Difficult to change when you are so old.

"Yanis Varoufakis is a self confessed Marxist-Leninist professor of economics," wrote A Nageswaran. He was right when he took on the Troika of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund over "bailout loans thrust on Greece". The vote for Brexit in Britain, the diminished vote share for Angela Merkel, the victory of two Europhobic parties in Italy, and the rise of right wing leaders in Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland have proved him right again. Varoufakis has written a book, Adults In The Room, in which he lays out his policies "that a so-called capitalist finance minister would have been glad to own up to". "He was willing to reduce the number of value-added tax (VAT) rates and the rates themselves. He said it made no sense to have a top VAT rate of 23%." The Indian government, on the other hand, has imposed multiple rates under the Goods and Services Tax, introduced last year. Then there are surreptitious charges. GST on gold is 3%, but there is a customs duty of 10%, which naturally encourages smuggling of gold into the country. Then there are hidden taxes called cess. While extra taxes on tobacco products maybe justified, it makes no sense imposing sly taxes on coal which is solely used for producing electricity. Imposing huge cess on cars takes them out of reach of ordinary people. Cess on income tax was increased from 3% to 4% in this year's budget. As for petrol the ex-refinery cost of petrol is Rs 27.51 per liter and the pump dealers commission is Rs 2.5 per liter, making a total of Rs 30, which means the total tax on petrol is in excess of 100%. The government cut excise duty by Rs 2 in the budget but added a cess of Rs 8 per liter of petrol. And yet, fuel prices have not been raised for six days because Karnataka election is on 12 May. Varoufakis was willing to privatize Greek railway, but so greedy are the terms for the sale of Air India that no airlines is willing to bid for it. While railing against Greek oligarchs Varoufakis "was willing to let them come into the system without scaring them away straightaway with raids, fines and extortionist demands". The government is cock-a-hoop about squeezing an extra Rs 1.5 trillion in direct taxes and has increased cases against taxpayers by three-fold in an effort to arm-twist people into paying more. And is proposing to wring an extra Rs 1 trillion from GST in this financial year. GST is an indirect tax which the poor are also forced to pay. This government "failed to reverse the path of de-liberalization or anti-liberalization that had characterized the 10 years of United Progressive Alliance (UPA) regime. Instead, it embraced them and doubled down on some of their bad policies such as the 'right to education policy and, worse, on tax terrorism," wrote a disappointed Nageswaran. After all, India is very ancient.

Knowledge alone is not sufficient.

"A few months ago, Mumbai Mirror reported how several of the biggest real estate developers in the city traced their roots to Bhinmal, a small town in Rajasthan," wrote N Rajadhyaksha. "See, if one person moves to a new place and makes money there, others follow," said one of the locals. "They made the right investments at the right time. Later, they helped people from their native place to set up a business in Mumbai. It was like a chain." Research by economists HK Hvide and P Oyer in Finland discovered that "entrepreneurs who went into industries where there was family experience were more likely to succeed because of the specific industry knowledge they were exposed to at home during childhood -- or at the dinner table". This advantage held even for people whose fathers had died earlier, meaning that it was knowledge, and not inherited networking, that provided the edge. A survey in the UK found that children of middle class families do better in life than children of disadvantaged families because they "hoard the best opportunities", by financing unpaid internships and using their networks. Parents are supposed to give the best possible upbringing to their children otherwise they will be failing in their duty, objected Q Letts. No government can, or should, stop parents providing knowledge to their children, it is the government's moral duty to provide equal education opportunities to every child so that all children can compete fairly. Advances in technology will disrupt economies in unknown ways, so quality education is a must, wrote E Ghani of the World Bank. Because spending power of individuals is weak in India businesses have a unique challenge here, even though a 1.3 billion population with rising incomes looks extremely inviting at the macro level, wrote, T Mukherjee. In 2016-17, Vodafone had a total global subscriber base of 341.7 million, of which 209 million, about 61%, were in India. Yet, it earned 6.16 billion euros here out of a total revenue of 47.6 billion euros, just 12.9%. Advantages of belonging to a community is best exemplified in South Africa where the collapse of the Apartheid system has resulted in poverty among a section of whites who had been protected in the past. "India is a great example of an economy where community networks dominate specific activities -- from trade to skills." Which means that Dalits, "A community that has been denied opportunity will find it very difficult to plug into existing business networks, and creating new ones will be an uphill task." Politicians will do their utmost to divide communities to get their votes. Forming new community networks is going to be almost impossible.

Do professors write articles out of self interest?

"Rules are reversing the relationship between monetary and fiscal policies, from monetary accommodation of fiscal deficits (FDs) to independence of central banks with restraints on FDs," wrote Prof A Goyal who is a member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council. This is because of effect of monetary policy on debt, and macroeconomic stability and lower FDs because of inflows of foreign funds. The threat of outflows of these funds increase the independence of the Governor of the RBI. The real reason why central banks have become independent is because of "historical experience of negative effects of fiscal dominance with passive monetary accommodation". An inflation target of 2% was adopted by developed countries in 1990. So, what is Prof Goyal's gripe? Tight monetary policy reduced economic growth. "Since 2011 Indian growth has averaged 2% lower compared to the previous period -- implying an irreversible loss." This was her accusation against the previous Governor of RBI, Raghuram Rajan. Retail inflation is due mainly to food prices and that depends on supply. Monetary policy is useless if supply falls. She recommends an asymmetric inflation band: "+3 and -1 around 4". Which means she thinks that a retail inflation level of 7% is tolerable. The Congress party was wiped out in 2014 because of very high retail inflation. The previous Governor of RBI was reducing interest rate in 2008-09 even while retail inflation was inching up to 8% and was too hesitant in tightening monetary policy, until Rajan came along. The key to reducing inflation seems very easy -- just increase food production. Trouble is, bumper crops result in a crash in food prices leading to severe losses for farmers, as happened last year. BJP majority in the assembly in Gujarat, Modi's home state, was reduced in last year's election because of anger among farmers, wrote Prof H Upadhyaya. With general elections next year Modi is not taking any chances. He has promised to increase Minimum Support Price to 1.5 times the cost of production which puts a floor under food prices. A survey by the government's National Sample Survey Office showed that the poor spend over half their earnings on food so any rise in food prices hits them hard. Monetary policy has very little to do with economic growth, wrote Prof R Chinchwadkar, citing a recent paper. Zero interest rate, and even negative interest rates, have not been effective in raising growth or inflation. Perhaps Modi could learn from Prof Varoufakis, who is a self-declared communist, and put an end to handouts policies of the Congress. He would not have to resort to tax terrorism to balance his books. Prof Goyal should be advising him instead of telling the RBI what to do. We trust the RBI over Parliament any day.

