Sunday, May 21, 2017

Saudis are hoping to trump Iran.

Donald Trump just visited Saudi Arabia where he was given a tremendous welcome and deals worth $350 billion over 10 years, of which $110 billion will be immediate. Relations between Saudi Arabia and the US had fallen to a low level during Obama's term, because of his nuclear deal with Iran during which Obama suppressed investigation into smuggling of vital parts to make nuclear weapons. Iran is most probably continuing with its efforts to create enough enriched uranium to be able to make nuclear weapons at short notice because it is guarding its facilities with S300 surface-to-air missiles, the latest from Russia. There are rumors that Obama threatened to shoot down Israeli planes in 2014 if Israel tried to bomb Iran's nuclear sites. The Obama administration denied the rumors. No wonder, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hated Obama, a feeling which Obama reciprocated. For the first time, the Obama administration abstained, instead of exercising its veto, during a Security Council vote which declared Israeli settlements as illegal. Sunni Saudi Arabia is trying to acquire nuclear weapons because of its fear and hatred for Shia Iran. There are rumors that the Saudis may already have bought nuclear weapons off the shelf from Pakistan. Israel is already known to possess nuclear weapons which they probably tested with the help of the apartheid regime in South Africa. Iran has been testing ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons. If they can develop a warhead to fit their missiles it would be an existential threat to both Saudi Arabia and Israel. It is entirely possible that Israel and Saudis will jointly attack Iranian facilities if they have any reason to fear that Iran is about to make weapons. They will want the US to stay neutral, even if it does not support, such an attack. How important that is can be guessed from the enormous deal the Saudis have signed with Trump. With oil prices down the Saudis are running budget deficits in billions of dollars, so this will strain their finances even further. The world is focused on US tensions with North Korea and Trump's problems with Russia. Markets have largely discounted any prospect of imminent conflict between the US and North Korea, simply because the danger of massive casualties in South Korea. The Middle East is different. It works on hatreds which are thousands of years old. The hatred between Persians and Arabs, between Sunnis and Shias, between Saudi Arabia and Iran over the control of the two holy mosques cannot be understood by outsiders. Add Jewish Israel to the mix and you have the most unstable explosive one can imagine. Perhaps, a strong stance may discourage Iran from proceeding further and prevent a devastating war.

No comments: