Saturday, January 22, 2022

Strongmen of submerging markets.

"Examining the tea leaves for 2022, one prediction seems quite straightforward: Emerging markets may need to be renamed submerging markets," wrote Rahul Jacob. "Exhibit A in this investment class to avoid is Turkey whose currency lost almost 40% against the dollar last year, in large part because, prodded by its erratic president, its central bank has been cutting interest rate as inflation soars." "Turkey's annual inflation rate surged to 36.1% last month, its highest in the 19 years that Tayyip Erdogan has ruled, laying bare the depths of a currency crisis engineered by the president's unorthodox interest rate cutting policies," Reuters. Turkey's Monetary Policy Committee of its central bank said "it decided to keep its policy rates 'constant' at 14%, putting on hold rate-cutting policy that has reduced borrowing costs by 5 percentage points since September despite soaring inflation," AP. Erdogan believes that high interest rates cause inflation by raising borrowing costs. On 4 January, the Turkish lira slipped to 13.5 against the dollar, Reuters. When the lira fell to 18.4 against the US dollar Turkey started a foreign currency deposit protection scheme which guarantees against further fall in the value of the lira, DS. So far the scheme has collected 107.6 billion lira. A similar scheme to protect value of gold deposits will hopefully draw in gold items estimated at $280 billion hoarded by citizens. The Indian government has been after gold holdings of citizens since 2015 in exchange of sovereign gold bonds, SBI. The bonds have a duration of 8 years and a lock in period of 5 years which is unhelpful because gold is seen as an insurance against a financial emergency. "Indian households may have accumulated up to 25,000 tonnes of gold, thereby retaining the tag of the world's largest holders of the metal, according to the World Gold Council," BT. "India's gold imports, which has a bearing on the country's current account deficit (CAD), more than doubled to USD 38 billion during April-December this fiscal on account of higher demand," ET. A gold savings account, if it transpires, will be really citizen friendly. "Customers can open such gold accounts in banks and put in money on a regular basis," and can "withdraw the deposit at prevailing prices at any time," ET. It will earn interest at 2.5%. Sri Lanka is in paralysing coils of the Rajapaksa family which controls almost every branch of government, wikipedia. "Sri Lanka consumer prices shot up a record 14 percent in December, surpassing a previous high of 11.1 from a month earlier," and senior ministers warned parliament "of a growing food crisis with rice harvests due in March expected to be drastically lower after an agrochemical ban last year saw farmers abandoning 30 percent of agricultural land," ET. In India wholesale price (WPI) inflation was 13.56% year-on-year in December, slightly lower than 14.2% in November, ET. Analysts are predicting that oil prices could climb to $100 a barrel this year adding to inflationary pressures, DW. Adding to the fun, the US Federal Reserve is to increase its Funds rate 3-4 times this year, CNBC. The stronger the strongman the weaker the economy, it seems. Perhaps, if we could make them weaker.    

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