Saturday, April 21, 2018

Whose fault is the fiscal deficit?

As the price of crude oil has risen recently, fuel prices have soared in India. "The Narendra Modi government abolished subsidies and price controls in late 2014, taking advantage of the crash in world prices at the time. As the next election approaches, Modi will be tempted to return to subsidies and price controls to woo middle-class owners of two-wheelers and four-wheelers. He should resist the temptation," wrote SA Aiyer. The price of petrol in Delhi is around Rs 74 at present, highest in 5 years. Of this, more than Rs 40 is due to a total of excise duty by the central government and Value Added Tax by state governments. If, instead of multiple taxes, the Goods and Services Tax is levied on petrol it would cost around Rs 40 per liter at 12% tax rate, Rs 42 at 18% tax rate and Rs 48 at 28% tax rate. On 16 April the price of regular petrol in the US was $2.747 per US gallon. One US gallon is 3.79 liters and taking one dollar as Rs 66, the price of one liter of petrol in the US works out to about Rs 48. There is 18% tax on petrol. At around 800 cars per 1000 people in the US there is huge demand for petrol. Does the government subsidise petrol? Yes, say opponents of fossil fuels who claim that oil companies in the US receive a total of $4.6 billion in subsidies every year. Oil companies pay the highest rates of taxes in the US, wrote R Carlyle, an engineer at an oil company. So what are the subsidies that people are complaining about? What people mean by subsidies is that taxes could be higher than what they are, and government help to poor people to buy heating oil. On average, the oil industry in the US pays around 45% when all taxes are added up, while the Healthcare industry pays 35% and Pharmaceuticals pay about 21%, wrote L Tesoro. "In 2014, prices were highly susbsidised and taxes on petroleum products had been slashed. Chidambaram aimed to gradually eliminate these distortions and then decontrol oil," wrote Aiyar. Really? Despite these so-called subsidies the government earned Rs 822 billion from petroleum products in 2013-14, when crude oil prices were at $110 a barrel. In 2011-12 it earned Rs 563 billion and in 2012-13 it earned 426 billion. "The fiscal deficit last year was 3.5% of GDP, well short of the 3% finance minister Arun Jaitley had originally aimed for. He aims to reduce this to 3.3% this year and 3.1% next year." That is because Modi wasted the money raised from high taxes on oil. "This leaves little fiscal space for giveaways. That space will be fully occupied by Modi's promise to raise farm prices to ensure a 50% margin for farmers over their cost of production, thus increasing food subsidies." So, according to Aiyar, it is alright to buy votes of farmers by taxing us. Aiyer has a Master's degree in Economics. He should give correct figures.

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