Trade can be free, but can it be balanced?

"US President Donald Trump has declared that America's $500 billion trade deficit with China means that the US is 'down' $500 billion. Apparently, he thinks that trade surplus and deficits amount to profit and loss statements for countries. He could not be more wrong," wrote A Jamal. He gives an example of a developer buying $50 million worth of construction material from China to erect an apartment building. "The $50 million the developer spent in China was exchanged for $50 million worth of goods. That makes it an equal and balanced transaction." "The standard models of trade with which economists work typically yield sharp distributional effects: income losses by certain groups of producers or worker categories are the flip side of the 'gains from trade'. And economist have long known that market failures -- including poorly functional labour markets, knowledge or environmental externalities, and monopolies -- can interfere with the reaping of those gains," wrote Prof D Rodrik. "Nonetheless, economists can be counted on to parrot the wonders of comparative advantage and free trade whenever trade agreements come up." In other words, there are winners and losers. A US government advisory to US companies hoping to export to China said, "Mandatory joint venture structures and equity caps give Chinese partner firms significant control often allowing them to benefit from technology transfer. In addition, the relative opacity of the approval process and the broad discretion granted to authorities foster an environment where the Chinese government can impose deal-specific conditions beyond written legal requirements, often with the intent to force technology transfer as a condition of market access or to support industrial policies and the interests of local competitors." Which means trade is not free and is skewed towards China. Since the US is able to print dollars its trade deficit does not matter, said Jamal. If we take the dollar as a resource for the US, like gold, oil and rare earths are resources of African nations, then wasting dollars in huge trade deficits becomes a resource curse. In 2003, African nations walked out of Cancun conference on free trade, accusing rich nations of negotiating in bad faith. More recently, they blocked talks on rules for digital trade and US demands for free access to internet trade, free flow of data and no customs duty on e-commerce. Just as rich countries exploit the poor, so China exploits richer nations. China is using its wealth from unequal trade to interfere in affairs of other nations. Having been allowed to pervert trade rules blatantly for decades it has become so arrogant that industrialist Jack Ma threatened war if China is not allowed to continue to bend rules. Instead of Trump, perhaps Jamal should address Xi Jinping.

Election next May, calculations started already.

"How the economy performs in the current fiscal year is especially significant, since it will form the backdrop to the general elections next year," wrote M Chakravarty. The International Monetary Fund, or IMF, has just published its World Economic Outlook, or WEO, with predictions for India in 2018. Growth in GDP will increase to 7.4% from 6.7% this year. This will be "lifted by strong private consumption". Which is strange because the RBI's survey showed a decline in consumer confidence since December 2017 and a decline in proposed consumer spending. "Households' current perception on the general economic situation dived sharply from the neutral level polled in the last round. The one year ahead outlook also deteriorated, but remained in the optimistic domain," said the RBI. Investment will increase just a little to 32% from 31.7% in 2016-17 because of a pick up in savings which will remain at 29.7% of GDP, like last year, way below the heights of 33.5% of GDP in 2012-13. Exports in goods and services will rise by 8.2% but imports will rise by only 8.1%. Despite that Current Account Deficit, or CAD, is expected to increase to 2.3% of GDP. This despite the fact that India receives the highest remittances from our diaspora working in other countries. Last year we received a total of $69 billion in remittances. If this were to fall because of the effect of low oil prices on Middle East nations, or the 60,000 Indians with H1B visas in the US whose spouses will no longer be allowed to work then the CAD could be higher. If, on the other hand, the price of oil were to go up it will be good for oil economies but it will hit Indian consumers hard because fuel prices are already at their highest since 2013. In addition, the Federal Reserve in the US may tighten monetary policy at a faster rate which could decrease inflows of foreign funds into India and increase interest payments of companies which have borrowed abroad. The IMF has cautioned on the risks of reduction in foreign fund inflows into emerging markets. Inflation is likely to remain at around 5% creating fears of a rate hike by the RBI. The combined fiscal deficit of center and states will come down from 6.9% of GDP to 6.5% due to higher tax collection, said the WEO. Which is not surprising as the recent Goods and Services Tax, or GST, is one of the most complex and the second highest rate in the world, said the World Bank. Seems that households are right to be pessimistic. Will things improve before elections?

Not theories, it's what we want.

"Why were democratic political systems not responsive early enough to the grievances that autocratic populists have successfully exploited -- inequality and economic anxiety, decline of perceived social status, the chasm between elites and ordinary citizens?" asked Prof D Rodrik. "In principle, greater inequality produces a demand for redistribution. Democratic politicians should respond by imposing higher taxes on the wealthy and spending proceeds on the less well off." "The axioms underpinning traditional economics embody a view of human behaviour known as homo economicus: we choose among available options that which we want or prefer the most," wrote Prof R Hausmann. We humans "are the most cooperative species on earth" and we like to belong to "social categories -- for example, being a Christian, a father, a mason, a neighbour, or a sportsman". "The new revolution in economics may find a place for strategies based on affecting ideals and identities, not just taxes and subsidies." That is the famous 'nudge theory' that won the Nobel Prize for Richard Thaler last year. The best example of nudging people to alter their behavior to help society is the notion of 'opting out' of donating organs for transplant rather than of 'opting in', as at present. In countries, such as Austria, where opting out has become the law, the number of organs available for donation has jumped. But, it is possible that opting out is intentionally made so difficult that people give up trying. Many companies are already using nudge theory to alter behavior so as to increase their profits. These have been labeled 'dark nudges', "such as subprime mortgages with ballooning interest rates or complex mobile phone contracts". "Many companies are nudging purely for their own profit and not in customers' best interests," wrote Thaler in 2015. Nudge theory is "another classic example of great academic research put into practice in a way that was never intended or foreseen especially with the changes in technology that are around now," said J Coughlin. Those who increase taxes on the wealthy and redistribute that money are democratic while those who reduce corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% in an effort to increase production and jobs are "autocratic populists". Professors don't understand why workers and unions voted for Donald Trump last November. Perhaps people are not stupid. They see how the redistribution policies of Hugo Chavez has driven Venezuela to starvation. This year is the anniversary of the October Revolution which started with such promise but degenerated into tyranny. Perhaps it would be best to stop arguing between left and right and ask the people instead. That will be true democracy.

