Wednesday, July 28, 2021

If China is not complaining, why are we?

"In brief, the WTO claims to ensure free trade among its members by ensuring that no one subsidizes its exporters or restricts imports using tariffs/quotas or any other discriminatory policy," wrote Nikhil Gupta. In October 2019, when the WTO recommended that India withdraw 'prohibited subsidies' under the Merchandise Exports from India Scheme within 120 days, India replaced that scheme with the one for remission of duties and taxes on export products." Cutting taxes is also a subsidy given by the government as an incentive to the country's businesses, Investopedia. After all, "That which we call a rose" etc, wikipedia. In 2018, tariffs were raised on imports of 19 categories of "non-essential items" to reduce our current account deficit, The Indian Express (TIE). Former President Donald Trump complained about high tariffs levied by India on US goods, BBC. "India's applied (real) tariff has increased to an average of 17.6% in 2019 from 13.5% in 2014, according to the latest data compiled by the WTO. Trade weighted average tariff, too, rose from 7% to 10.3% between 2014 and 2018, the latest year for which the data are compiled," Financial Express (FE). Forgetting the old adage about people living in glass houses, Gupta complains, "Notably, though, the huge overuse of monetary/fiscal easing has never been considered a contentious issue in global economics. Notwithstanding the large negative externalities of over-stimulus by the US for the rest of the world, there is no discussion on how to bring it under the umbrella of global cooperation." The US economy "likely grew at an 8.5% annualized rate last quarter, according to Reuters survey of economists." "The economy grew at a 6.4% rate in the first quarter, but that is subject to revision." Goldman Sachs slashed growth rate of the US economy to 5% in the last three months of the year. For the full year, Goldman predicts 6.6% GDP growth," CNN. "From 2022, the pace of expansion will slow further, trending back toward the 1.5% to 2% annualized growth what the nation typically saw before the pandemic." On the other hand, "Chief Economic Adviser KV Subramanian on Wednesday said India is expected to hit growth rate of 6.5-7 percent in 2022-23 and accelerate further to 8 percent in the subsequent years on the back of reforms undertaken by the government. He also said the government is expected to meet the fiscal deficit target of 6.8 percent in the current fiscal despite pressure on revenue collections," Economic Times (ET). So, India's prospects are rosy all the way. China is not complaining about increased US stimulus. According to US Census Bureau figures, China's exports to the US were $130.704 billion more than what it imported from the US in the first 5 months of this year. Overall, "Exports in dollar terms rose 32.2% in June from a year earlier, compared with 27.9% growth in May," CNBC. India's exports also jumped. "Exports during the April-June quarter this year jumped to USD 95.36 billion as against USD 51.44 billion in the same period last year," FE. "Imports during April-June 2021 were at USD 126.14 billion, an increase from USD 60.65 billion in the corresponding three months last year." "Led by petroleum, gems & jewellery, engineering goods exports in the first three weeks of July rose 45.13% year-on-year to $22.48 billion. Imports in the first three weeks of July posted a sharper increase of 64.82% to $31.77 billion, commerce and industry ministry said in a statement," ET. It's not the fault of the US that we always run a trade deficit. Excessive influx of dollars is a problem for emerging and developing economies (E&DEs) because central banks of these nations have to buy dollars to prevent their currencies from hardening and the increased liquidity causes bond prices to go up, said Gupta. Not content with keeping real interest rate in negative territory, moneycontrol, the Reserve Bank (RBI) is resorting to quantitative easing, deceptively called G-SAP, TIE, to weaponise liquidity in India. But whereas, the US government has been issuing stimulus cheques to its citizens, USA Gov, the Indian government has been squeezing money out of its citizens through extortionate taxes on fuel, india today. If our economy is growing faster than that of the US, why complain? Does Gupta not have faith in our lot? 

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