Tuesday, May 09, 2017

After the party the real work begins.

Emmanuel Macron has won the election to be president of France, at 39 years of age the youngest in French history. Both his parents are doctors and he studied at elite institutions. His rise has been meteoric. He graduated in 2004, worked as an investment banker, joined the government of Francois Hollande, the current president, in 2012, and became Minister of Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs in 2014. Part of his fame is because he married a grandmother, 24 years older than him. Apparently, she started her affair with him when he was only 15 years of age and she was his teacher and a mother of three. They married in 2007. He never had any other girlfriend. How weird. The economy is growing slowly, government debt is high and unemployment is in excess of 10%, it is over 20% among those under 25 years of age. Macron is pro-European Union, does not intend to restrict immigration, plans to reduce unemployment to 7% by spending 50 billion euros on job training, infrastructure and healthcare, and plans to save 60 billion Euros in public spending. Already unions are calling for protests against his proposals for the economy. Macron got over 20 million votes, Marine Le Pen got over 10 million, twice as many as her father did in 2002, and 12 million, or 25.38%, people did not vote. Parliamentary elections are to be held next month. Seems that Macron's party, La Republique En Marche, although new, is ahead in the opinion polls. After his victory Macron talked of uniting the country. How? Immigration will continue and Le Pen is going nowhere. To increase employment he will have to convince the unions who fiercely resist an change. Europe's economy grew by over 2% in the first quarter of this year, wrote Ruchir Sharma. Several countries have pruned their welfare payments while Germany undertook labor reforms in 2003 under the then Chancellor, Gerhard Schroder. France still has high state spending and high government debt. "As protectionism and insularity make inroads into numerous countries, France chose openness to the world and innovation," wrote Alexandre Ziegler and Martin Ney, Ambassadors of France and Germany respectively. It is good for India, they say. "It (Europe) is India's topmost trade partner and one of the leading investors in the country. With a single market of 500 million persons, it offers Indian companies unparalleled economic opportunities." Globalization has hurt the poor and enriched the wealthy, which is why Donald Trump was elected. If the old policies created such disparity how will more-of-the-same improve matters? The old world order is dying and no one is sure what will take its place, wrote Manas Chakravarty. We wish him well, but Macron may soon realise that winning an election is probably the easy part.

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