Thursday, January 13, 2022

We need jobs, not decimal points.

"India's GDP will likely grow 9.2 percent in FY22 (2021-22), according to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation," moneycontrol. "While the estimated GDP growth rate of 9.2 percent for FY22 is the highest in at least 17 years, it has been aided by an extremely favorable base effect, with the GDP having contracted by a record 7.3 percent in FY21 on account of the Covid-19 pandemic." "India's GDP growth rate for the year 2021-22 will be 9.5 percent, according to Arvind Virmani, former Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) of India," india,com. "India's economic growth is expected to be 8.3 percent in the current financial year and 8.7 percent in 2022-23, according to the World Bank," NDTV. Wonderful to know India is booming, but how does this argument about percentage points affect the quality of life of 'We the People'? "India's unemployment rate hit a four-month high in December, data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy CMIE showed," ET. The Unemployment rate rose to 7.9% in December from 7.0% in November, its highest since 8.3% in August," ET. Urban unemployment rose to 9.3% from 8.2% and rural unemploy-ment went up to 7.3% from 6.4%. "Rural areas, which support nearly 60 percent of the population by some estimates, saw an increase in the average unemployment rate to 7.3 percent in 2021 from 6.8% percent in 2019, the inaugural Rural Business Confidence Index showed," ET. As a result, delinquency rates on rural loans deteriorated with "the microfinance books showing the maximum stress despite a reduction in loans outstanding". "In fact, according to the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO), in 2019, when India had the highest unemployment rate in the last 45 years, this rate was particularly high among India's youth; 34 percent for those between 20 and 24 years. For urban dwellers in this age group this rate was 37.5 percent," wrote Profs Trishali Chauhan and Christophe Jaffrelot. Private investment has been dropping since 2011. "It has dropped from 34.3 percent then to 27 percent in in 2020." "An overwhelming 93 percent of CEOs, business leaders, and startup entrepreneurs polled in an ET survey said India is on the cusp of an investment boom, helped by strong post-pandemic economic growth, government incentives for manufacturing, emerging business opportunities and low interest rates." 94% promised to increase capital expenditure over the next 3 years starting in 2022. Lacking regular employment, people have been joining the gig economy which "has been responsible for a huge proportion of job creation, which is only projected to increase in the coming years," wrote Prof Amit Kapoor. This provides income during economic hardship. "However, when the labor supply is high and more disposable, as in the case of blue-collar workers, the gig workers have no power to influence payment offerings, and freedom to choose becomes but an illusion. In the interplay of demand and supply mechanisms, the gig workers always lose out." So, "As international borders began opening up around July and August this year, we saw a multitude of Indian students rushing to the consulates of various countries in order to get their study visas approved," wrote Shilpa Menon. They are looking for a way to settle abroad. Few understand GDP and no one cares about few points of growth. What people want are settled income and money in their pockets. As Ruchir Sharma wrote "among advanced economies, higher income does show a clear tie to higher happiness score." Give us jobs. Keep your decimal points.  

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