) in this decade." Thus, inflation was hiding in asset prices in plain sight. Savings of Indians have reached a record 4.8% in stocks, while it is 49% in real estate, TOI. "The Reserve Bank of India has confounded market expectations with its accommodative policy even as inflation breached its 6% limit for two months." However, "Amidst the ongoing invasion of Ukraine by Russia that has impacted global oil and commodity prices, bankers and analysts expect the RBI to continue holding rates in the next monetary policy review in April," Hindu. The RBI expects retail inflation to come down to 4.5% later this year, which would be within its target mandate of 2-6%, BS. The problem in India is that our CPI basket of goods and services contains items no longer used, so our monetary policy is based on wrong readings of inflation, FE. True, but outdated items constitute a very small part of the CPI basket, wrote Pramit Bhattacharya. "The 2017-18 National Sample Survey (NSS) consumer expenditure survey showed that the share of food in overall consumption went up 1.6 percentage points to 47.5% between 2011-12 and 2017-18. The survey results were junked by the government because they showed a dip in rural consumption." The RBI projects inflation expectations from a survey of 6,000 urban respondents, ignoring rural households, so its monetary policy is wrong. "When expectations of future inflation are so high, people start factoring this in their wage demands, leading to higher wage inflation," wrote Vivek Kaul. The RBI is trying to push up the rupee by selling dollars but foreign investors have sold equities worth Rs 1.14856 trillion this year. They will repatriate the proceeds in their domestic currencies. "The real problem will start if and when they start selling out of bonds as well." The RBI may think that it can make the trinity possible. Others have failed.      

What will they wear?

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited New Delhi last week and met with Foreign Minister S Jaishankar and NSA (National Security Adviser) Ajit Doval when "India pressed China for an early and complete disengagement of troops in the remaining areas along the LAC (Line of Actual Control) in eastern Ladhak", TOI. "Wang Yi arrived on Thursday night and unlike other dignitaries of his stature, was forced to move through the normal arrival lounge at the Delhi airport rather than the Air Force station," wrote Maj Gen Harsha Kakar. "It is reported that Wang Yi's request for a meeting with the prime minister was denied. Wang invited both EAM and NSA to visit Beijing but both turned it down till resolution of the standoff." "Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has said that during his recent visit to India, he 'keenly felt' that both sides had agreed to adhere to the leaders' consensus that the two countries are not a threat to each other," TOI. Does he mean "Don't threaten us or we will threaten you"? "EU Special Envoy for the Indo-Pacific Gabriele Vasentin said that war in Ukraine 'does not reduce the resolution of the EU to act in the Indo-Pacific'," Zee. Act how and against which country? "Visentin said 'price tag has been shown for breaking international order...and what is seen is a big neighbor attacking a smaller neighbor in an unprovoked way, not respecting territorial integrity and sovereignty of the state'." He could not be talking about China and Taiwan, could he? "Thousands of American and Filipino forces began...one of their largest combat exercises in years that will include live-fire maneuvers, aircraft assaults, urban warfare and beach landings in a showcase of US firepower in the norther Philippines near its sea border with Taiwan, military.com. Ukraine has land borders with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Moldova, all puppets of the US and hostile to Russia, and so has been supplied with lethal weapons by the US and Europe. Taiwan, on the other hand, is an island in the South China Sea "roughly 100 miles (160 km) off the coast of Southeastern China", Britannica. What will the US and EU do if China surrounded Taiwan? The Chinese navy has 355 ships consisting of "major surface combatants, submarines, aircraft carriers, ocean-going amphibious ships, mine warfare ships and fleet auxiliaries", USNI News. "This figure does not include 85 patrol combatants and crafts that carry anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCM)." As for financial sanctions, the US imported $541.53 billion worth of goods from China in 2021, tradingeconomics. Americans will have no clothes, shoes or smartphones if they stop trade with China. The EU imported $442.61 billion worth of goods in 2020 and if they stop that inflation will go into triple digits. The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party will be held in the second half of 2022, wikipedia, at which Xi Jinping will seek a third term as leader. However, there will probably be fierce opposition because of the weaker economy and the resurgence of the coronavirus, BS. Prime Minister Li Keqiang has already said he intends to step down on completion of his term in office, News18. If Xi can unite Taiwan with the mainland he can be leader for life. "There is a tide in the affairs of men" WS. Or in the South China Sea? 

Cassettes and dung cakes for policy.

"When was the last time you hopped on to a horse cart? Or bought video cassettes to watch movies, enjoyed a boat ride, used dung cakes to cook? If the answer eludes you, then the retail inflation gauge, comprising 299 items, including scores of such 'outdated' goods and services with inflated weight, is no longer a true barometer of price pressure in the economy," wrote Banikinkar Pattanayak. Economists have advised revision of the items that make up the consumer price index (CPI) but the government ignored their advice. "Household (HH) consumption pattern has changed," which is "reflected in a sharp fall in the share of food items by about 10.8 and 9.6 percentile points (pp) to 48.6% and 38.5% in rural and urban India respectively over the last decade," wrote Sachchidanand Shukla. This is likely to over or underestimate CPI inflation and lead to faulty monetary policy. Why is the government not updating the CPI list when in 2018, "The government...lowered the GDP growth rates for a majority of the previous 10 years of the UPA regime" by changing the base year from 2004-05 to 2011-12 "to downgrade the GDP growth from 2005-06 to 2011-12", DNA. This was controversial because it used the ministry of corporate affairs (MCA) database to calculate the back series but the database is not available before 2006-07, as acknowledged by the Central Statistical Office (CSO) which said, "In certain cases, owing to the limitations of the availability of data, either splicing method or ratios observed in the estimates in base year 2011-12 have been applied," HT. So, it was partly guesswork. Suspicion was further aroused because growth was falling from 8.1% in Q4 of FY18 (1 Jan-31 Mar 2018) to 5% in Q1 of FY20 (1 Apr-30 Jun 2019) so that economists in India and abroad expressed concern about the quality of data and political interference in interpretation, BT. In January 2019, Acting Chairman of the National Statistical Commission (NSC), PC Mohanan and member of NSC, J Meenakshi resigned because the government suppressed jobs numbers showing that "India's unemployment rate in the year ending June 2018 rose to 6.1 percent, its highest level in at least 45 years", NDTV. So why is the government uninterested in updating the CPI list? It is possible that, since items like video cassettes, dung cakes and tongas are no longer used their prices remain constant and thus drag the CPI inflation rate down. Why conceal inflation? Because high inflation rates raise "the nominal GDP numbers, improve tax collections (at least in nominal terms) and bring down the debt to GDP ratio (by inflating the denominator)", wrote Pramit Bhattacharya. Maybe, that is why RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das is confident that inflation will come down to 4.5% from above 6% now, Mint. Since no one can find out.   

