One-sided news coverage is a danger to journalists.

There is extensive coverage on the BBC of the assault on Aleppo in Syria by government forces of Bashar al-Assad, supported by Iran, Hezbollah and Russian air power. Assad is of the Alawi branch of Islam, Iran and Hezbollah are Shia, while the population of Aleppo are largely Sunni. A report by Lyse Doucet this morning showed blood and discarded sandals on a road, and a young man crying that his mother and sisters had been killed at that spot by 2 bombs. Curiously, there seemed to be no crater to mark the explosions. The Syrian army may have used some kind of Daisy Cutter. The UN Humanitarian Affairs Chief, Stephen O'Brien, sounds Irish, feared for Aleppo,"For the sake of humanity we call on - we plead - with the parties and those with influence to do everything in their power to protect civilians and enable access to the besieged part of eastern Aleppo before it becomes one giant graveyard." As an aside, he added that "non-state actors" were preventing civilians from fleeing, which means that the rebels were using them as 'human shields'. Strangely, BBC shows no picture of blood on the streets of Mosul and no UN fellow in anguish at the suffering of civilians, when exactly the same events are taking place there. In Mosul the Shia government of Iraq, supported by Iran, Iraqi Shia militia and US air power are pounding the 1.5 million Sunni population, a large section of whom are without water. "We're facing a humanitarian catastrophe," said Hussam al-Abar."Basic services such as water, electricity, health, food are non-existent." Government soldiers in Iraq are knee-capping children in Mosul with hammers in, revenge for their own cowardly flight in blind panic 2 years ago. Russia and the West are equally brutal but the news coverage is very one sided, which makes it propaganda. Why is the BBC so concerned about Syria? Because of the fear of a flood of refugees from there. The European Union Parliament in Brussels has voted to suspend talks with Turkey towards Turkey's accession to the EU. In response Turkey's President, Erdogan has threatened to allow a flood of migrants into Europe. Killing Gaddafi of Libya was an act of monumental stupidity, especially after seeing the mess in Iraq, caused by the removal of Saddam Hussein. Russian athletes were banned from the summer Olympics this year for doping. But when a group of hackers revealed that the majority of British and US athletes were taking banned substances it was covered up on medical grounds. That is called state sponsored doping. An article exposes how the New York Times manufactured 'news'. The danger with one-sided reporting is that journalists will be seen as propaganda agents and become targets themselves. Remember Lord Haw Haw?

Cash money is not black money. It is honest trade.

Enough articles have been written on demonetisation, which is the sudden delegitimization of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes, in India and pundits have predicted that it will be a good change for the economy, after a short period of slowdown. Countries have practised demonetisation in the past in response to hyperinflation, as Zimbabwe did last year, but no one has tried it when the economy was growing in excess of 7%, retail inflation was 4.2% and the currency was stable, as in India. So why did Modi plunge the country into chaos? After all he has spent virtually his entire life in the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, usually known as the RSS, which is the Hindu arm of the Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party. He must have known that his sudden action will cause enormous inconvenience to the people of India, so why did he do it? Raghavan Jagannathan thinks that Modi desperately wants a second term and although he has accomplished a lot in the 2.5 years that he has been in power he wanted to create a sensation that would carry him to victory in 2019. "In 2004, after four years of huffing and puffing, Vajpayee's government saw growth rebound spectacularly only in its final year (2003-2004). But people hadn't begun to feel the difference," he writes. So the BJP lost in 2004. "Modi does not want to face the same fate as Vajpayee, and this is one reason why he may be willing to court more risks in a bid to retain power in 2019." By doing it now Modi has calculated that there is sufficient time for the economy to recover from the wounds he has inflicted on it. Will it? The whole gamble is based on jealousy of the poor for the rich. The poor are celebrating the severe pain they feel because they think that the rich are suffering much greater pain. We would argue that cash money is not black money, in that 99% of cash transactions are undertaken by the poor in their daily lives. The threshold for paying income tax in India is an annual earning of Rs 250,000 which means anyone earning Rs 21,000 and above should be paying income tax. No one can survive on Rs 21,000 a month in any of our cities, after paying rent and school fees. Every electrician, plumber or mason earns more than that and does not file tax returns. Modi wants to build many smart cities to urbanise India, to reduce poverty, because a nation cannot get wealthy without drawing people from villages into cities, with their advanced infrastructure. In fact, everyone of these people pays sales tax on the tools they use to ply their trades and almost every service in India is taxed at 14.5%, with 3% cess. If Modi had wanted to make people honest he could have increased the threshold of income tax to Rs 500,000, about $7,300, and 99% of people would be white. He has not appointed Lokpal, not a single politician associated with 2G, Coalgate or Commonwealth Games scam has gone to jail and more than 100 fugitives are enjoying life abroad. This is a cynical assault on the nation. Modi deserves to be booted out. 

