Sunday, July 18, 2021

Others may suffer but our economy is inoculated.

"At 12.06 am local time Monday, after Italy's goalie blocked a penalty kick to defeat England and become soccer champions of Europe, Carlo Cottarelli, a prominent Italian economist sometimes mentioned as a potential prime minister, celebrated with a single word," Economic Times (ET). "'Brexit!!!!!!' he wrote on Twitter." "Before the final began, President Ursula von der Leyen of the European Commission looked absolutely delighted to don the Italian colors with her name on her jersey above the number 27, which is the number of countries in the bloc. If England had stayed, she would have worn 28." People in Scotland also celebrated Italy's victory over England as "Hundreds were filmed partying and having a good time in George Square, with lots of Italy shirts on display," The Scottish Sun. "The euro zone economy will grow faster than previously thought both this year and next, the European Commission said on Wednesday, despite emerging concerns the fast-spreading Delta variant of the coronavirus could lead to new restrictions," Reuters. "The EU Commission predicted the euro zone will grow by 4.8% this year, much faster than the 4.3% expansion it had forecast in May." The United Kingdom will grow strongly at 7.2% in 2021 and 5.5% in 2022 and "GDP is expected to return to its pre-pandemic level in early 2022," OECD. "However increased border costs following the exit from EU Single Market will continue to weigh on foreign trade." In the US, "The consumer price index increased 5.4% from a year earlier" and "the core CPI rose 4.5%, the sharpest move for the measure since September 1991". However, in his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said, "We really do believe that these things will come down of their own accord," AP. "Advanced economies, especially the US, have acted forcefully to reignite their economies and support vulnerable businesses and households," Business Standard (BS). "Our calculations, based on World Bank data, show that at nearly $17,000 per capita, US spending has been some 8,000 times higher than that of the least-developed countries." Supplies may not resume as quickly as Powell is predicting. "The spot rate for a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles increased to a record $9,733, up 1% from the previous week and 236% higher than a year ago, according to the Drewry World Container Index. The Shanghai-to-Rotterdam rate rose to $12,954. The composite index, reflecting eight major routes, hit $8,883 , a 339% surge from a year ago," ET. "China is in the middle of a huge power crunch as extreme weather, surging demand for energy and strict limits on coal usage deliver a triple blow to the nation's electricity grid. It's a problem that could last for months, straining the country's economic recovery and weighing on global trade," CNN. "Surging house prices across much of the globe are emerging as a key test for central banks' ability to reign in their crisis support," BS. "Withdrawing stimulus too slowly risks inflating real estate further and worsening financial stability concerns in the longer term." Indian businesses have been attacked in South Africa after arrest of former President Jacob Zuma, India Today. "What is happening in South Africa is different from what's been happening in Haiti, whose president was assassinated last week; or in Cuba, where thousands took to the streets to protest over rising poverty and state indifference; or in Colombia, Brazil, Lebanon and other protests and unrest that have flared up in recent months. Yet there is an obvious common thread that suggests systemic failure -- a pandemic that refuses to abate is ripping societies apart," ET.  Fortunately, India will experience "7%-plus growth consistently" through this decade, said Chief Economic Adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian, Times of India (TOI). We may not have vaccines but our economy is inoculated. Only we can do it.      

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