All about lines.

"Ukraine is prepared to discuss adopting a neutral status as part of a peace deal with Russia but such a pact would have to be guaranteed by third parties and put to a referendum, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said," Straits Times. "He said Ukraine refused to discuss certain other Russian demands, such as the demilitarisation of the country," and said he wanted to reach a "compromise" over the eastern Donbass region. It's a mystery why he did not conclude a peace deal with Russia earlier since he was elected president in 2019, Britannica. After all, Putin has been warning about NATO's eastward expansion for decades, Conversation. Ukraine was his 'red line'. Why wait till so much destruction of his own country and after more than 3.7 million Ukrainians have fled to neighboring countries, Pew Research. "Ukraine's military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, has warned that Russia is trying to apply what he called the 'Korean scenario' to Ukraine, having failed to take the capital and depose the legitimate government," BBC. "He said Russian President Vladimir Putin would try to impose a demarcation line separating eastern and southern regions from the rest of Ukraine, since he would not be able to absorb the whole country." Or, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which were parts of Georgia, but have been under Russia's protection since 2008, wikipedia. The BBC should be familiar with lines. After all, a Britisher called Sir Cyril Radcliffe drew the lines separating India from East and West Pakistan, resulting in the deaths of millions, Zee. And the Sykes-Picot line in the middle-east divided areas under French and British influence, wikipedia. The film 'Ukraine on Fire' "clinically documents the country's chequered history -- a powerful fascist movement, whose leaders like Stepan Bandera are still national heroes for many; Ukrainian Nazi regiments joining Hitler's army against the Soviets; the terrible massacres of Ukrainian Jews; the role of neo-Nazis in the 2014 uprising and the influence they still have, including the notorious Azov militia that works closely with the Ukrainian Army," wrote Sandipan Deb. Irony - Zelensky is a Jew. "The owner of a war-zone mobile hospital in eastern Ukraine has told a Ukrainian TV interviewer that he has instructed his doctors to 'castrate' captured Russian soldiers," Daily Mail. He said he is a great humanist , "But now [I gave] very strict orders to castrate all [captured Russian] men, because they are cockroaches, not people." We don't know if he trained under Josef Mengele, wikipedia, who was also known for his humanist actions. Ukraine has a political party called 'Opposition Platform for Life'. "With 43 seats in parliament, it is the largest opposition party," wrote Tucker Carlson. Zelensky has banned the party. "Opposition Platform for Life is now prohibited from 'all activity within Ukraine'." "He did this not just to Opposition Platform for Life, but to ten other political parties that he believed were insufficiently loyal to him. They're all illegal now." This is what the great British and American democracies are defending. Unscrupulous hypocrites.   

Hiding behind aliases.

"Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman...said that unlike several developed nations, the Modi government did not raise taxes to fund the recovery of the COVID-hit economy and focused on raising public expenditure as it has a multiplier effect," BS. Maybe because she had already increased peak effective tax rate to 42.7%, higher than 40% in the US, in the 2019 Budget, before the pandemic struck, moneycontrol. This was done by adding a surcharge of 10% on income of Rs 5-10 million, increasing to a surcharge of 37% on income over Rs 50 million, IT Dept. Isn't it strange that despite her generosity, "Over six lakh (600,000) Indians have given up their citizenship in the last five years, according to the data by the Ministry of External Affairs, 40% of being in the US," TOI. Why did a rich Gujarati family pay $100,000 to people smugglers to get to the US illegally and tragically froze to death in Canada? TOI. "The Centre earned nearly Rs 8.02 lakh crore (Rs 8.02 trillion) from taxes on petrol during the last three fiscal years," Sitharaman informed the Parliament in December 2021. After reducing excise duty on petrol and diesel in November 2021 by Rs 5 we are still paying 50% as tax on the price of petrol and 40% on diesel, BT.  She "also took a dig at the Congress by recalling that the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi had prescribed marginal rate of taxation to 93.5 percent on income above Rs 2 lakh (Rs 200,000) and India's first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru for attributing price rise in 1951 to Korean war, though India was not very much globally inter-connected." "Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) - the fuel that helps aeroplanes fly - was hiked by Rs 17,135.63 per kl, or 18.3 percent, to Rs 110,666.29 per kl in the national capital," which is the highest ever, ET. "With the hike of 50 paise in the price of petrol and 55 paise increase on diesel on Sunday (today) the rates have been increased by Rs 3.70 per liter in five days," Mint. India may not have been globally integrated during Nehru's time but we still had to import oil and Rs 200,000 during Indira Gandhi's time would be worth around Rs 2 million today, according to the rupee dollar exchange rate, wikipedia. As for infrastructure, "A total of 443 infrastructure projects, each entailing Rs 150 crore (Rs 1.5 billion) or more investment, have been hit by cost overruns totalling over Rs 4.45 lakh crore (Rs 4.45 trillion)," according to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), FE. Some people must be celebrating. Then there is the RBI, the proverbial Aladin's cave. The Reserve Bank (RBI) was forced to transfer an unprecedented Rs 1.76 trillion to the government, including Rs 1.23 trillion as dividend, in August 2019, Mint. The RBI transferred Rs 991.22 billion for the 9 months from July 2020 to March 2021, almost double of Rs 535.11 billion that Sitharaman wanted, BS. We are waiting for this year's bonanza with bated breath. It may not be labeled as tax but it is still our money. Using an alias is no conciliation. For us.

Economy will decide. Whose?

