Wednesday, January 26, 2022

How many will lose their shirts?

"Foreigners are cutting and running in some key Asian emerging markets amid turbulent trading ahead of this week's Federal Reserve meeting, where policymakers are expected to signal an interest-rate liftoff in March," ET. Overseas funds sold a net $3.1 billion worth of shares in Taiwan, South Korea and India this week, following $4.9 billion selloff last week. "In India, where the benchmark stock gauge slumped the most in two months on Monday (24 January), consumer technology names were among the biggest losers." By November, "Foreign institutional investors (FII) have offloaded $7 billion worth of shares in the last two months and since the beginning of the financial year, FIIs have sold nearly $13 billion worth of shares," BI. As of 1 November, FIIs held Rs 54.7 trillion worth in companies listed on the NSE but their share had declined to 21.5% of total value because domestic institutional investors (DII) had increased their share to Rs 33.4 trillion, TOI. "For the last two decades foreign portfolio investors have been the dictators of the Indian market," ET. In 2021, FIIs net sold Indian stocks worth more than Rs 470 billion in the secondary market, but this has made no dent on the market because, "The tsunami of retail investors has resulted in close to Rs 90,000 crore (Rs 900 billion) of net inflows from retail investors in 2021 through September 2021, according to the NSE." Not just the secondary market, "Sixty-three companies raised Rs 1.19 trillion through initial public offerings (IPOs) in calendar year 2021-- a record for any year," BS. This was almost double the previous best of Rs 688.27 billion raised in 2017. Unfortunately, "The selloff in the market in the past few weeks has wiped out over Rs 2 lakh crore (Rs 2 trillion) from recently listed stocks that include leading ones like One97 Communications (Paytm), FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa), Zomato, PB Fintech (PolicyBazaar) and CarTrade," TOI. "Private equity and venture capital firms invested $77 billion in 1,266 deals in 2021, a 62% increase from the $47.5 billion they pumped in 923 deals a year ago, according to a report by Indian Venture and Alternate Capital Association (IVCA) and consultancy firm EY," Mint. "During the same period startups attracted close to $29 billion." "Of the amount raised through IPOs, a substantial part (Rs 75,736 crore or Rs 757.36 billion) was towards Offer for Sale (OFS)" which are a sale of "securities held by the existing shareholders", Mint. "Fintech platform Barat Pe's founder Ashneer Grover criticised rival platform Paytm founder Vijay Shekhar Shama's for mispricing its recent IPO," Outlook. "He stated that the Paytm IPO returned the money to its Chinese investors at the cost of public markets in India." "2021 has seemed eerily similar to 2000," wrote Shankar Sharma. "Between 1995 and its peak in March 2000, the Nasdaq Composite stock market index rose 400%, only to fall 78% from its peak by October 2002, giving up all its gains during the bubble," wikipedia. This was the infamous Dot-com bubble. Statistically, we are set up for a down year in global markets," wrote Sharma. "I do believe that there is an 80% chance that most 'new age' companies will be reverse compounders." In short, millions of Indians are going to lose their shirts. And their pants as well.    

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