No outrage left for corruption.

Instead of decreasing corruption liberalization helped to increase it, wrote Prof A Dixit and R Mankar. "Growth surged: that raised the value of natural resources and government contracts. So substantial was this increase that despite the reduction in powers, the economic rent at the government's disposal grew strongly." Advances in technology "reduced petty bribery -- for example in passport issuances --" but "bigger forms of corruption in India are flourishing". The authors think that "Business Community Institution", or BCI, which will provide a platform to the millions of ordinary people to voice their disapproval, is the answer. Their optimism is based on a movement against paying protection money, called 'pizzo', to the mafia in Sicily. Only 10% of businesses in Palermo belong to the movement, "Addio pizzo", which means 'goodbye pizzo', but the mafia has not retaliated despite losing a lot of money. Business corruption or white collar crime, like the Nirav Modi scam, seem far away and do not affect most people personally. Crimes of violence do, and daily there are crimes competing to surpass each other in savagery. "Outrage, like everything else, is scarce. It is costly to produce and express, both individually and in groups," wrote Prof S Rajagopalan, writing about the horrible rape and murder of a little girl in Kathua. "Given the everyday small and large problems and injustices that most Indians face, this is no minor barrier. And our political leaders understand this and often get away with murder while decent people are busy navigating their everyday lives." When a BJP politician was accused of rape in Unnao in UP, the father of the victim was beaten to death by the politician's brother. In an angry article, U Pullat wrote that all these terrible crimes prove "the lack of independence and the capture of the police" by politicians and dominant groups in our country. The situation is particularly bad in Bengal where goons belonging to the ruling party murder political opponents with impunity. BJP leaders in Bengal are complaining of being targeted both by Trinamul Party goons as well as the police. In Unnao local people rallied in support of their BJP MLA accused of rape. A poll showed that most Indians will not seek help from either the police or from lawyers but will try to settle disputes by themselves. No wonder women do not bother to report 99% of cases of sexual assault. "India's culture cannot be changed, from corrupt to clean, simply by relying on the government to enact and enforce laws," said Dixit and Mankar. True, but we are helpless when the government actively protects criminals. And that includes the corrupt. 

Debt is fine as long as you are earning enough.

According to the latest report from the International Monetary Fund, the global economy is expanding at its fastest rate since 2011. But there is a growing risk which is not getting adequate attention. "The latest Fiscal Monitor of the IMF, released last week, noted that global debt at the end of 2016 was 225% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is 12 percentage points higher than the previous peak of 2009, when governments were on a deficit spending spree to prevent economic collapse," wrote an editorial in the Mint. The global debt had risen to $164 trillion in 2016. The rise of private sector debt, especially in China is a worry. Japan's debt to GDP ratio last year was at 236%, Italy was at 132% while the US was at 108%. US budget deficit is projected to surpass $1 trillion by 2020. Of emerging markets, Brazil's debt to GDP ratio stood at 84% while India was at 70.2%. Total GDP of the entire world was around $75.4 trillion in 2016. The US Federal Reserve is committed to increasing interest rate at least twice more this year but, if the economy grows faster pushing inflation above 2% it may be forced to tighten monetary policy faster. That would increase the cost of servicing this huge debt that has piled up. Already, "yields on two-year US government bonds have risen to their highest level since the financial crisis". Secondly, the fast growth in the US economy may not last and a slowdown in the global economy "will make debt servicing more difficult". Third, "General government debt in emerging markets and middle income-economies is expected to go up from 37.4% of GDP in 2012 to 52.9% of GDP in 2019". With rising interest costs governments will have less money to spend on infrastructure. And finally, in the event of a recession, governments will not be able to borrow to stimulate their economies when they are already loaded with debt. A study of 24 advanced economies in the post-war period by CD Romer and DH Romer showed that output declined by only 1% in a recession if the government could resort to fiscal and monetary stimulus, but "the output declines by about 10% when it doesn't have the policy space to respond". Central banks are worried that a trade war will lower growth rate while higher tariffs may be inflationary. Facing stagflation central banks may not be able to use a "monetary policy put" to ease the situation. "India may become a surprise victim of trade war," said Rabobank, giving different scenarios which could be very damaging for our economy. When you are weak you become roadkill.

Is their a silver lining somewhere?

"Is the Indian economy really that strong," wondered R Ramaswamy. The rate of investment is at its lowest level in 15 years. It is down to 30% of GDP from 34% in 2014. Growth in industrial production has risen from a low base of 2% in mid 2017 but the growth in bank lending is down sharply. Inflation is down, but that is mainly due to weakness in global commodity prices. The combined central and state fiscal deficit is high at 6.5% of GDP and our government debt is higher than other emerging market economies, at 70% of GDP. So, a 7% growth rate of our economy seems suspect. Not so, said Urjit Patel, Governor of RBI. "There are now clearer signs that the revival  in investment activity will be sustained," he said. "On the whole, real GDP growth is expected to expand at 7.4% in 2018-19, with risks evenly balanced." Capital goods output, which provides an indirect indication of investment activity in the economy, rose by 20% in February. The India Meteorological Department has forecast a normal monsoon for this year which will lead to lower food prices and lower inflation. In, what is known as "Cobweb Phenomenon", bumper crops lead to a fall in prices at wholesale markets, known as 'mandis', and lead to severe losses for farmers. That would be disaster in an election year so Prime Minister Modi has promised farmers a return of 50% over cost by increasing the Minimum Support Price. That will increase market prices of food at at time when fuel prices in India have reached their highest levels since September 2013. But, according to Nomura, Modi's promise of higher prices for farm produce will not be that profitable for farmers, but will be sufficient to increase food prices and inflation. Foreign Institutional Investors have been selling stocks because of worries about our growth prospects but have not withdrawn money from India like in the past, so the rupee has remained stable. Although Governor Patel is predicting low retail inflation, the minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee shows concern for higher inflation and a possibility of a higher interest rate. Bond yields jumped 60 basis points, from 7.13% to 7.73%, thus increasing cost of borrowing for the government. It is more important to reduce poverty than to concentrate on inequality, wrote Prof P Balakrishnan. Reforms in agriculture are needed for a sustained increase in income of farmers and a decrease in rural poverty. Farmers need freedom from laws that restrict their freedom to export their produce, give them direct income support and improve infrastructure to prevent wastage, wrote Prof Gulati and Saini. Then, there is the possibility of a global trade war. A real economic potpourrie.