"Russia's defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on fully 'liberating' eastern Ukraine's Donbass region," ET. "The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war." Or maybe they have achieved most of what they set out to do. On 25 February, "Ukraine's military said...that Russian forces aimed to block the Ukrainian capital Kyiv while creating a land corridor on the southern coast towards the annexed Crimea peninsula and the Transdniestria region of Moldova," Reuters. "Ukraine's Defence Ministry said on Friday (yesterday) Russian forces had managed partially to create a land corridor to Crimea from territory in Ukraine's Donetsk region," National Post. The latest map by the rabidly anti-Russian BBC shows that Russia now controls territory along its border with Ukraine, linked Donetsk with Crimea and can cut off Ukraine's access to the Black Sea if it takes Mykolaiv and Odessa. "Russian news agencies quoted the defence ministry as saying that Russian-backed separatists now controlled 93% of Ukraine's Luhansk region and 54% of the Donetsk region - the two areas that jointly make up the Donbass," ET. According to the UK Russia is losing the war. "Ukrainian forces are re-occupying towns previously seized by Moscow as Russian army morale continues to fall, according to UK officials," Huffingtonpost. But, there is another side to the war. Commodity prices are soaring. Brent crude is trading at $120 a barrel today, oilprice.com. "UN chief Antonio Guterres has warned that the conflict could reverberate far beyond Ukraine, causing a 'hurricane of hunger and a meltdown of the global food system'," ET. "President Biden said...that a food shortage is 'gonna be real' following the sanctions that were placed on Russia by the US government," Fox. Inflation in the UK rose to 6.2% in February and "rising energy prices could push inflation to a 40-year high of 8.7% in the final three months of 2022," BBC. "The OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility) still expects real household disposable incomes to tumble by 2.2 percent per person in 2022-23 - the largest annual fall since ONS (Office for National Statistics) records began in 1956," DM. Meanwhile, the Solomon Islands confirmed that it is to create a security partnership with China, Reuters. "North Korea has announced that it successfully launched its largest intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in a test on Thursday," BBC. Chinese President Xi Jinping has vowed reunification with Taiwan but has not directly mentioned force, BBC. Will the US and NATO take on China if it attacks Taiwan now? Russia's economy is suffering, but how long can Americans hold out? Weapons will not help the US or UK economies. As a previous Democrat President said, "It's the economy, stupid," wikipedia.

Open mouth threatens.

Actions of the US Federal Reserve resemble those of developing countries. "Despite ample evidence to the contrary starting almost a year ago, the Fed stuck to its 'transitory' characterization of inflation until the end of November," wrote Mohamed A El-Erian. In some developing countries the central bank tends to stick to low interest rate until inflation becomes entrenched and then they are in a dilemma on whether to risk a recession in trying to control it. Last week, the US Fed increased its Funds rate by 25 basis points, and projected six more increases this year, CNBC. Then, on 22 March Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed is ready to move "more aggressively" if required, meaning raising rate by 50 basis points, BS. The Fed has lost a lot of credibility by not reacting sooner, yahoo. Markets have ignored the Fed and have moved higher. Yesterday, the Dow Jones rose by 1.02%, the Nasdaq by 1.93% and the S&P by 1.43%, CNN. "The idea was to ease off the accelerator and start tapping the brakes softly instead of having to do what the market is asking for now and Powell acknowledged on Monday, having to hit the brakes harder at this late stage," El-Erian. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) seems to be following the same track. It has kept interest rate stuck at 4% and maintained an accommodative stance for 24 months since March 2020, TOI. Even as retail inflation rose to an 8-month high at 6.07% in February 2022, ET, it has resorted to hot air, known as 'Open Mouth Operations' (OMO),  to control the market. OMO is when the central bank broadcasts what it "believes interest rates and inflation should be in the short- and medium-term" and "the markets react, which can lead to an adjustment in interest rates without the need for central bank action," Investopedia. Despite evidence to the contrary, the RBI "does not foresee inflation to breach its upper tolerance limit of 6% and expects it to moderate going forward, governor Shaktikanta Das said. Petrol and diesel prices have been hiked by Rs 0.80 for the third time this week. "Both petrol and diesel prices have so far hiked by Rs 2.40 per liter this week," BS. Soaring transport costs will surely push cost of all goods and services higher. "We will ensure abundant liquidity to meet the requirements of the productive sectors of the economy," said Das. "RBI resisted all temptations of moving away from the accommodative stance to support growth. We foresaw inflation moderating going forward." He is not saying that prices will fall but that they will increase by a lower percentage over the soaring prices today. As a result, "As always, poor workers in the informal sector will be hit hardest," and "The biggest gainer will be the country's biggest bond-issuer: The government," wrote Pramit Bhattacharya. The RBI "will continue to focus on smooth completion of the government borrowing programme, market participants also have a stake in orderly evolution of the yield curve. It is expected that market participants will engage responsibly and contribute to cooperative outcomes that benefit all," threatens OMO. In other words, "Bond dealers better swallow losses, or else." Will open mouth swallow the economy? We will see.   

Will the US gain?

