It will be good if it remains the same.

From below $30 a barrel in 2015, benchmark Brent crude oil prices have risen to over $80, with a drop to $15 per barrel in 2020, eia,gov. "Oil prices fell about 2% on Monday (yesterday), hit by investor concerns over the possibility of quicker than expected interest-rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve that took down risk markets such as equities while the dollar rallied," Reuters. That one sentence encapsulates all the problems India could face this year. "Brent crude fell $1.62, or 1.8%, to $86.27 a barrel." West Texas Intermediate was trading at $84.15 yesterday and futures point to a slight softening in November 2022 to $77.20 per barrel, marketwatch. "India imports 85% of its domestic oil requirements," wrote Rituraj Barua & Subhash Narayan. "Already India's oil import bill has more than doubled to $71.1 billion between April and November 2021. A $10 per barrel increase in crude raises India's inflation rate by around 50 basis points and widens the fiscal deficit by about 40 basis points." Current account deficit (CAD) will also rise. Petrol prices in India skyrocketed from Rs 67.51 per liter in Delhi in 2016 to Rs 99.86 in 2021 and have come down slightly to Rs 95.41 since December, mycar. Taxes make up 50% of the price of petrol and 40% of the price of diesel paid by consumers at the pump, The Hindu. "Price of domestic cooking gas doubled to Rs 819 per cylinder in the last seven years," said Oil Minister Dharmender Pradhan in March 2021, BS. Today one cylinder of cooking gas costs Rs 899.50 in Delhi, goodreturns. Higher fuel costs raise the cost of goods by increasing the cost of transport. In the US, "In December, the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers rose 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 7.0 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted," bis.gov. The US Fed is expected to raise interest rate four times this year. "Traders are pricing in nearly 95% chance of a rate increase at the March meeting, and a more than 85% chance of four moves in all of 2022, according to CME data," CNBC. As interest rates go up in the US the dollar is expected to strengthen against other currencies. According to Fitch Solutions, the Indian rupee will weaken to Rs 76 to the dollar in 2022 and to 78 to the dollar in 2023, ET. The International Monetary Fund predicts a steeper fall. "From 70.9 in 2020-21, the Fund sees the rupee depreciating to 89.4 against the US dollar by 2026-27. In April the implied exchange rate for 2026-27 was 85.8," wrote Prof V Anantha Nageswaran. A fall in the exchange rate of the rupee will raise the cost of imports, including that of oil, and raise prices further. Indian companies raised $6 billion selling offshore bonds during January 1-14," which was "more than a quarter of the $22 billion raised in the whole of 2021, which itself was a record," ET. If the rupee falls the cost of servicing these debts will also rise. What happens this week could presage what happens for the rest of the year. Unless there is conflict. It could get worse.