Whose fault is the fiscal deficit?

As the price of crude oil has risen recently, fuel prices have soared in India. "The Narendra Modi government abolished subsidies and price controls in late 2014, taking advantage of the crash in world prices at the time. As the next election approaches, Modi will be tempted to return to subsidies and price controls to woo middle-class owners of two-wheelers and four-wheelers. He should resist the temptation," wrote SA Aiyer. The price of petrol in Delhi is around Rs 74 at present, highest in 5 years. Of this, more than Rs 40 is due to a total of excise duty by the central government and Value Added Tax by state governments. If, instead of multiple taxes, the Goods and Services Tax is levied on petrol it would cost around Rs 40 per liter at 12% tax rate, Rs 42 at 18% tax rate and Rs 48 at 28% tax rate. On 16 April the price of regular petrol in the US was $2.747 per US gallon. One US gallon is 3.79 liters and taking one dollar as Rs 66, the price of one liter of petrol in the US works out to about Rs 48. There is 18% tax on petrol. At around 800 cars per 1000 people in the US there is huge demand for petrol. Does the government subsidise petrol? Yes, say opponents of fossil fuels who claim that oil companies in the US receive a total of $4.6 billion in subsidies every year. Oil companies pay the highest rates of taxes in the US, wrote R Carlyle, an engineer at an oil company. So what are the subsidies that people are complaining about? What people mean by subsidies is that taxes could be higher than what they are, and government help to poor people to buy heating oil. On average, the oil industry in the US pays around 45% when all taxes are added up, while the Healthcare industry pays 35% and Pharmaceuticals pay about 21%, wrote L Tesoro. "In 2014, prices were highly susbsidised and taxes on petroleum products had been slashed. Chidambaram aimed to gradually eliminate these distortions and then decontrol oil," wrote Aiyar. Really? Despite these so-called subsidies the government earned Rs 822 billion from petroleum products in 2013-14, when crude oil prices were at $110 a barrel. In 2011-12 it earned Rs 563 billion and in 2012-13 it earned 426 billion. "The fiscal deficit last year was 3.5% of GDP, well short of the 3% finance minister Arun Jaitley had originally aimed for. He aims to reduce this to 3.3% this year and 3.1% next year." That is because Modi wasted the money raised from high taxes on oil. "This leaves little fiscal space for giveaways. That space will be fully occupied by Modi's promise to raise farm prices to ensure a 50% margin for farmers over their cost of production, thus increasing food subsidies." So, according to Aiyar, it is alright to buy votes of farmers by taxing us. Aiyer has a Master's degree in Economics. He should give correct figures.

China created wealth, we created Aadhaar.

"India has one of the youngest populations in an aging world. By 2020, the median age in India will be just 28, compared to 37 in China and the US, 45 in Western Europe, and 49 in Japan," wrote E Ghani. But, "While, China's spectacular growth has already benefited from a demographic dividend, India is yet to do so." A young population means more people for the labor force, more spending on education, housing and consumption, and more savings, leading to rapid economic growth. However, "There is mounting concern that future growth could turn out to be jobless due to de-industrialization, de-globalization, and the fourth industrial revolution and technological progress." Digital technologies will produce new jobs. But, "India may not be able to take advantage of these opportunities, due to a low human capital base and lack of skills." When talking about demographic dividend experts tend to overlook China's one-child policy which came into effect in 1979 and was eased in 2013. Although there were ill effects, like forcible abortions and infanticide of female babies, it contributed to economic growth. By preventing 400 million births it improved maternal health, reduced stress on environment and reduced pressure on government services. Over 70% support the one-child policy and most young people will not have more than one child, found Prof A Tal. China is a one party state with an autocratic government which can do almost anything it pleases. Land grabbing by local authorities is rampant as people do not have the right to own land under the Communist system. With total power the Party cannot afford to let economic growth falter which has resulted in very high local government debt. The government in Beijing took action but the debt level increased to $2.5 trillion in November and Public-private partnership was another $2.69 trillion. India, on the other hand, is a democracy with the highest number of poor people in the world. Also, "India is home to the world's largest concentration of illiterate people in the world." Protectionism in the West is threatening India's services exports, wrote T Kundu. Robots are going to displace a lot of workers who will need to be educated and re-skilled, wrote M Chakravarty. But, how? When so many millions of people are already illiterate how will they understand Artificial Intelligence and robotics.  A "Golden 1,000 Days Period" which includes adequate antenatal care for pregnant women, with nutritious diet during pregnancy, and care of the newborn for the first two years of its life ensures good health and brain development for the rest of life, wrote A Alexander. Instead they get Aadhaar card immediately after birth. Suck on it.

The key to China is in the US.

While markets are puzzled about Donald Trump they are optimistic about Xi Jinping, wrote William Pesek. "Xi, the bulls say, just built a new economic dream team to rein in duelling bubbles in credit, debt, property, pollution and corruption." "The Trump trade has always been cloaked in Faustian cynicism." "The bet on Xi is far more earnest." "Yet where's the progress on curbing shadow-banking intemperance or reducing public debt accumulation? How far has Xi really gotten curtailing inefficient  state-owned enterprises, increasing transparency or creating clearer lines between public and private sectors? It's fair to wonder too how far Xi can get in the next five years. protecting the root of all financial evil: a 6.5% growth target." Xi Jinping has earned praise for strict action against corrupt officials. A Chinese watchdog said that 1.34 million officials have been punished for graft. But, strong leaders love corruption, wrote Prof K Basu. "It is not hard to see that for such leaders, nothing is as advantageous as pervasive corruption. When that happens, it becomes easy for the leader to silence dissent and encourage public display of loyalty. This is because when there is pervasive corruption, the leader has the option of arresting almost anyone on corruption charges." "The ubiquity of corruption gives a political leader a leash to curb dissent without having to openly say that he or she is curbing dissent." If Trump uses higher tariffs as leverage in trade discussions he may get concessions from the Chinese but a tariff war will hurt both the US and China, wrote N Smith. China has a devastating weapon against the US, wrote M Schuman, which is a boycott of US products. Walmart may talk about supply chains allowing it to import cheap products from China, which help the poor in the US, but it has been forced to close its stores in China. Amazon has not been successful in China, whereas Alibaba, a Chinese online retailer, is spreading easily to many countries. US technology companies, like Google, Facebook and Uber, thrive in India but are not allowed to enter China. Walmart and Amazon are competing to acquire Indian online retailer, Flipkart. To take on China it is important to understand that "the rise of China, the rise of globalization and the rise of finance since the 1980s are interlinked phenomena", wrote VA Nageswaran. Wall Street has become a Trojan Horse for China. At some point it is going to be China versus the rest of the world, said M Every. Half the US seems to want impeachment of Donald Trump. Have they all been bought by China?

