The warnings are there. It's up to us now.

The Global Economic Prospects (GEP) report by the World Bank sees advanced economies recovering to pre-pandemic levels this year while recovery in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) will be uneven, wrote Prof Kaushik Basu. "The problem with India is not its economic fundamentals, which are strong, but the poor management of its economy and the pandemic" and there will be 143-163 million newly poor people, half of whom will be in South Asia, mainly in India. The World Bank warns against inflation. "Inflation usually declines during recessions. But, of the global recessions of the last half-century,  the drop in inflation during this pandemic-induced downturn has been the most muted." Inflation has risen faster since May this year. Debt ratios were much lower in the recession of the 1970s while central banks were worried about deflation after the debt crisis of 2007-08, wrote Prof Nouriel Roubini. This time, "Debt ratios are much higher than in the 1970s, and a mix of loose economic policies and negative supply shocks threaten to fuel inflation rather than deflation, setting the stage for the mother of all stagflationary debt crises over the next few years." In September 2006, Roubini "laid out a bleak sequence of events: homeowners defaulting on mortgages, trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities unraveling worldwide and the global financial system shuddering to a halt," wrote Stephen Mihm. No one believed him and he was known as 'Dr Doom' and 'permabear'. "In the year that followed, subprime lenders began entering bankruptcy, hedge funds began going under and the stock market plunged. There was declining employment, a deteriorating dollar, ever increasing evidence of a huge housing bust and a growing air of panic in financial markets as the credit crisis deepened," The New York Times Magazine. He is predicting a 'U' or 'L' shaped recovery this time. "During the global financial crisis it took about three years until output fell sharply," he told BBC's Talking Asia Programme. "This time around it didn't take three years, not even three months, in three weeks there was a freefall of every component." "Roubini, who's known as 'Dr Doom,' thinks the most obvious trigger will be US Treasury yields rising above 2%. That could panic investors in all asset classes, sparking powerful waves of selling," Forbes. "That's especially so here in Asia, the region with the largest US Treasury debt holdings. It could take on a momentum all its own, driving up rates on corporate, mortgage-backed, asset-backed and municipal debt. a jump in yields could force big revaluations in equity prices too." "The doom loop of sovereigns and banks in the eurozone after the global financial crisis will be repeated worldwide, sucking in households, corporations and shadow banks as well," he wrote. As opposed to the US, Europe and Japan, who have been striving to prevent deflation, India starts with very high inflation. Retail inflation came in at 6.3% in May from 4.23% in April, Economic Times (ET). Food and beverages comprise 45.86% of our consumer price index (CPI) basket, 54.18% in rural and 36.29% in urban areas. "Fuel costs have been ratcheted up to current levels by the combined effects of rising benchmark Brent prices and numerous tax hikes over the past few years," Business Standard. The RBI's Financial Stability Report shows that "at less than 6%, the overall credit growth is quite dismal", which means muted investment, and households expect employment, productivity, and wages to decline, even as they expected prices to rise, pointing towards lower spending and demand. This is because the RBI is doing everything in its power to "keep yields lower as that reduces borrowing costs for the government while preventing any upward movement in lending rates in the market", The Indian Express. The stress on food and beverages in our CPI probably does not reflect true inflation because GST collections have been rising to record levels, UNI, despite anemic demand, reflecting soaring prices of goods and services other than food. After all, man doth not live by bread alone". The World Bank and Dr Doom have warned us.