Saturday, April 21, 2018

China created wealth, we created Aadhaar.

"India has one of the youngest populations in an aging world. By 2020, the median age in India will be just 28, compared to 37 in China and the US, 45 in Western Europe, and 49 in Japan," wrote E Ghani. But, "While, China's spectacular growth has already benefited from a demographic dividend, India is yet to do so." A young population means more people for the labor force, more spending on education, housing and consumption, and more savings, leading to rapid economic growth. However, "There is mounting concern that future growth could turn out to be jobless due to de-industrialization, de-globalization, and the fourth industrial revolution and technological progress." Digital technologies will produce new jobs. But, "India may not be able to take advantage of these opportunities, due to a low human capital base and lack of skills." When talking about demographic dividend experts tend to overlook China's one-child policy which came into effect in 1979 and was eased in 2013. Although there were ill effects, like forcible abortions and infanticide of female babies, it contributed to economic growth. By preventing 400 million births it improved maternal health, reduced stress on environment and reduced pressure on government services. Over 70% support the one-child policy and most young people will not have more than one child, found Prof A Tal. China is a one party state with an autocratic government which can do almost anything it pleases. Land grabbing by local authorities is rampant as people do not have the right to own land under the Communist system. With total power the Party cannot afford to let economic growth falter which has resulted in very high local government debt. The government in Beijing took action but the debt level increased to $2.5 trillion in November and Public-private partnership was another $2.69 trillion. India, on the other hand, is a democracy with the highest number of poor people in the world. Also, "India is home to the world's largest concentration of illiterate people in the world." Protectionism in the West is threatening India's services exports, wrote T Kundu. Robots are going to displace a lot of workers who will need to be educated and re-skilled, wrote M Chakravarty. But, how? When so many millions of people are already illiterate how will they understand Artificial Intelligence and robotics.  A "Golden 1,000 Days Period" which includes adequate antenatal care for pregnant women, with nutritious diet during pregnancy, and care of the newborn for the first two years of its life ensures good health and brain development for the rest of life, wrote A Alexander. Instead they get Aadhaar card immediately after birth. Suck on it.

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