Oil costs more, "But there is another important commodity that needs attention, and that's wheat," wrote Vivek Kaul. Global trade in wheat was worth $44.1 billion in 2019. "Russia was the top exporter, with exports worth $8.1 billion. Ukraine was fifth with $3.1 billion. Hence, Russia and Ukraine accounted for a fourth of the world's total wheat exports." "Egypt is the world's largest importer of wheat," "followed by Indonesia, Turkey, the Philippines and Japan". "Countries in Africa make up for 28% of total imports." "In 2008, a spike in food prices caused riots in 48 countries," wrote Saeed Shah. "In Turkey, a sharp increase in the price of sunflower oil sparked panic buying. People climbed supermarket shelves and clambered over other shoppers to grab what remained." The price of oil has shot up. Benchmark Brent crude is trading at $120.9 per barrel this morning, oilprice.com. Goldman Sachs is "forecasting oil to average $130 a barrel for the rest of the year, nearly double the $71 a barrel average in 2021". "In 2021, Russia was the world's top exporter of nitrogen fertilizers and the second-largest supplier of both potassic and phosphorus fertilizers, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization," CNBC. "Russia which accounts for around 14% of global fertilizer exports, has temporarily suspended outgoing trade, which is expected to have a strong ripple effect across global food markets." "Higher fertilizer costs mean farmers will likely use less, reducing harvest yields and pushing up food prices around the globe, but hitting hardest in countries that can least afford it." "Sri Lanka ordered its military to post soldiers at hundreds of gas stations..., to help distribute fuel after a sudden rise in prices of key commodities and the accompanying shortages forced tens of thousands of people to queue for hours," Reuters. "Police said a man was stabbed to death...in an argument with the driver of a three-wheeled vehicle, while...three elderly men died while queuing to buy fuel in sweltering heat.." "The Indian Coast Guard apprehended six Sri Lankan nationals including three children from Rameswaram" trying to "migrate illegally amid the aggravating economic crisis in the island nation", abp. In Pakistan, "The consumer price index (CPI) in February rose 12.2% on year,...easing slightly from the previous month's two-year high of 13%," Reuters. "Turkey's annual inflation jumped more than expected to a two-decade high of 54.4% in February, fueled by a crash in the lira last year and soaring commodity prices," Reuters. So, blame Russia? "It has long been alleged that the regime change (in 2014) was planned and executed by the US to create a 'client state' right at Russia's doorstep. 'Ukraine on Fire' (a documentary) provides compelling evidence that this may indeed have been the case," wrote Sandipan Deb. Not just Ukraine, the world maybe on fire. Will the US gain from it? 

A winning trifecta?

"Soaring consumer prices, supply chain shocks, rising energy costs and a hawkish Federal Reserve determined to bring inflation under control: These are the worrisome attributes of the US economy that have some experts sounding the alarm over a possible return to 1970s-style 'stagflation'," Fox. "Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, a prominent inflation hawk, has accused the Fed of misinterpreting the inflation spike and waiting too long to take action to quell the price spike." "The US central bank must move 'expeditiously' to bring too-high inflation to heel, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Monday, adding that it could use bigger-than-usual interest rate hikes if needed to do so," ET. Last week the Fed raised its Funds Rate by 25 basis points and signaled six more rate hikes this year, ET. "By the end of next year, Fed policymakers expect the the central bank's overnight interest rate to be at 2.8%, bringing borrowing costs to a level where they would actually start biting into growth." "Despite volatile markets and inconsistent economies triggered by Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has played down concerns about eurozone stagflation," AN. "Even in the bleakest scenario" she expects growth at 2.3%. "There is no prospect of the economy falling into a stagflation vortex and retail inflation is expected to moderate going forward," Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said. "In a similar manner, the governor also expects the rupee to remain stable," BS. Not only does the RBI expect inflation to remain below 6% but also expects it to fall going forward, he said, LM. We don't know if his predictions are based on profound knowledge of macroeconomics and geopolitics or on reading the tea leaves of his morning cuppa but a strong dose of bromides is soothing for Indian markets. Petrol and diesel prices were increased by Rs 0.80 and the price of cooking gas by Rs 50 to Rs 949.5 for a 14.2 kg cylinder yesterday, TIE. Petrol and diesel prices were hiked by Rs 0.80 again this morning, TIE. Since transport costs affect all goods and services, we can expect consumer price index (CPI) to rise further. "The biggest gainer will be the country's biggest bond issuer: The government," wrote Pramit Bhattacharya. "The government can choose to raise taxes explicitly to fund its deficit, bringing down its debt levels. Or it can allow inflation to rise, which will raise the nominal GDP numbers, improve tax collections (at least in nominal terms), and bring down the debt to GDP ratio (by inflating the denominator)." "Keeping an accommodative stance is a key component of RBI's strategy to manage this tension. In other words, the high levels of government debt limit the autonomy of RBI in using monetary policy tools to fight inflation: a phenomenon economists describe as 'fiscal dominance'." In short, the RBI has become redundant. "As always, poor workers in the informal sector will be hit hardest as their ability to bargain for higher wages is relatively weak, and they have no recourse to any inflation hedge." These people will be grateful for any handouts they get, which was one of the reasons why the BJP won UP assembly elections recently, TIE. Rising prices, a hamstrung RBI and selective handouts makes a winning trifecta. Until it goes out of control.  

Shake and soul.

"US President Joe Biden said Monday that India was an exception among Washington's allies with its 'shaky' response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine," "This includes unprecedented sanctions aimed at crippling Russia's currency, international trade and access to high-tech goods. However, unlike fellow members of the Quad group -- Australia, Japan and the United States -- India continues to purchase Russian oil and has refused to join votes condemning Moscow at the United Nations." Biden seems to be pursuing a personal vendetta against Putin. "On the campaign trail, he said repeatedly that he knew Putin didn't want him to win," CNN. CNN is known as ardent supporter of the Democratic Party and was accused of publishing "fake news" by Donald Trump to help Biden win the election, wikipedia. "Biden has often told a story of a meeting with Putin at the Kremlin in 2011, when he was vice president, and telling the Russian leader, "I am looking in your eyes and don't think you have a soul." What leader of a nation talks to another in language of a religious fanatic? Biden has called Putin a "war criminal", "a murderous dictator" and a "pure thug". Biden was vice president 2011 when the US and NATO murdered thousands of civilians in Libya but have never bothered to count them. Now, there are social media posts claiming that NATO killed half a million in Libya. "One tweet with over 27,000 retweets (here) reads, "The most air strikes ever launched in Africa by NATO was more than 10,000 on Libya in 2011 with over 500,000 Civilian Casualties. When NATO was questioned about the civilian Casualties and the death of Gaddafi children, they insisted it was collateral damage and normal in wars," Reuters. "Russia, China, India, Brazil and South Africa -- the so-called BRICS nations -- have repeatedly accused NATO of using the mandate to protect civilians as a cover to pursue regime change by aiding rebel forces who ousted and eventually killed Libya's long-time leader Muammar Gaddafi." That makes Biden a "war criminal" and a "murderous thug". If Reuters thinks 500,000 is greatly exaggerated why doesn't it give us a realistic estimate of civilian deaths in 2011? "Amid a worldwide chorus of condemnation, much of Africa has either pushed back or remained noticeably quiet. Twenty-five of Africa's 54 nations abstained or didn't record a vote in the UN General Assembly earlier this month condemning Russia," TOI. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa blamed NATO for the war in Ukraine. "The war could have been avoided if NATO had heeded the warnings from among its own leaders and officials over the years that its eastward expansion would lead to greater, not less, instability in the region," he said in Parliament. "Former defense secretary Robert Gates once said that 'Biden has been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades'," Dawn, as shown by his utterly shambolic flight from Afghanistan. To cover that he is destroying Ukraine to satisfy his hatred of Russia. Who has no soul? Not clear, is it?

