Wednesday, May 31, 2017

Vultures cannot harm a strong economy.

"Investing often creates moral dilemmas over goals: Should we aim to do well or to do good?" asked Prof Ricardo Hausmann. Returns on JP Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index Plus depend heavily on the events in Venezuela. "The reason is simple: while Venezuela represents only about 5% of the index, it accounts for about 20% of its yield, because the yield on Venezuelan debt is about five times larger than that of other countries in the index, a reflection of the huge risk premium that Venezuela faces." Which means the worse the economy the more the risk premium and more the gains for the bondholders. What is going on in Venezuela? The economy has collapsed, inflation is expected to be over 700% this year and the currency, the Bolivar fuerte, or the strong Bolivar, is trading at 5383 to one dollar. It was officially fixed at 2.15 to the dollar in 2010. Why is it such a a mess? Because of socialist policies of Hugo Chavez, now dead, who nationalised banks and industries and embarked on massive redistribution of land and wealth to the poor, financed by oil revenues. People are protesting against President Nicolas Maduro, who has responded with violent suppression, with 60 people killed by security forces. Remarkably, some people still support Maduro and make excuses for his brutality. Meanwhile, US vultures are picking the meat out of the moribund economy by purchasing billions of dollars of Venezuelan bonds. US funds have a history of playing this game. In 2001, Argentina defaulted on its debt of $93 billion. However, it managed to restructure its debt, with bondholders agreeing to a payment of 30 cents to the dollar. Some hedge funds bought up some of the debt and went to court insisting on full payment. This was upheld by US judges, who blocked settlement with other bondholders until the vultures were paid in full. In India, Air India is a clear example of socialist control of a business. The company has a debt of around Rs 500 billion despite the government giving it Rs 170 billion of taxpayer money to keep it going. This is because civil servants, even if highly educated, have no understanding of how to run a business. The CBI has reported irregularities in its functioning. Why blame civil servants when politicians misuse their control over the airline for personal benefit. Yet, even now some people are calling for Marxism, by disguising it as "state capitalism", citing profit growth at public sector banks without mentioning the huge bad loans incurred by the same banks. If you kill the economy you cannot stop vultures from gathering.

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