Global warming will quickly disappear if we remove the cause.

One of the wonders of the world, the Great Barrier Reef in Australia has been damaged by a rise in water temperature by just 1 degree Celsius during February, March and April. These are summer months in Australia. At 67% the northern part has been the worst hit. "Some of the mortality was down to heat stress," said Professor Terry Hughes."The coral was cooked." Scientists blame global warming, caused by carbon dioxide, generated by the use of fossil fuels and the cutting down of forests for agriculture. The election of Donald Trump has caused consternation because of his known hostility to the Paris climate agreement, although recently he said that he is keeping an open mind. It will be very difficult, if not impossible, for Trump to withdraw from the Paris accord because the solar energy sector employs more people than the coal industry. If other jobs in other renewable energy sectors are added then it goes into millions. So, there is serious progress to reduce the production of CO2. But what about reducing the levels of CO2 already in the atmosphere? The good news is that NASA found recently that tropical forests absorb more CO2 than thought previously. The bad news is that tropical rain forests are being cut down at a ferocious rate. Cattle ranching is the main cause of destruction of the Amazon rain forest. There is a noisy movement against the eating of meat in the world. They point to the amount of water required to produce one pound of beef compared to a pound of tofu or rice. But it is not so easy. Adam Drewnowski, of the University of Washington has worked out the amount of CO2 produced for every 100 calories of food articles. He shows that meat produces less CO2 per 100 calories than milk or eggs. Tinned vegetables produce the highest. All these arguments seem futile because no one is addressing the real cause of climate change. Which is the uncontrolled increase in the number of human beings. Just one nation, China, is emptying the oceans off the coast of Guinea in Africa and China's appetite for ivory is wiping out elephants in Africa. To be fair to China it is the only country in the world to have discouraged excessive fertility. Is there any evidence to suggest that nature can repair herself if human beings are removed? Absolutely. The area around Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which was abandoned 30 years ago, after an accident has been reclaimed by wildlife. The same is happening around the Fukushima nuclear power plant which was damaged by a tsunami in 2011. Trouble is that humans have an immense tendency to breed, as proved by the number of babies born in Aleppo and Mosul during years of war. All agreements will fail unless the cause is addressed. But, will anyone speak the truth?

Will the terrorists derail Pakistan-China friendship?

While India is reeling under currency terrorism, unleashed on it by the government, sinister events are unfolding in our neighborhood. Naturally, the rogue nations, China and Pakistan, are at the center. The sole reason for Pakistan's existence is the destruction of India and Hindus so instead of being friendly with us and building trade it has been trying to seek military parity with India. To that end it has bred numerous terrorist groups, some of which are attacking targets in Pakistan with a view to capturing the country and making it into a Sharia state. Pakistan is a poor country. At $270 billion its GDP is one-eighth that of India's, foreign direct investment is a mere $2.7 billion, foreign exchange reserve is $23.6 billion, external debt is $73 billion and it spends over $9 billion on its military. Donald Trump has promised to declare Pakistan a terrorist state. That will mean reduction in military aid, sanctions on institutions deemed to be supporting terrorist groups and visa restrictions for travel to the US, so loved by the generals and their wives. Pakistan has found a natural ally in China, which is hostile to all its neighbors. China has promised to invest $46 billion to build an economic corridor between Kashgar in Xinjiang Province in China to Gwadar Port in Balochistan Province in Pakistan. Xinjiang Province is home to 10 million Muslim Uyghurs who want independence from Beijing while the Pakistani army has been brutally suppressing a freedom movement in Balochistan. Balochistan is rich in natural resources and has been ruthlessly exploited by the central government. They see the economic corridor as a massive land grab and are determined to stop it. Pakistan Army has deployed 10,000 soldiers, commanded by a Major General to guard the few hundred Chinese who will be working in Pakistan. The Chinese have asked all Uyghurs to deposit their passports with the police. This maybe because the Chinese are afraid of the Uyghurs finding support among the terrorist groups in Pakistan. Chinese naval ships will be using Gwadar port, which increases danger for India. This is in keeping with its strategy of developing a 'String of Pearls' in the Indian Ocean to surround India. While it hates India, Pakistan has no scruples in licking Chinese boots despite severe repression of Muslims in China. More surprising is the Russian decision to use Gwadar port for its own ships. This despite the fact that Pakistan supplied US weapons to the Mujahideen during Russian occupation of Afghanistan. Whether Russia wants to show its displeasure with the developing ties between India and the US or to counter China we do not know. Trump is said to have good relations with Vladimir Putin. With 2 terrible neighbors the future looks uncertain for India. The terrorists may yet have a say on their friendship.