If only it belonged to us.

The conflict in Ukraine may seem remote from India. "Exports to the region are just 1 percent and the imports from the region are 2 percent," moneycontrol. But, "Russia accounts for almost 90 percent of India's sunflower oil requirement, nearly 17 percent of potash fertiliser and 60 percent of NPK fertiliser imports." The biggest risk is the price of oil. The government raised excise duties on fuel when prices were low and reduced them by Rs 5 on petrol and Rs 10 on diesel when crude oil prices rose to $75-80 dollars a barrel. The benchmark Brent crude is trading at $111 per barrel this morning, oilprice.com. The government needs to reduce duties further to control inflation and prevent further reduction in consumer demand. But that could lead to higher fiscal deficit. "A wider fiscal with a tightening monetary policy globally could also lead to some currency depreciation." The rupee has fallen to 76.12 against the dollar this morning, xe.com. The rupee has fallen from a monthly average of 41 to the dollar in April 2007 to over 76 in March 2022, Mint. The weaker rupee is good for exports but increases the price of imports and adds to inflation. "Consumers may have to pay more for their daily essential items with FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) mulling another round of price hike to offset the impact of an unprecedented level of inflation in commodity prices such as wheat, palm oil and packaging materials," ET. "India's goods exports rose 25.1% year on year to $34.57 billion in February", while "imports during the month jumped 36% to $55.43 billion", so that "the trade deficit widened to $20.88 billion from $13.12 billion in the year-ago period", ET. Higher payments in dollars convert to much higher prices in rupees because one dollar now buys more rupees. Central banks of other countries have been increasing interest rates to cap rising inflation, except for the People's Bank of China (PBOC) which was the only one among major economies to reduce its rate by 10 basis points in January 2022, global rates.com. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adopted different tactics. It has clung on to its interest rate of 4% for 24 months since March 2020 despite rising prices, TOI, to help the government to borrow cheaply. To control prices it is trying to manipulate the value of the rupee higher against other currencies. "The Country's foreign exchange reserves fell by $9.64 billion to $622.275 billion during the week ended March 11, 2022, as the rupee depreciated against the US dollar amid the rise in crude oil prices and capital outflows due to sustained selling by foreign portfolio investors (FPI)," TIE. The RBI may think that it is genius while other central banks are fools. Time will tell. Perhaps, it does not understand that it is the Reserve Bank of India, and not the Reserve Bank of the government. Must be getting very good salaries.  

This could be the perfect time.

"President Joe Biden on Friday warned President Xi Jinping of the 'implications and consequences' if China provides 'material support' to Russia as it wages an unprovoked war on Ukraine," Politico. "But the White House declined to say what those consequences would be and refused to say whether or not Biden made any specific asks of China, which has a close diplomatic relationship with Russia," DM. "White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the administration wasn't offering any more details on the conversation because the next move was China's." Actually, China made its position clear. " 'He who tied the bell to the tiger must take it off' and 'It takes two hands to clap'. With these simple dictums, Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday rejected US President Joe Biden's efforts to pressure Beijing into abandoning Russia on the Ukraine issue, while implicitly blaming Washington and its NATO allies for the crisis," wrote Chidanand Rajghatta. "In an apparent reference to the Beijing's disquiet over US utterances over Taiwan amid apprehensions in some quarters that China would do a Ukraine on Taiwan, the White House readout said Biden reiterated that US policy on Taiwan has not changed." The US does not have a formal defense treaty with Taiwan but has diplomatic relations under the Taiwan Relations Act, wikipedia. "Twice in recent months President Biden has publicly affirmed a US commitment to defend Taiwan should China attack. Both times, the White House walked his comments back, admitting that no such formal obligation exists. While the media was quick to pounce on Biden's 'gaffes,' it is likely that the Chinese received his message loud and clear: America has Taiwan's back," The Hill. The Chinese are known to be "inscrutable", as "certain aspects of Chinese society remain very difficult for foreigners to come to accept", wrote Jessica A Larsen-Wang. Hence, we don't know whether the Chinese government was trembling with fear at Biden's threats or rolling over with laughter. "The United States, however, has a force-multiplying advantage China can't match: capable allies." Which means NATO, which refused to help Ukraine against Russia. "We are not a part of this conflict," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said, Reuters. In fact it would make perfect sense for China to take over Taiwan at this time when the West is tied up with Ukraine. "Taiwan dominates the foundry market, or the outsourcing of semiconductor manufacturing," CNBC. "Much of Taiwan's dominance can be attributed to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co or TMSC, the world's largest foundry" that "accounted for 54% of foundry revenue globally last year". If China takes that over, much of manufacturing in the West could come to a halt. With inflation and the price of petrol hitting US families Biden is in a very tight spot. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have refused to talk to Biden about increasing oil supplies to bring down prices, News18. In fact, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman "stressed the importance of maintaining the OPEC+ agreement", Reuters. Which means no increase. "Residents of some European countries have begun mass purchases of goods fearful of food shortages due to supply chain disruption amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, British newspaper Financial Times reported," ET. Biden should settle with Putin now. Things could quickly get out of hand.

Others are not confused.

