Wednesday, July 14, 2021

Increased spending on fuel will not create jobs.

"While it is true that the economy has been hit hard by the pandemic, the situation is not unique to the country, " Diva Jain. Our fiscal deficit was high at 9.5% in 2020-21 and is pegged at 6.8% of GDP for the current financial year, Economic Times. But this is because of increased government spending to stimulate the economy. Our debt/GDP ratio is higher than in other emerging economies and higher borrowing will add to it, Business Insider. Retail inflation is higher in India than in other Asian countries and, "In 2022, consumer prices will grow at a rate that is around two-and-a-half times more than the rest of Asia's average," Udit Misra. Fuel prices are very high because of taxes. Labour force participation rate, which is the number of people looking for work, was 43% before Covid, while it was 76% in China and 69% in Indonesia. It has dropped to around 40%, unemployment has climbed and close to 22 million jobs have been extinguished by the pandemic. "Unless India's gross domestic product (GDP) posts a surprisingly robust revival, we risk running into a spell of stagflation -- a painful combination of economic stagnancy and high inflation," wrote an editorial in the Mint. "Support for a wobbly economy should not leave us with a wobbly rupee," so the Centre must reduce taxes on fuel. The government is unlikely to cut taxes on fuel said Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) to the Government of India (GOI) because, "If you look at the last 6-7 years, anywhere between 35-60% of contribution to retail inflation comes from food inflation. Weightage  of petrol and diesel in CPI (Consumer Price Index) is less than 3% while weightage of food is about 50%." CPI is calculated in relation to prices in a base year, which is 2012, so if prices were as high last year as they are this year, CPI will show no inflation, moneycontrol. However, prices of fuel are being increased by small increments relentlessly. "After two days of stagnant prices, the rate of petrol has been increased by 31 to 39 paise. On the other hand, diesel prices have been taken up 15-21 paise so far," News18. Prof Krishnamurthy Subramanian has a PhD in Economics, wikipedia, so he knows that petrol and diesel are like blood that carries oxygen and nutrients in our bodies. Rising fuel costs means higher transport costs, and vegetables, being perishable, are mostly transported by trucks to the nearest markets. India transported 8.225 billion passengers and 980 million tonnes of cargo by road annually, as of 2015, and 8.09 billion passengers and 1.20 billion tonnes of freight by rail annually as of 2020, wikipedia. So Prof Subramanian must be dissimulating when he claims that fuel costs will have no bearing on inflation. "If you look into the data, the significant increase in fuel prices is now crowding out expenses on health and also on other items on people's grocery and utility lists in such a manner that their demand has actually significantly weakened," said economist Dr SK Ghosh. "Earlier they were trying to balance fuel and grocery, but now they are spending mostly on fuel, cutting down expenses on grocery." Because demand for other goods has fallen prices are not rising as fast as they should. "All said and done, inflation is far less a worry right now than growth, which remains subdued," Financial Express. "By provisional estimates for 2020-21, private final consumption expenditure declined by Rs 7.4 trillion compared to 2019-20. Second. in the latest consumer confidence survey published before the RBI monetary policy meeting in June, household expectations on the general economic condition, their incomes, employment prospects and spending intentions on non-essential items had deteriorated markedly from the previous survey," Prof V Anantha Nageswaran. "It is time for the government to draw a line under the reliance on indirect taxes, especially fuel taxes, to shore up its fiscal situation." They maybe building a large reserve in case the economy falls further. Trouble is, it maybe too late.  

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