Thursday, May 18, 2017

Credit rating is actually a rating of trust.

In a big drama the CBI and Income Tax officers raided the homes of former Finance Minister, P Chidambaram, his son Karti and also properties of former Bihar Chief Minister, Lalu Prasad Yadav. Predictably, all of them have condemned the searches as politically motivated and promised to fight the government of Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. Will these moves lead to arrests and lengthy jail terms? No. These are used by all politicians to score points against opponents, using taxpayer money to create sensational stories, following which things will meander through the courts for decades, until everyone loses interest. Ms Jayalalithaa was acquitted of acquiring vast wealth through illegal means and became Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu again. The case took 21 years to reach the Supreme Court, by which time Ms Jayalalithaa had died and her friend VK Sasikala was sent to prison. Lalu Prasad Yadav, convicted of theft and sentenced to 5 years in prison has been out on bail since 2013, living in luxury in Delhi. His campaigning in the assembly elections in Bihar in 2015 won 80 seats for his party, the RJD. The allegations against Karti Chidambaram have been grumbling on for over 2 years with 'poof' of assets in various countries throughout the world, and wills leaving controlling interests in several companies to his daughter. What is the point of the present raids? Are they so stupid that they have stored evidence where they will be so easily available? There have been allegations of illegal land dealings against Robert Vadra, son in law of Ms Sonia Gandhi. A commission was set up to look into the allegations. Why? Are the investigating agencies so incompetent? Indeed, the Supreme Court set up a Special Investigation Team to look into Modi's involvement in the Gujarat riots of 2002, when Modi was the Chief Minister of Gujarat. Milan Vaishnav et al wrote that India's progress is held back because it has very weak institutions. Perhaps, deliberately so, because those in power can game the system to their advantage. Rs 2.6 trillion worth of bank loans could become bad in the next 12-18 months, reports India Ratings. This is in addition to another Rs 7 trillion already stressed. Air India has a debt of Rs 460 billion because politicians use it as their personal carrier. Indians have such a mistrust of the government that they buy gold to hedge any risks to the system, even though it pays no interest and may lose value. Experts are puzzled why credit agencies keep our rating just above junk status when other countries with larger debt have higher status. Just read the papers and connect the dots. Foreigners do.

No comments: