Wednesday, April 18, 2018

Why is there a shortage of cash if there is no shortage of cash?

In scenes reminiscent of demonetization, suddenly imposed on the nation by the Prime Minister on 8 November 2016, people are being refused cash by ATMs. The Reserve Bank of India says that it has enough notes in reserve, but then why is it not releasing them? The government says there are Rs 18.3 trillion in circulation so there is no shortage of cash, yet ATMs, even in Delhi are empty. As is usual in India, when politicians are shown to be incompetent they respond with violence. Tax officials are raiding those suspected of hoarding cash. But what does 'hoarding cash' mean? The government says that the velocity of circulation of money is falling, which means that more cash is being withdrawn for the same number of transactions. Apparently some smaller contractors are withdrawing money but not using it for business projects and so it means that they are hoarding black money. What if this is payment for legitimate work they have done and they are keeping money in cash because they intend to pay wages to their workers or because they are fearful of the FRDI Bill which has a 'bail in' clause permitting banks to use depositors money to pay for default on loans by big businesses. Ordinary people in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have also been withdrawing cash from banks because they have been spooked by the news of the bill. Is Prime Minister Modi going to arrest plumbers, electricians and maids for hoarding cash? Keeping cash at home as high costs. There is no return on money kept under a mattress and there always is the danger of thieves. Actually there is not enough currency in circulation. "According to the pre-demonetisation trend, the currency in circulation should have been close to Rs 23 lakh crore (trillion) if we assume that cash is coming back at the same pace," said R Gandhi, former Deputy Governor at the RBI. That maybe because the economy has grown and inflation has made everything more expensive. Again blaming people, the government claimed that there is unusual demand for cash. There has been a fall in growth of deposits in banks which may also be contributing to a lack of cash in banks. Suspecting all the people of being criminals Modi imposed demonetization and biometric identity cards called Aadhaar. People are unable to use mobile wallets because they have to provide KYC, or Know Your Customer. So they are using cash. Use of cash is rising in Europe and Japan where there is little black money, wrote L Bershidsky. Politicians do not trust us and we certainly do not trust them. So, we trust cash.

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