Why is there a shortage of cash if there is no shortage of cash?

In scenes reminiscent of demonetization, suddenly imposed on the nation by the Prime Minister on 8 November 2016, people are being refused cash by ATMs. The Reserve Bank of India says that it has enough notes in reserve, but then why is it not releasing them? The government says there are Rs 18.3 trillion in circulation so there is no shortage of cash, yet ATMs, even in Delhi are empty. As is usual in India, when politicians are shown to be incompetent they respond with violence. Tax officials are raiding those suspected of hoarding cash. But what does 'hoarding cash' mean? The government says that the velocity of circulation of money is falling, which means that more cash is being withdrawn for the same number of transactions. Apparently some smaller contractors are withdrawing money but not using it for business projects and so it means that they are hoarding black money. What if this is payment for legitimate work they have done and they are keeping money in cash because they intend to pay wages to their workers or because they are fearful of the FRDI Bill which has a 'bail in' clause permitting banks to use depositors money to pay for default on loans by big businesses. Ordinary people in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have also been withdrawing cash from banks because they have been spooked by the news of the bill. Is Prime Minister Modi going to arrest plumbers, electricians and maids for hoarding cash? Keeping cash at home as high costs. There is no return on money kept under a mattress and there always is the danger of thieves. Actually there is not enough currency in circulation. "According to the pre-demonetisation trend, the currency in circulation should have been close to Rs 23 lakh crore (trillion) if we assume that cash is coming back at the same pace," said R Gandhi, former Deputy Governor at the RBI. That maybe because the economy has grown and inflation has made everything more expensive. Again blaming people, the government claimed that there is unusual demand for cash. There has been a fall in growth of deposits in banks which may also be contributing to a lack of cash in banks. Suspecting all the people of being criminals Modi imposed demonetization and biometric identity cards called Aadhaar. People are unable to use mobile wallets because they have to provide KYC, or Know Your Customer. So they are using cash. Use of cash is rising in Europe and Japan where there is little black money, wrote L Bershidsky. Politicians do not trust us and we certainly do not trust them. So, we trust cash.

Surely one so critical cannot he a job applicant?

"The situation demands that you speak up in the national interest," wrote Yashwant Sinha. "If you remain silent now you will do great disservice to the country." Yashwant Sinha was the Finance Minister from 1998-2002 and Minister of External Affairs from 2002-2004 in the BJP government of Prime Minister AB Vajpayee. He is critical of the present BJP government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi because "The economic situation is grim", "corruption has raised its ugly head again", "Women are more unsafe today than before", and "The sum total of our foreign policy seems to consist of frequent foreign visits by the prime minister and his hugging foreign dignitaries, whether they like it or not". Why is he angry? "I do not know how many of you will get the ticket for the next Lok Sabha elections but if previous experience is any guide, half of you at least will not," he wrote. His son Jayant Sinha is Minister of State for Civil Aviation and was Minister of State for Finance before this. Yashwant Sinha criticised this government's economic policies last year for which he was savaged by the present Finance Minister, A Jaitley who called him job applicant at 80 years of age. During Sinha's time as Finance Minister GDP growth was weak. Sinha renewed his criticism point by point in an interview, following Jaitley's outburst, and a few days later compared Modi to Muslim invader Mukammad bin Tughlak. Jayant Sinha wrote an article defending the government and opposing his father. A survey by the Reserve Bank of India showed that households are pessimistic about "the overall economic situation and on the employment situation", wrote VA Nageswaran. The puzzle is that "capital formation by non-financial private sector corporations as a percentage of GDP" has remained "stable between 11% and 12% between 2011-12 and 2016-17" and yet there has been "a dramatic decline in capital expenditure proposed to be incurred incurred since reaching a peak in 2011". So, on the one hand, investment is supposed to be increasing, while, on the other, private sector is reducing capital expenditure. Figures are obviously wrong. Exports as a share of the GDP is lowest in 14 years, since 2003-04. The strength of the rupee is one cause of falling exports but helps those who have borrowed in foreign currency, importers and the government, wrote TK Arun. A strong rupee reduces inflation and helps keep fiscal deficit in check. It is precisely for these reasons M Merchant favors a strong rupee. But even a strong rupee cannot keep the price of oil in check. Allowing the price of fuel to increase will increase inflation and cause anger while reducing taxes on fuel will hit fiscal deficit. Sinha may not have been a good finance minister but his criticism seems to be right. Trouble is, Modi is stuck. 

We are not violent, they are deaf and blind.

There is a "frightening trend of violent revolutions," wrote S Shekhar. He focuses on recent agitations in Gujarat, Haryana and Rajasthan because of differences between castes which ended in deaths of many protesters. "Needless to say, the fabric of the Indian nation state is endangered after every such violent outbreak." Recently there was a call for Bharat Bandh, which means an all India shutdown, against reservation in government jobs and in higher education for people of lower castes. Naturally, those who benefit from such reservations violently opposed the strike. "So, there was retaliatory violence in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan the day after the Bharat Bandh." But violent protests are not new in India. An armed revolution by villagers against local landlords in Naxalbari in Bengal continues to smolder to this day. Born in Bengal it spread to many states as poor peasants responded with violence against injustice of the state. According to the latest government figures 90 districts are still affected by Left Wing Extremism. The people of Tamil Nadu are protesting against, what they see as, North Indian  conspiracy against the South. All the Southern states are infuriated by the terms of reference of the 15th Finance Commission which has been asked to use the 2011 census to allocate funds to different states. Even in a nation where violence is a daily occurrence the rape and murder of a child has been especially shocking, prompting 49 retired civil servants to write to the Prime Minister to improve functioning of the government. Why are people angry and what has the murder of a child to do with politics? It is because politicians deliberately divide people according to religion and caste in order to get votes, wrote an editorial in the Mint. Recently, the Congress government of Karnataka classified Lingayats, a Hindu community, as 'minority' in an effort to divide Hindus who are seen as supporters of the BJP. After the attack on Mumbai by terrorists from Pakistan, in which around 170 people were killed, Digvijay Singh of the Congress continued to claim that right wing Hindus killed Hemant Karkare of the Anti Terror Squad. Yesterday, 5 men accused of planting a bomb in a mosque in Hyderabad in 2007 were freed by the judge as the prosecution failed to prove its case. "For its appeasement politics, the Congress targeted and defamed Hindus and the country for merely some votes," said the BJP while the Congress blamed the BJP for influencing the investigating agencies to spoil the case. It took 25 years for women in a village in Tamil Nadu to obtain justice in a case of mass rape committed in 1992. Those who can escape to other countries, wrote R Seth, the rest of us suffer the tyranny of politicians. Hence the violence.