"Britain is facing double-digit inflation for the first time in 40 years, with mortgages, fuel and food prices set to soar," as "The Bank of England raised interest rates again today amid fears the rate of inflation will increase to around 8 percent in the coming months - or even hit double digits." DM. Rate of interest was increased from 0.5% to 0.75% and "The Bank admitted that inflation looks likely to sail past its prediction of a 7.25 percent peak, potentially by several percentage points, in the wake of the Ukraine war." In the US, "After keeping its benchmark interest rate anchored near zero since the beginning of the Covid pandemic, the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee said it will raise rates by a quarter of percentage point, or 25 basis points. That will bring the rate now into a range of 0.25%-0.5%," CNBC. "Along with the rate hikes, the committee also penciled in increases in each of the six remaining meetings this year, pointing to a consensus funds rate of 1.9% by year's end." According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.2% in 2011, gradually fell to a rise of 0.1% in 2015, rose by a high of 2.4% in 2018, by 1.2% in 2020 and then rose by 4.8% in 2021. The inflation rate was 1.4% in January 2021, gradually rose to 7.0% in November, fell to 4.7% in December and then jumped to 7.5% in January and 7.9% in February 2022, US Inflation Calculator. In India, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank (RBI) is confused as to what to do. The MPC has clung on to an interest rate of 4% for 20 months since March 2020, TOI. CPI inflation rose to 6.07% in February, highest in 8 months, ET, while wholesale price index (WPI) jumped by 13.11% in February, a double-digit rise for the 11th consecutive months, BS. "A chorus is growing among Indian monetary policy officials that the central bank's outlook on inflation and growth is being overtaken by events, including the war in Ukraine," ET. "While the central bank last month cited softening food prices as a reason for its benign 4.5% inflation forecast for next year, the conflict presents a negative shock to that outlook." Why? India has abundant food. "Indian traders have sewn up deals to export half a million tonnes of wheat in recent days, and dealers are expected to sign more contracts to take advantage of record-high global prices," ET. In December, "The government...said that India's rice exports in 2021-22 would likely surpass the record 17.72 million tonne achieved in 2020-21," ET. Clearly, we have excess of food when "Global food prices reached a 10-year high in 2021," and "Grain prices rose by 27 percent, hitting a level not seen since 2012," NDTV. Goldman Sachs was predicting oil at over $100 a barrel in December, well before the conflict in Ukraine, CNBC. Benchmark Brent crude is trading at $107.9 per barrel this morning, oilprice.com. The real trouble is, RBI's tolerance of inflation has led to a fall in the rupee which is trading at 75.96 to a dollar this morning, xe.com. RBI sold $5.135 billion to banks to mop up rupees from the market to try and prevent its fall, TIE. Foreign exchange reserves declined by $9.646 billion to $622.275 billion in the week ended March 11, from a lifetime high of $642.453 billion in week ended September 3, 2021, BS. Why is the RBI confused? Others are not.  

55 miles of Bering Strait.

"Britain's Foreign Secretary Liz Truss says she can confirm that British-Iranian dual nationals Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliff and Anoosheh Ashoori are returning to the UK after spending years detained in Iran," El Arabiya. "Iranian state media reported that Britain had 'settled a long-overdue debt' of $530 million." "The late Iranian Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi paid the sum of 400 million British pounds for Chieftain tanks that were never delivered." This despite, "As many as 13 missiles struck Iraq's northern city of Erbil...near the US consulate, Iraqi security officials said," opindia.com. "According to the reports, the US defence official said missiles were launched at the city from neighboring Iran, adding that no injuries have been reported so far." Iran fired more than a dozen missiles at two Iraqi bases housing US troops after the assassination of Gen Qasem Soleimani by the US, USA Today. The United States has imposed an arms ban and an almost total economic embargo on Iran, which includes companies doing business with Iran, a ban on all Iranian-origin imports, sanctions on Iranian financial institutions, and an almost total ban on selling aircraft or repair parts to Iran aviation companies," wikipedia. Apparently sanctions do not preclude missiles or paying ransom money. With 5,542 sanctions, Russia is now the most sanctioned country in the world, Firstpost. In an attempt to completely destroy its economy Russian banks have been excluded from the SWIFT system of international transfer of money, Reuters. Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly warned that he will not allow NATO missiles right across Russia's border with Ukraine, Reuters. Recently, President Volodymyr Zelenski of Ukraine said he had no intention of pressing for membership of NATO and even hinted that he was open to compromise on the 2 pro-Russian territories of Donetsk and Lugansk, TOI. Why is the war still continuing if both sides can just settle it by agreeing mutual security guarantees? Are US and Europe preventing Zelensky from signing a peace deal with Russia and, if so, why? The US might want to divide Russia into pieces by destroying its economy so that it can put in puppet governments in different regions and loot Russia's natural resources. The old Soviet Union broke up into 15 independent countries in 1991, Britannica, because then President Mikhail Gorbachev failed to revive its moribund economy and tried to open up the country, leading to an attempted coup and the breakup, Britannica. Yugoslavia broke apart after 78 days of indiscriminate lethal bombing by NATO, BI. In 1867, Tsar Alexander II sold Alaska to the US for $7.2 million, which amounts to 2 cents per acre of land, opindia. Alaska and Siberia are separated by 55 miles of the Bering Strait. If the US succeeds in dismembering Russia it could overturn the 30-year contract between Russia and China to supply cheap gas, Reuters. The egregious assault on Russia maybe a warning to China not to annex Taiwan by force because the US has no stomach for a fight with China after having lost all its wars since World War II, Observer. Use Ukraine to destroy Russia. Even if Ukraine is destroyed by a meaningless war.     

Far from Goldilocks.

