It is probably way behind already.

"Equity mutual funds received a record inflow of Rs 24,989.57 crore (Rs 249.8957 billion) in December, more than double the Rs 10,686.77 crore in the previous month," and "The contribution of monthly systematic investment plans (SIPs) into mutual funds also hit a record Rs 11,305.34 crore in November, according to data released by Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi)," LM. "All fund categories saw inflows during the year led by multicap funds that saw a net inflow of Rs 10,516.32 crore (Rs 105.1632 billion)," ET. "Thanks to continuous inflows, domestic institutional investors, which mostly comprise mutual fund managers, bought stocks worth Rs 31,321 crore in December. This contrasts with withdrawal of Rs 19,026 crore from foreign portfolio investors." That is because the Reserve Bank (RBI) has kept interest rate stuck at 4% since March 2020 despite projecting retail inflation at 5.3% for the financial year 2021-22, ET. In order to suppress the cost of borrowing the RBI adopted various market operations to increase liquidity. "The surplus has just been increasing as RBI kept buying paper from banks to provide liquidity. But deployment avenues were limited for a variety of reasons," wrote Madan Sabnavis. Banks had to park excess funds "in the reverse repo or V3R window for returns of just 3.35-3.75%. These operations led to a negative carry for banks." As a result, banks slashed interest paid on fixed deposits of their retail customers who started investing in riskier assets to increase income. "While fixed deposits gave negative returns after adjusting for inflation and gold was a losing investment (all returns as of 17 December), stock prices surged and cryptos went through the roof," wrote Vivek Kaul. "An army of amateur investors - led by savvier 20- and 30- somethings - bought and sold shares frantically during the year as the bull run gave them an opportunity to make money in stocks at a faster pace than in traditional asset classes," ET. "What needs to be pointed out here is that the Sensex touched an all time high in October. Clearly, the more the stock market goes up, the more the retail investors it attracts. These investors who entered the stock market at its peak would now be sitting on losses," Kaul. The Sensex has jumped by 478 points to 61,094.97 today, BSE. Consumer inflation in the US rose by 6.81% in November, ycharts. "Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates four times this year and begin the process of reducing its balance sheet size as soon as July, joining other banks in forecasting an aggressive tightening of US monetary policy," Reuters. "The benchmark 10-year bond yield....rose by five basis points and hit a fresh two-year high of 6.59 percent as it tracked an uptick in US Treasury yields and global crude oil prices," TIE. The market is predicting high inflation in India. "RBI's stated position that its 'monetary policy stance is primarily attuned to the evolving domestic inflation and growth dynamics' is getting tested now. If its policies continue to be conditioned by the Indian economy's needs, and not by global developments, RBI may end up chasing, rather than guiding the market," It's probably already too late. See the stock market.