The system cannot cope.

Cheating in exams is rampant in certain states in India. "The layers are coming off the mystery surrounding the scams carried out during the entrance exams for the Staff Selection Commission. The case with malpractices during the CBSE (Central Board of Secondary Education) board exams is similar," wrote S Shekhar. The cheating industry is so strong that "it even left an adverse impact on election results. Since then, politicians have avoided intervening in these matters". "Why are Indian lawmakers, who are ready to take umbrage at the drop of a hat, silent on this serious matter?" he asks. When photos of parents climbing windows to supply cheat sheets to their children in Bihar went across the world the government took action. Last year in Bihar, 70% of students failed in the science stream and 76% failed in arts when authorities cracked down on cheating. This year students have been forbidden from wearing shoes and socks when they appear for Board exams. Over a million students did not sit their exams in UP this year because of a government crackdown on cheating. "Cheating is an outcome of improper teaching, and students are only victims of the system, which has over the years forced them to adopt such things. There is an urgent need to revamp the education system where teachers, right from the primary school level, should be engaged more in teaching rather doing other work," said youth sociologist V Chandra. He is right, but cheating is extremely unfair on students who work hard throughout the year to do well honestly because they want to get admission in elite colleges where admission tests are so tough that only those in the top 0.5% have any hope of getting a seat. Apparently, government action has increased the rates of those who supplied the cheating material. Unfortunately teachers in government schools spend more time on other duties, such as supervising midday meals, census collection and election duties than on teaching. This year questions papers of at least two subjects were leaked and those exams will have to be taken again, putting students under unnecessary stress. Teachers cite countries like Finland which have done away with exams. The difference is that Finland has a very small population so every child gets personal attention and since education is a fundamental right it is free even for college students. India has a huge population, with Bihar and UP having the highest fertility rates. The only way to see if children are learning anything is to see their exam marks. If some students cheat everyone becomes suspect. No wonder there are 75,000 beggars who have passed Class 12 Boards and in Bihar, convicted murderers are prized as grooms. All the problems of India are because of the population. All we have to do is to reduce that.

Can a mafia boss take on a monster?

The US, UK and France launched missile attacks on supposed chemical weapons sites in Syria yesterday morning. The United Nations had destroyed all chemical weapons in Syria in 2014. "In record time, even amid a civil war, we removed and have now destroyed the most dangerous chemicals in the regime's declared stockpiles," said the then Secretary of State, John Kerry and President Obama claimed that this would "advance our collective goal to ensure that the Assad regime cannot use its chemical arsenal against the Syrian people...". The US seems not to have learnt from its failure to find WMDs in Iraq when it launched a totally illegal war which resulted in the removal and subsequent hanging of Saddam Hussein. The UN Weapons Inspector, Hans Blix was scathing about the way the US lied to justify its invasion of Iraq. More than a million Iraqis, almost all civilians, have paid with their lives because of the illegal war launched by the US and UK. Ever since Margaret Thatcher won the war against Argentina over Falklands every British prime minister has hankered for a war to show bodies as trophies. Blair encouraged Bush to attack Iraq and Obama unnecessarily attacked Libya under pressure from David Cameron, resulting in over 30,000 civilian deaths and over 50,000 wounded. Now it is Theresa May's turn to earn some points by bombing Syria, especially since she lost her majority in the House of Commons in an ill-considered election last year. It is shocking that May considers it more important to waste money on bombing people in another country when her government is closing wards in the National Health Service so that patients are dying in hospital corridors while waiting for a bed. Each cruise missile costs $1,4 million and over 100 missiles were fired at Syria. In an irony, a brown woman, Nikki Haley defended the 'white man's burden' at the UN Security Council. "Only a monster targets civilians and then ensures that there are no ambulances to transfer the wounded," said Ms Haley. Hear, hear. We did not realise that Tomahawk cruise missiles carried first aid kits with them. Was there a chemical attack on Douma as claimed? The pictures were harrowing but we do not know when and where they were taken. The French immediately concluded that Bashar al Assad was responsible, rejected by Russia. Russia blamed the UK for the chemical attack on Douma, rejected by the UK. The rebels had lost in Douma and agreed to a Russian proposal to withdraw from there. Assad had absolutely no reason to use chemical weapons on Douma knowing that it will invite reprisals. The rebels, on the other hand, had every reason to carry out the attack as revenge for defeat. They could have been told by the UK or the US. When you need trophies you create excuses. If Assad is a monster, Trump is a "mafia boss" according to "untruthful slime ball" James Comey. 

What is public is private. Or is it the other way round?

