Is the IMF forecast just whistling in the wind?

The International Monetary Fund released its latest World Economic Outlook till 2022, wrote Mohamed El-Erian. "The baseline for economic growth is essentially the same over the medium term, with slightly better shorter-term prospects; the risks are getting bigger and are tilted to the downside; and better national policy-making and improved cross-border coordination can lift prospects." The global economy will grow by 3.5% in 2017-18, rising to 3.8% in 2022, but advanced economies will grow by 2% this year, falling to just 1.7% in 2022. Developing economies will grow by 5%. Trouble is that the risks are "tilted to the downside". So, how to increase growth? "As the IMF points out, better economic measures at the national level, together with improved policy coordination at the global level, can boost growth, lower financial risks, counter excessive inequality and provide more conducive political context." People blame globalization for the increase in inequality as companies have shifted production to places where wages are are at slave levels and have stashed away vast sums of money in offshore accounts to avoid paying taxes at home. To counter the fall in growth rate central banks of the eurozone, Japan, Switzerland, Sweden and Denmark, a total of 23 countries, have adopted negative interest rates, which reward the rich to borrow, to buy assets, while people are penalised for saving money. This is reinforced by withdrawal of cash, as Sweden and Denmark have done. As usual it is being sold as good for the economy, but it is only increasing wealth for the rich, who can park their money abroad, while taking away the freedom of how to use their earnings from the people. Germans are having none of it and are hoarding cash at home. Countries in the middle east are suffering long periods of power outages everyday. This when the price of oil is low. There is rising danger of armed conflicts breaking out in many areas of the world, wrote Prof Nouriel Roubini. As if to prove his point ISIS militants have taken over the town of Marawi in the Mindanao Province of Philippines. President Rodrigo Duterte has declared martial law in Mindanao and the air force is bombing Marawi. Not all is bad news. Europe has rejected right wing politicians in recent elections, the economy is growing at 2% and banks are looking healthy, wrote Ruchir Sharma. However, Brexit is hanging over Britain where wages are static while inflation has increased to 2.3%. The IMF and Eurozone finance ministers cannot agree on a new bailout for Greece, so a Grexit could yet happen. The IMF forecast could be just whistling in the wind.