Can you turn everyone into a billionaire?

Cuba's former president, Fidel Castro died yesterday. From the Bay of Pigs to exploding cigars the US tried to kill him many times, but failed. Castro built an egalitarian system in Cuba based on free education and universal healthcare. The figures are impressive: 99.8% of adults are literate, 12% of GDP spent on healthcare, mortality rates lower than in the US and almost 50% of its parliament consist of women. On the other hand internet and mobile penetration is low and cars are mostly of 1950s vintage. GDP per capita was $51,486 in the US in 2015 while it was a meager $5351.30 in 2013 in Cuba. Why so much difference, when there is so much equality in Cuba while the US is extremely unequal. The US has the largest number of billionaires, at 536, in the world while 43% of people do not pay federal income tax and 14% do not pay either income or payroll taxes, presumably because they earn too little. An article by Rebeca Grynspan makes a case for equality because it increases growth in the economy. Common sense dictates that if poverty is eradicated we get a large number of people who become consumers. This increases tax collection, leads to greater investment, higher job creation and increasing wealth for the entire nation. Poverty means that the government has to spend money on social schemes to prevent hunger and epidemics, instead of spending on wealth creating projects, such as infrastructure. Violent crimes are relatively rare in  Cuba, while in the US rates, especially involving guns, are rising. With greater equality and lower crime rate Cuba should be richer than the US but it is not. Why? Maybe, in creating equality Cuba took away any incentive to innovate, to take risks or to work hard. On the other hand, the US economy was transformed by a bunch of entrepreneurs, who could feel what the public wanted and built up huge companies, which brought down costs and changed people's lives. In the process they created virtual monopolies, ruined others and lobbied politicians for lesser regulations on their activities. They were dubbed 'Robber Barons'. But they also performed a service. Henry Ford brought down the price of cars from $850 to $290, which meant that everyone could own a car, while Stanford and Harriman laid down 200,000 miles of railway tracks, which means that the US has the longest rail network in the world. Most of the wealthy today are massive technology companies. We can call them the 'Silicon Sultans' but Google, Facebook and Sype are free services. As the market changes they adapt to remain dominant. Is there a lesson in all this? Maybe, to become wealthy you have to reduce regulations and allow freedom to innovate. But the rich will always look for loopholes. Therein lies the problem. Wealth accumulates in a few hands while poverty is equal. Perhaps, Prime Minister Modi should take note.

Can politics really be democratic? Perhaps not.