"The roots of the current crisis in our banks, therefore, lie in the great boom of 2003-08, which was then prolonged in India by a fiscal and monetary stimulus," wrote M Chakravarty. Bank credit rose from 19.2% of GDP in 1991-92 to 51.64% of GDP in 2016-17. The share of public sector banks in total outstanding credit rose to 46.72%. The State Bank of India with its associates, also government banks, had an exposure of 24.1%, which was greater than 21.42% of all private banks. The combined fiscal deficits of center and state governments rose to 9.3% of GDP in 2009-10, corporate profits dived and the share of bad loans in government banks rose to 68.3% of the total. The problem of bad loans in public sector banks is due mainly to two reasons, wrote Prof N Kaushal. One is that the government uses public sector banks to finance social schemes, such as farm loan waiver. Those farmers who have repaid their loans feel aggrieved, resulting in farmers borrowing with the expectation of not having to repay. However, all political parties resort to this to win elections. The other reason is that officials of government banks never lose their jobs, even after conspiring to lend large sums to dubious business fellows. Now, it seems that even private banks are not immune to shady practices. The CEO of Axis Bank, Shikha Sharma was appointed for another 3-year term, starting in June 2018, but the RBI has asked the board of the bank to reconsider her reappointment because of the poor performance of the bank and not disclosing it bad loans fully, wrote T Bandopadhyay. Not disclosing bad loans means that the bank was able to show higher profits, which may have led to higher dividends for shareholders. Recently, the CEO of ICICI Bank, India's largest private bank, Chanda Kochhar has been accused of facilitating a loan to a business house associated with her husband and brother-in-law. What are the sharp practices that private banks indulge in? One is to give a fresh loan loan which is used to repay an old loan, a practice known as 'ever-greening'. A second is to give a loan to another company with the understanding that it will be passed on to the company in distress. A third is to show a lower interest rate and to take the difference as a fee to increase profits for the year. The bank sanctions a higher loan to cover the fee. By diluting risk management private banks try to hide bad assets. Officials of public sector banks cheat for small amounts but the highly paid officials of private banks go for very large gains. Banks are staring at $38 billion, around Rs 2.5 trillion, in bad loans in the power sector. That is because state governments promise free electricity to farmers to win elections. When governments use our deposits for handouts it is no wonder that people panic when they want  to limit banks' liability to Rs 100,000, the dreaded 'bail in' clause in the FRDI bill. Public and private all mixed up.

From top to bottom.

"India's liberalization in 1991 was premised on the idea that it would make local industries more competitive, helping them capture world markets, which in turn would enable millions of workers to move away from low-productivity farm jobs to high-productivity factory jobs," wrote P Bhattacharya. Data from the RBI shows that it has been partially realised, but has been skewed. "While the pace of non-farm job creation in the post-liberalization era (at 3.39% per annum) is similar to the pace of job creation in the decade immediately preceding liberalization (at 3.59% per annum), the growth of jobs in the post-liberalization era has been very narrowly concentrated in a few sectors." Construction was the biggest creator of jobs at 35.74%, followed by trade at 14.56% and miscellaneous services, including real estate brokers, at 8.43%. The same data from the RBI showed that employment in the total Indian economy actually shrank by 0.1% in 2015-16 and by 0.2% in 2014-15, wrote M Chakravarty. The number of people in agriculture has fallen but productivity in "the construction industry has been declining". "What's wrong with Indian real estate?" asked S Nayar. Developers concentrated on the higher end of the market, asked for excessive prices and delayed projects making customers suffer. Between 2005 and 2008 $25 billion was invested in Indian real estate market. "Barely 20-30% of about $25 billion has been returned." Lack of jobs is not the only problem. "Even as the Indian economy struggles to create new jobs, employers in the country find it increasingly difficult to find employable workers," wrote D Jain. Surveys regularly show that the quality of education in schools is dire, and getting worse. We maybe poor in educating our children but we are the best in cheating them. Nearly 200 substandard engineering colleges have applied to the All India Council for Technical Education, or AICTE, to close down. "AICTE wants to close down about 800 engineering colleges across India". What were they doing all these years when parents were paying vast sums of money they could ill afford for their children to be made unfit to survive? But it is not all bad news. Seems that many multinationals are shifting their global inhouse centers, or GICs, for research in digital technology, to India. Sadly, those who have wasted years in poor quality education centers will not benefit. We cannot depend on Indian companies to create jobs. "Lending to corporates in India has never been a profitable activity," said S Mukherjee, meaning they deliberately default on their loans. The Supreme Court is frustrated that Rs 1 trillion meant for protecting the environment was used for other purpose. Household savings are dropping not because of a lack of jobs but because of having to pay for services for which we have paid taxes already, wrote VA Nageswaran. Humongous government, no governance.

Why is the high price of oil not producing inflation?

People cheered when the Reserve Bank "predicted a softening of inflation and an acceleration in the pace of economic expansion through fiscal 2018-19", wrote R Mahapatra. But, most ignored a fall in consumer confidence in the RBI Survey. "The current situation index (which is based on perceptions) has remained in the pessimistic zone since March 2017," said the RBI. In November 2016, about half the respondents in the RBI Survey said that they expected the economy to improve. "Today, only a third feel the economic situation has improved, while two-thirds of the respondents feel it has remained the same or worsened. In November 2016, 63% of the respondents expected the economic situation to improve. That number has steadily slipped to 48% in March 2018." Inflation expectation has gone up and "Indian companies shelved a record number of projects in 2017-18.These involved investments worth Rs 7.7 lakh crore, or $117 billion, of which 40% were scrapped in the quarter ended March alone". "But the government is not going to sit idly by and commit electoral hara-kiri," wrote M Chakravarty. A massive road building program to provide jobs, bank loans to small industries, affordable housing scheme, a mammoth recruitment program in the Railways and BJP ruled states of UP, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, and a hike in Minimum Support Price to 150% for farmers. The government has already admitted that fiscal deficit will be worse than promised. To help out the RBI has allowed foreign portfolio investors to buy an extra half a percent of government bonds in this financial year and by another half a percent in the next. Limit of investment in corporate bonds has also been increased but not in bonds of states. States have been borrowing from the market at a compounded annual growth rate of 21.2% from 2012-13 to 2016-17, to reach Rs 3.8 trillion. A Khajuria is barely able to contain his elation because yields on the benchmark 10-year bonds have fallen from 7.8% to 7.17% and increased buying by foreign investors will bring in dollars and support the rupee. However, traders are still doubtful until banks start buying bonds, wrote K Goyal. Banks are reluctant to buy bonds because any fall in prices will have to be shown as losses on their books which are already overflowing with bad loans. Banks have been able to recover a "pitiful 10.7%" of Rs 2.7 trillion in bad loans they wrote off from 2014-2017, wrote A Iyer. Meanwhile, "Once his best friend, oil now looks menacingly at Narendra Modi," wrote Chakraborty and Hordern. Having massively increased taxes on fuel to finance an explosion of social schemes, Modi is unable to reduce taxes as the international price of oil goes up, to contain the fiscal deficit. If the soaring price of fuel is not fueling inflation then the economy cannot be growing. Can it? 

Who will hold his nerve?

