Saturday, July 24, 2021

Can't stand the suspense. Get it over with.

"Traders are betting India's record-breaking stock rally still has legs, fueled by expectations of continued dovish monetary policy even as inflation fears deepen,"wrote Ashutosh Joshi and Nupur Acharya. "The nation's NSE Nifty 50 Index has more than doubled from a March 2020 low -- one of the best performers in the world over the period" and "also among Asia's top gainers this month". Retail inflation was over 6% in June, The Indian Express (TIE), but the Reserve Bank (RBI) insists that it is temporary and has held interest rate at 4%, moneycontrol. South Korea signaled policy normalization this month and Brazil and Russia have started raising rates, "Still, investors are optimistic the RBI will continue to keep its policy accommodative, a move that will support stocks. "Online food delivery company "Zomato's initial public offer (IPO) was oversubscribed 10.7 times" and "Retail investors sought 6.09 times the portion reserved for them," Times of India (TOI). Real interest rate being negative means ordinary people are losing out on their fixed deposits in banks. Asset prices are being deliberately raised by venture capital (VC) and private equity (PE) investors, "As global liquidity continues with near negative interest rates, this can potentially be construed as an ingenious play to generate mega returns by inflating asset prices through 'investor subsidised business models'," wrote Prabal Basu Roy. "In privately held companies, creating the illusion of ephemeral valuations with co-investments by different funds in subsequent rounds of fund raising is fairly simple. It is ultimately the same small group of funds such as Softbank, Tiger Global and Suquioa who lead a cosy club of friendly competitors for both large scale capital and mega deal flows." "Once publicly listed, these companies will lose convenient access to capital to build profitable, fully loaded unit economics as future tranches will result in dilution of capital." VC and PE funds will exit with enormous gains but retail investors could lose big time if the company is unable to make profits in future. "The market value of Uber's stake in the newly-listed company Zomato has surged to a whopping Rs 9,000 crore ($1.2 billion) without investing a single penny in the food aggregator business," Business Insider. "Uber has never made any investment in Zomato. Its 9.19% shareholding was a result of Zomato's $350 million acquisition of UberEats India business back in 2020." "Increasingly exuberant retail participation in stocks with weak and questionable corporate governance, plethora of whispers fueling a surge of trading volumes in stocks with limited free floats pumped up through hype by interested quarters, which may be dumped on unsuspecting retail investors, are all hallmarks of excesses," wrote Ajay Badke. India's GDP growth is too low and its inflation too high so Prime Minister Narendra Modi's target of a $5 trillion economy by 2025, roughly $3 trillion after adjusting for inflation is impossible now, BBC. Dr Taimur Baig of DBS Bank agreed. "He said if the country were to achieve the $5 trillion target by 2030 it would require dollar GDP to grow by around 7%, the rupee to be stable, a nominal expansion of around 7%, real growth around 4% and inflation at around 3%," Economic Times (ET). Increasing poverty with rising prices has led to an exponential increase in crime. "Snatching is one of the most commonly reported street crimes in Delhi, with 3,829 cases registered till June 15 this year. Last year, 2,612 cases were registered during the same period," Hindustan Times (HT). Women are easy targets with the result that "cases of crimes against women -- rape, sexual harassment, kidnapping, and dowry deaths -- rose in 2021", HT. "Delhi tops the list when it comes to cases of vehicle theft reported in all of India's 28 states and eight Union territories (UTs)." HT. The RBI cannot increase interest rate to control inflation for fear of collapsing the entire house of cards. It is caught like a deer in headlights, waiting for the axe to fall. The longer it takes, the worse it will be. Get it over with.         

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