"The US Federal Reserve is raising interest rates for the first time since 2018 in an attempt to bring fast-rising prices under control. The US central bank said it was lifting its benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage points and signalled plans for further rate rises in the months ahead," BBC. "Rate increases work to slow inflation by curbing demand for big-ticket items like houses, automobiles or home improvement projects that become more expensive to finance, which can also slow economic growth and potentially increase unemployment," Reuters. The Fed has reduced expectation of GDP growth from 4% to 2.8% in 2022, "expects inflation to remain at 4.3% this year, dropping to 2.7% in 2023 and to 2.3% in 2024, and "the unemployment rate is seen dropping to 3.5% this year and remaining at that level next year". "Essentially, the idea of full employment is that so few workers are available that companies begin raising wages to attract help," wrote Jay L Zagorski. Full employment is when the jobless rate is below the "non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment" or NAIRU. "At the moment the Congressional Budget Office puts NAIRU at 4.6%," which means "the US is at full employment - and that wages should be going up. But, until recently, they haven't gained much, which has puzzled many economists." Full employment with a growing economy and falling inflation means the US is as close to a "Goldilocks economy", ET, as it can get. India is just the opposite. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) the unemployment rate in India was 7.19% on 16 March 2022, 7.89% in urban areas and 6.87% in rural areas. The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 6.07% in February, according to the National Statistical Office (NSO), ET. The wholesale price index (WPI) jumped to 13.11% in February from 12.96% in January, TIE. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) was slightly higher at 1.3% in January after hitting a 10-month low of 0.7% in December, ET. "The inability of the industrial sector to recover on a sustained basis points to deeper problems such as weakness in demand and/or supply side issues," said Sunil K Sinha. Demand is low because people cannot afford sky-rocketing prices. "Oil price movement in the coming months will dominate the inflation trend, and the recent spike in prices, if sustained, will post downward risks to growth estimates," said the Ministry of Finance. Crude oil prices have been low since 2015 and have gone up only recently, The Balance, while the cost of petrol in India has been rising inexorably, mycarhelpline.com. Because of sky-high taxes, helping the Center to earn an eye-watering Rs 8.02 trillion at our cost, ET. "A chorus is growing among Indian monetary policy officials that the central bank's outlook on inflation and growth is being overtaken by events, including war in Ukraine" ET. All these pundits are bemused when Indian consumers were seeing current inflation at 9.7%, at 10.6% in 3 months and at 10.7% in 1 year, in January, Quartz. The Ukraine war started on 24 February, wikipedia. We are not victims of the war in Ukraine. We are victims of unaffordable prices. And a collaborating RBI.  

Watching and learning.

The war in Ukraine is costing Russia $20 billion per day, "The Russian rouble plummeted from 83 to $1 just before the invasion to 133 by day 17, a decline of nearly 40%," and there is a possibility of recession, even depression, in that country, wrote Narayan Ramachandran. The central bank has increased interest rate from 9.5% to 20% and the possibility of debt default looks increasingly probable. "The US has information suggesting China has expressed some openness to providing Russia with requested military and financial assistance as part of its war on Ukraine, a Western official and a diplomat told CNN." In a meeting in Rome, US officials warned top Chinese official Yang Jiechi of "significant consequences" if Beijing offers support to Russia, HT. China's reputation was already falling before the war, wrote Prof Harsh V Pant. "For all the talk of a declining West, its unprecedented economic crackdown on Russia underscores its economic heft that Washington still wields on the global economy." "Beyond economics a strategic convergence among Western powers will reshape global geopolitics, NATO and the EU have been given a new lease of life and European nations are more determined than ever to strengthen their security structures." For the US, "Rather than a direct war, the list of sanctions imposed on Russia is going to work in favor of the US. More than before, there will be an increasing urge on part of many countries in Europe, namely Ukraine, Finland, Sweden, Moldova, Kosovo etc. to become members of the EU. Without a shot being fired, the US action will ensure geopolitical victory," wrote Profs Nilanjan Banik and Guido Cozzi. Bond yields in the US have fallen as international investments have moved to US Treasuries and exports of US military hardware will increase. So, Russia should surrender to the US? "The Consumer Price Index -- a closely monitored measure of US inflation -- gained 7.9% in the year through February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said," BI. The Producer Price Index, which measures wholesale prices, "moved up 10.0% for the twelve months ended in February", bls. "Almost all commodities have shot up. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index is up 27% this year," wrote Lisa Abramowicz. The breadbasket of poor developing countries are "being bombed" by skyrocketing food, fuel and fertilizer prices, said UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. These include Egypt, Congo, Burkina Faso, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen. Whether such nations blame Russia or US sanctions remains to be seen. Banning Russian banks from the SWIFT system for international money transfer, Reuters, is the financial equivalent of a nuclear attack. The US is the only nation to commit nuclear genocide of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, wikipedia. Today nine countries are recognised nuclear weapon powers, wikipedia, and Iran is racing towards making them. "More importantly, a large group of nations look to sit out the new cold war between a hastily reunited West and Russia," wrote Pankaj Mishra. "The cold warriors who insist on being 'with us or against us' have never really appreciated the transactional and shifting relationships at the heart of non-alignment." Many nations will quietly want to develop an alternative to the SWIFT system so that their economies are not vulnerable to Western imperialist attacks. And many will also seek an alternative to the dollar, maybe something along the likes of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) of the IMF, but managed by Asian or African institutions and beyond control of white supremacists. This could be the beginning of the end of colonialism. Every government is watching. And learning.    

Basket doesn't matter.

"The retail inflation rate in India -- measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) -- came in at 6.07% in February 2022, as per data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Friday," ET. "Urban inflation in February moderated to 5.75%, down from 5.91% in January while rural inflation came in 6.38%, as against 6.12% seen in January." But, the items in the CPI basket no longer represent the consumption pattern of Indians, wrote Sachchidanand Shukla. According to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) 2015, food and beverages comprise 45.86% of the CPI basket. Actually, the share of food has dropped by about 10.8% to 48.6% in rural and by 9.6% to 38.5% in urban areas. Hence, the present CPI basket tends to overestimate the rate of inflation and leads to tighter monetary policy which hurts growth, argued Shukla. The CPI basket also includes VCR/VCD/DVD players, camera and photographic equipment, radio, tape recorder, tape recorder, audio/video cassettes, etc,. which are no longer sold. This kind of analysis conveniently ignores the fact the India is one of the most unequal societies as, "The top 10% had a share of 64.64% in total household wealth, the highest since 1995," while "the bottom 50% decreased to its lowest levels since 1995 to 5.9%", HT. While the number of billionaires grew from 102 to 142 during the pandemic, "More than 4.6 crore (460 million) Indians meanwhile are estimated to have fallen into extreme poverty in 2020, which is nearly half of the global new poor, according to the United Nations (UN)," said Oxfam India. Naturally, consumption patterns vary widely with the rich not only consuming more in terms of quantity but also in quality, while the very poor are barely surviving on the cheapest non-nutritious food, Mint. The wholesale price inflation (WPI) jumped to 13.11% in February from 12.96% in January, which is 11 consecutive months of double-digit rise since April 2011, TIE. At some point, rise in input costs will have to be passed on to consumers, further aggravating retail prices. The Reserve Bank (RBI) has stubbornly kept interest rate at 4% since March 2020 in its delusion that this will somehow stimulate growth. Although down from its peak of $139 per barrel, Brent crude is trading at $101.3 per barrel today, oilprice. Because of inflation, the rupee has fallen to 76.39 to one dollar, xe. The State Bank of India (SBI) predicts the rupee falling to 77.5 to the dollar by June and inflation rising to 5% if oil is above $100 a barrel, ET. Will it? For some reason, economic projections by the government are based on oil at $70-75 per barrel, ET, which is what the RBI must be using. RBI Deputy Governor Michael Patra hinted that the RBI is likely to continue with negative real interest rate because growth may be affected by high cost of imports, ET. People, meanwhile, are being hammered by low returns on savings in banks, soaring prices of essential goods and possibly massive losses on investments in the stock market with prices of start-ups crashing by 68%, ET. High inflation means weaker rupee. Forget basket.