"Economists have been quick off the block to criticize President Donald Trump for his seemingly disparate and uncoordinated actions on trade and intellectual property disputes with China," wrote VA Nageswaran. "But they had not offered better answers." "President Xi Jinping promised Obama that China wouldn't turn a series of man-made islands in the South China Sea into military installations. He did just that." China promised Bill Clinton that it would "sign the government procurement agreement, which requires government purchases to be made on a non-discriminatory and transparent basis, when it entered the World Trade Organization in 2001. Sixteen years later this had still not happened." Trump could force more concessions from China by threatening a trade war, wrote Prof N Smith. Even Paul Krugman "was worried about Chinese imports reducing aggregate demand" and did not think that China could do much to retaliate. Curiously, Smith concludes, "In other words, the safe bet is that this trade war will not end well for Trump, or for the US." Last month Trump announced plans to increase tariffs on $60 billion worth of Chinese imports. In retaliation China announced plans to impose tariffs on $50 billion of US imports, including soybeans, planes, whiskey and pork among other items. Angered by China's audacity, when it had a trade surplus of $375 billion with the US in 2017, Trump announced that he has asked US Trade Representative's office to find another $100 billion of imports to tax. In a speech yesterday, Xi Jinping said that China was going to reduce tariffs on certain imports and enforce stricter controls on theft of foreign intellectual properties. "China does not seek trade surplus," he said. "We must refrain from seeking dominance and reject the zero-sum game, we must refrain from 'beggar thy neighbor' and reject power politics or hegemony while the strong bully the weak." Ask Taiwan, India, or Vietnam. Previous president of Philippines, Benigno Aquino compared China to Nazi Germany on more than one occasion. "Trump has lost the confidence of investors," wrote R Burgess. The stock market is falling, bond yields are rising and "The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which measures the currency against its major market peers, fell 8.52% last year." China is contemplating devaluing its currency, the yuan, to increase its exports. Reducing tariffs is of no use if a weaker yuan makes imports more expensive. Will Trump label China a currency manipulator, we shall see. The US could force other countries to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, said M Every in an interview. When the US imports over $2 trillion worth of goods who is going to argue. Hope Trump can hold his nerve against concerted attacks by vested interests. Most Indians support him.

Which way will it go?

"The 2018 Union budget, for the first time, mentioned an intent to tax digital businesses by modifying Section 9 of the Income Tax Act," wrote V Dalmia and S Mehra. Companies like Facebook and Google offer free service, prompting J Lanchester to write that "if the product is free you are the product". "For example, anyone using Facebook is working for it. In 2014, The New York Times found that users collectively spent 39,757 years on the site, every single day, at the time. This was 'almost fifteen million years of free labour per year'," With over 450 million internet users, India has become "data rich before it has become economically rich". Speaking at the India Mobile Congress, Mukesh Ambani, India's richest man, said that "data is the new oil and India does not need to import it". The authors feel that foreigners are looting us. "Raw material (data) is extracted without payment from a source country (say, India) and then processed offshore and sold back as finished products (targeted advertisements) back to the source country. This sounds strikingly similar to the operations of the erstwhile East India company." Providing free services by technology companies is a form of "digital colonialism", wrote M Choudhary and E Moglen. They recommend competition by Indian companies. Data is not the new oil because there is too much of it and it will never run out, wrote A Schlosser. New regulations to control tech companies may actually be an advantage to Facebook because startups may not be able to build a huge user database like Facebook already has. Facebook has 2 billion users whereas the total population of Canada is only 36 million so it will be difficult for Canada to regulate the company when most of its database is outside, wrote R Pringle. Technology has turned nation states into Gods, wrote D Pattanaik. The government gets to know everything about us while restricting our access to information about what it is doing. The US wants details of previous phone numbers, email addresses and social media histories from every visa applicant. Our government argued in front of the Supreme Court that there needs to be privacy on social media while submitting that Indians have no right to privacy. Even better, seems that the US and Indian governments are going to share data which means we will be naked in front of the whole world. Governments across the world are legislating severe punishment for fake news, probably because a camera in every cell phone means that they cannot lie anymore. When farmers were shot to death during a peaceful protest in Madhya Pradesh the Home Minister of the state said that police did not fire on the protesters, probably implying that protesters had been responsible. Technology is here. Whether it will liberate us or be used for mind control remains to be seen. 1984 could yet happen.

Innocent or not proven?

Former president of South Korea Park Geun-hye has been sentenced to 24 years in prison and fined 18 billion won, or $16.9 million, for bribery, abuse of power and corruption. She was accused of colluding with her old friend Choi Soon-sil to receive 23.1 billion won from major conglomerates, like Samsung and Lotte. Choi has been jailed for 20 years. "The defendant abused her presidential power entrusted by the people, and as a result, brought massive chaos to the order of state affairs and led to the impeachment of the president, which was unprecedented," said Judge Kim Se-yoon. Over in Brazil, former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was told to hand himself over to the police to start a 12 year sentence in prison for graft. Lula was president for two terms from 2003 to 2011 and had an approval rating over 80%. After refusing to obey the judge's order Lula handed himself over to the police yesterday. In India, former minister A Raja and MP Kanimozhe were found innocent in the 2G scam case, which was supposed to have caused a loss of Rs 1.76 trillion to the government. "I have absolutely no hesitation in holding that prosecution has miserably failed to prove any of the charges against any of the accused," said Judge OP Saini. Another court found former minister D Maran and his brother K Maran innocent in an illegal telephone exchange case, because there was "no prima facie evidence to prove charges against them". They were charged with causing a loss of Rs 17.8 by installing 700 telephone connections at their homes and at a Boat Club in Chennai. 36% of our MPs and MLAs, a total of 1,765, are facing a total of 3,045 criminal cases, the government told the Supreme Court in March. Naturally, 35% of Chief Ministers have serious criminal charges against them. The Delhi High Court granted anticipatory bail to Sajjan Kumar for his part in riots following Mrs Indira Gandhi's assassination in 1984, in which an estimated 8,000 Sikhs were killed all over India. Anticipation of what? Sajjan Kumar has been free for 34 years now so is his bail for life? In a curious Public Interest Litigation a lawyer has claimed that the CBI lied when it claimed to have spent Rs 2.5 billion on investigating the Bofors case when it has spent only Rs 47.7 million. The case probably implies that the CBI did not investigate seriously. Seven decades after partition Pakistan seemed entirely different to India to A Jain, although he found the people extremely friendly. Pakistan is planning a permanent ban on Hafiz Saeed and terror groups. But, the Lahore High Court has told the government to "not harass" Hafiz Saeed. Pakistan maybe placed on a money laundering list by a global watchdog. The world hates terrorists. Mere crooks like we have are alright.