Tuesday, January 25, 2022

An island of economic growth.

In the US, for more than a year, "Lower income workers were seeing the biggest pay increases, while gains for better-paid employees lagged behind," wrote Lisa Abramowicz. But, "The five biggest banks boosted compensation by 15% last year, more than twice as much as consumer price inflation, with an expectation of more to come." And, even as fatcats in business services, finance and information tech are receiving huge increases in salaries, consumers are suffering with "America's real disposable income now 3% below its pre-covid level and real wages deeply negative". The US Federal Reserve must address this rising inequality by controlling inflation, says Abramowicz. " "Note that the German economy has entered a recession," wrote Prof V Anantha Nageswaran. "The US too is not in a position to allow interest rates to go up by much, not only because debt levels are high but also because its economy may be facing a situation of stagflation." The Chinese economy relies on the real estate sector for growth which is in trouble. Its biggest property developer, "Evergrande is still trying to appease growing anger among its offshore creditors who have threatened to take legal action over the embattled Chinese developer's plans to restructure the business," CNN. The company asked for more time, saying legal action could result in a "destructive outcome". While other countries are increasing interest rates, "China has unexpectedly cut a key interest rate for the first time in almost two years as official figures showed its economic growth had slowed," BBC. Because, "The country's property sector is attracting less investment as some of its biggest developers face a debt crisis," and "Consumers also seem to be feeling less optimistic". "As far as India's economy is concerned, it appears that an average real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate around 9.0% can be assumed for the financial years 2021-22 and 2022-23." "The Indian economy has recovered 'handsomely' from the pandemic- induced disruptions, former Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Arvind Panagariya said.., while expressing hope that the recovery will be sustained and the growth rate of 7 to 8 percent will be restored," ET. He would like a wind down of the fiscal deficit. "India's overall macroeconomic situation is in recovery mode but the growth is concentrated at the top end," said Prof Kaushik Basu. The country maybe facing stagflation and youth unemployment touched 23%. The Indian economy is doing well but, "My greater worry about the economy is the scarring to the middle class, the small and medium sector, and our children's minds, all of which will come into play after an initial rebound due to pent up demand," said Prof Raghuram Rajan. India's "economic growth is producing fewer jobs than it used to", so "disheartened jobseekers instead take to menial roles or look to move overseas", ET. India, an island of growth in a stagnating world? Or maybe not.

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