Longest list of duties.

"The Supreme Court on February 21 issued notices to the Centre and states in a writ petition seeking the enforcement of the fundamental duties of citizens as enshrined in the Constitution of India," TIE. "The fundamental duties were incorporated in Part IV-A of the Constitution by the Constitution (42nd Amendment) Act, 1976, during Indira Gandhi's Emergency." In stringent criticism of the Emergency, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in 2018, "Emergency is a black spot on the golden history of the nation. Observing black day today is not just to criticise the Congress for its sin of imposing Emergency but also to create awareness of the protection of Constitution and democracy." With an absolute majority in parliament surely he should remove the "black spot" and "sin" which was never intended by the founders of our Constitution. Instead, "Soon after his spectacular victory in 2019 Lok Sabha election, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in Parliament that there was a need for a 'paradigm shift' in India -- from the centrality of fundamental rights to the fundamental duties," The Print. A ringing endorsement of the Emergency. Again in January this year he was unhappy that citizens are "talking about rights, fighting for rights and wasting time", The Wire. The problem for us is that "At 145,000 words, it is the longest written constitution of any sovereign state in the world. The US constitution, by contrast, has only 4,400 words," weforum. "The US constitution is very difficult to change and, thanks to a religious American sensibility that treats it as a sacred document, it has simply not evolved, impervious to the changing needs of a growing and progressing nation and world. The constitution of India suffers from the converse flaw; in less than 75 years, it has been amended, at last count, 103 times," Quartz. All these laws apply only to citizens, the prime minister is exempt. For instance, in 2016, "the Supreme Court said all cinema halls across the country must play the national anthem and that those present 'must stand up in respect' to 'instill a feeling within one a sense of committed patriotism and nationalism'," TIE. However, "When in Moscow in 2015, Modi himself decided to start walking while the national anthem was being played, and had to be restrained by his Russian hosts." Twenty-seven amendments were written into the US constitution of which the 18th, relating to prohibition of alcohol, has been repealed, University of Minnesota. The very fist amendment says, "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, of prohibiting free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances." In India, "In recent years, there are signs of institutional collapse that make it that much easier for an all-powerful government to ensure a veil of secrecy over it decision making," wrote Rajdeep Sardesai. We, the people, have been beaten into submission. We need a list of duties for politicians and civil servants.       

Sanctions and secrets.

"Russia has officially become the most sanctioned country in the world, surpassing Iran, Syria and North Korea, as its invasion of Ukraine nears a third week," abc. "The country has been subjected to over 5,000 crippling sanctions," more than "Iran, Venezuela, Myanmar and Cuba combined." Switzerland has imposed 568 sanctions, EU 518, Canada 454, Australia 413, the US 243 and the UK 35 sanctions, firstpost. But, sanctions create problems. Benchmark Brent crude is trading at $112 a barrel, oilprice, after jumping over $139 per barrel on 6 March, CNBC. "Fertilizer prices continue to surge as supply upheaval from Russia leaves governments struggling to secure vital crop nutrients, adding to concerns that record global food inflation will accelerate," ET. "Parts of Africa could be plunged into hunger in as fast as three months if Russia's invasion of Ukraine lingers, says Wandile Sihlobo," CNN. White Western countries care nothing for deaths of people with melanin in their skin. After all, up to 1 million Iraqis may have been killed in the illegal US and NATO attack on Iraq, wikipedia, based on blatant lies about the presence of WMDs in Iraq and about Saddam Hussein's ties to Al Qaeda, Vox. "There are two levels of racism here -- the innate racism of Western Europe and North America towards Eastern Europe and the far more blatant racism against the 'brown skinned'," wrote Abhijit Iyer-Mitra. However, now, "Europe's reliance on energy from Russia has jacked up the odds that the region could enter a recession this year as soaring inflation pushes people to cut back spending," CNN. "Goldman's economists, led by Jan Hatzius, said the chance of a recession in the United States over the next year has risen as high as 35%." If that happens, bye, bye Democrats in November. There could be more. The US maybe trying to hide some dark, dirty secret. In October 2021, "The National Institutes of Health has stunningly admitted to funding gain-of-function research on bat coronaviruses at China's Wuhan lab, nypost. The resultant pandemic has killed over 6 million in the world so far, worldometers. Just recently US Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland admitted in the Congress that the US has biological research facilities in Ukraine, presstv. China claims, "The US has 336 labs in 30 countries under its control, including 26 in Ukraine alone," opindia. Even after Nuland's testimony, AP is adamant that Russian and Chinese claims are "inflammatory and unsubstantiated". "Once again, not for the first time, what had seemed like a nutty conspiracy theory turned out to be true," said Tucker Carlson. "What are these labs doing with our money and in our name? And why didn't the Biden administration secure the contents of these labs before the Russian invaded?" Fox. The vicious sanctions on Russia maybe to prevent it discovering more deadly US secrets. How long will the rest of the world close its eyes?