Tuesday, July 13, 2021

Surely the RBI has a duty to be patriotic?

"The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday said retail investors can open an account with the central bank in few easy steps online to start trading in government bonds," Business Standard (BS). And "retail investors can also bid for bonds in primary auctions just as large institutions do". Why? Is the RBI trying to increase wealth of citizens of India? The answer is an emphatic "No". In its last meeting in June, the RBI kept the interest rate fixed at 4% and also affirmed its intention of continuing its accommodative stance for as long as necessary, Business Today. This when retail inflation came in at 6.26% in June, a shade lower than 6.3% in May, BS. The RBI is therefore inflicting severe financial repression on the people. "Financial repression is a term that describes measures by which governments channel funds from the private sector to themselves as a form of debt reduction," Investopedia. In other words, the RBI is helping to transfer funds from ordinary savers to the government. "Throughout history, the Union government has deployed three levers to control RBI The first is the colonial-era RBI Act, which provides sweeping powers to the government of India (GOI)," wrote Bhattacharya, Bhatia and Devulapalli. "The second lever of control lies in the choice of governors and deputy governors to run RBI." The present governor of the RBI Shaktikanta Das is a retired IAS officer of the GOI, wikipedia. "The third lever of government control lies in the composition and staffing of RBI's central board." The Board of the RBI is loaded with government officers, rbi.org.in, and "S Gurumurthy and Satish Marathe were associated with affiliates of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for long years". The government borrowed Rs 12.8 trillion in 2020-21 and is set to borrow Rs 12.05 trillion this year, Economic Times (ET). The RBI has been engaged in all sorts of financial contortions to keep borrowing costs lower which will lower the interest burden for the government. The RBI has been buying long term debt and selling short term ones through Open Market Operations (OMO), known as 'Operation Twist', Hindustan Times (HT). By reducing the quantity of long term bonds the RBI drives up prices which reduces yields. Since coupon rates on bonds are fixed, if the price of bonds go up then effective yields fall lower, The Balance. The RBI purchased Rs 1 trillion of government bonds under the Government Securities Acquisition Programme (G-SAP) in its determination to keep yields below 6%, The Indian Express (TIE). This is quantitative easing in other words. Naturally, bond traders are not happy with yields below the level of inflation so the RBI has been cancelling bond auctions rather than pay a higher yield, ET. Last week, the RBI was forced to sell Rs 140 billion worth of 10-year bonds at 6.10%, which is still lower than yields in the secondary market, HT. This is why the RBI has decided to sell directly to retail investors, most of whom will not understand the machinations of the RBI and may think that their money is safe. If large numbers of people bid for bonds the price will jump and effective yields will plummet. Secondly, the government will claw a large chunk away through income tax and cess, iciciprulife. So returns will be a pathetic 4% or less. Prices of bonds are volatile, although less than those of stocks, so the investor could suffer capital loss if forced to sell when prices are down, dummies.com. There is no capital loss in fixed deposits in banks. Since 2000, average annual inflation in the US has been much less than 3%, The Balance. Whereas, it has averaged around 7% in India, inflation.eu. Since the buying power of the rupee is weakening constantly compared to the dollar the exchange rate of the rupee has fallen since Independence, compareremit. Therefore, the price that retail investors pay today will be worth much less in 10 years. The RBI is conspiring to defraud the people. Surely it should be patriotic? 

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