Monday, January 03, 2022
Which way will we go?
"Nearly two years after the coronavirus pandemic brought much of the US economy to a halt, public companies are recording some of their best ever financial results," Fox. "Profit growth is strong. Most companies' sales are higher than they were before Covid-19 -- often well above." "Government programs provided funding for businesses, helping them keep workers, while enhanced unemployment benefits and direct aid to customers also kept income up, said Kathy Bostjancic." In India, "Consumer confidence continued to improve from the historic low recorded in July 2021 though the assessment for the current period remained in pessimistic terrain; the current situation index (CSI) increased to 62.3 in November 2021 from 57.7 in the previous survey round," reported the Reserve Bank (RBI). In RBI-speak it means that consumer confidence is still negative. The reason is rising prices, or inflation. "From daily essentials like tomatoes, milk as well as edible oil to transport fuels, rising prices have hampered the financial health of ordinary middle class families in India," BS. "India's big manufacturing and consumer goods companies are considering another price increase in the next few months, having already made two-three hikes earlier this year," and "Fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies said they may raise prices 4-10% over the next three months," ET. To make matters worse, India's labor participation rate (LPR), which measures the portion of working age population "who are employed or actively seeking employment", Investopedia, has fallen to 40.15% in November. "This means 60% of employable people have fallen off the job market," The Wire. "Other competing Asian economies like Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam etc. have over 60% employable people looking for jobs. In India roughly about one billion people are employable but only 400 million or 40% are actually looking for jobs." "Japan's industrial production jumped by a record in November," "South Korea's factory production jumped the most since mid-2020 last month," "China's manufacturing sector continued to expand in December," "Europe never paid so much for electricity as in 2021," "With global inflation soaring, central banks across emerging markets raised borrowing costs in 2021, with Brazil and Russia the major economies with the biggest interest rate increases," and yet, "Brazil's unemployment rate fell more than expected in October," Bloomberg. In December, Brazil's central bank raised interest rate by whopping 150 basis points (1.5%), Reuters. "Policymakers have hiked the rate seven times this year, from 2.0% in January." The annual inflation rate has been increasing since January from 4.56% to 10.74% in November, TE. Whereas in Turkey, the "annual inflation rate surged to 36.1% last month," and "Turkey's lira shed 44% of its value last year," Reuters, because of President Tayyip Erdogan's medieval policy of forcing the central bank to slash interest rate. Though Morgan Stanley predicts a 4.7% growth rate for the global economy, some countries will suffer the consequences. Turkey will certainly be one to suffer. Which other countries will join it?
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