Member of the now abolished Planning Commission, Arun Maira writes that India needs to improve its democratic institutions. "Democratic institutions are built by leaders with a vision for an inclusive, just and democratic society. Reform of institutions is always a political process because power has to be accumulated and used against vested interests," he writes. He wants politicians to be apolitical, like Vaclav Havel, who said,"Politics must be more than just a technology of power. (It must) provide a genuine service for citizens, a service that follows the moral order that stand above us....and not just what appeals to the at any given moment." That surely is so much tosh. A person like Havel became president only because the communist government fell and it led to a division of his country into Slovakia and Czech Republic, much like MK Gandhi led to the division of India, into 3 pieces. To 'accumulate power' you need to win elections and to win elections you have to better at whatever your opponents are up to. It is illuminating that the present government, which is engaged in a war against black money, actually argued in front of the Supreme Court against submitting political parties to the Right to Information Act. Rajiv Gandhi probably had the best chance of being an apolitical politician when he was thrust into the Prime Minister's post after the shooting of Indira Gandhi in 1984. But the 'accumulation of power' led to a cover up of Bofors which will be forever linked to his name. Institutions can be created only if justice is fair. Unfortunately, cases never get resolved in India, leading to an accumulation of over 20 million. Yesterday the Supreme Court said that those accused of crimes are fleeing India and ordered the government to get them back. That must have been music to CBI officials who spent Rs 2.5 billion chasing Ottavio Quattrocchi all over the fleshpots of the world. One attempt in Argentina cost Rs 4 million. All failed. Because politicians of all parties had no interest in catching the guilty. It was the Supreme Court itself which allowed Ms Ritika Awasty to escape to London, ostensibly to nurse her sick husband. Did their Exalted Excellencies think that she was going to return to go to prison? The Prime Minister's war against black money does not extend to releasing the police from political control, without which there can never be genuine reform. Over Rs 642 billion have been deposited in Jan Dhan accounts of the poor. At Rs 200,000 per account in means over 3 million accounts. Also housewives are charging 20% to deposit up to Rs 200,000 in their accounts. So the black money war has created millions of money launderers. Institutions will reduce power. Indian politicians will never allow that.

The fun starts 20 January, till then we relax.

In all this cacophony about demonetisation of high denomination notes in India and the election of Donald Trump in the US have we taken our eyes off the immediate threats facing our nation? The rogue states of Pakistan and China are still there, still planning to harm us. Last month terrorists beheaded the body of one of our soldiers after sneaking into our territory, under covering fire from the Pakistani army. Then a soldier's body was mutilated a few days back. The Indian army responded ferociously with heavy firing across the border. Pakistan claims 3 of its soldiers and 9 civilians have been killed in Indian firing. First Pakistani Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif complained to US Secretary of State, John Kerry about Indian firing across the border, only to be reminded of state sponsored terrorism by Pakistan. A week back Pakistani Ambassador to the UN, Malleha Lodhi complained to the Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon about 7 Pakistani soldiers being killed by Indian artillery fire. In September Ms Lodhi complained to the UN about our plans to build a wall along the Line of Control, to stop terrorist filth coming across. So, Pakistan is claiming it has a right to send terrorists across the border at will. We know that the Pakistani government is not mad so there must be some logic in what they are saying. In 2008 the Pakistan army was estimated to control a business empire in excess of $20 billion. This, when the nominal GDP was a mere $170 billion. Which means that the army controlled around 12% of the economy. In July, the Defence Minister, Khwaja Asif informed Pakistan's Senate that the army runs 50 commercial entities, including cement manufacturing, wind energy, banks and even a stud farm. If there is no fighting with India there will be no need for such a huge army, which will result in loss of power for the generals. In October, Indian Home Minister, Rajnath Singh confirmed that India is indeed going to build a 3,323 km wall to seal the border between the two countries completely by December 2018. Whether it will be a physical wall made of bricks and cement or a laser wall to give advance warning we do not know. They do not seem to have stopped infiltration so far. Perhaps, we can build a really effective barrier with Israeli help. The election of Donald Trump injects a completely unknown element. He has said that he will declare Pakistan a terrorist state. If he does sanctions will be imposed on army generals, banks and businesses. Will they go mad and decide on national suicide bombing by using nuclear weapons against India? What about Pakistan's best friend China which is building an economic corridor from Kashgar in China to Gwadar port in Balochistan? Trump has promised to levy 45% tax on Chinese products and if he adds sanctions on Chinese companies that will infuriate the Chinese. All will be known after 20 January. Till then we can enjoy queuing at banks to get some money. What fun.

Will the poor applaud a huge recession?

Politicians and economists think in terms of numbers, which give them great comfort, but economics is also about people. And people are unpredictable. Economists think that with demonetisation, after a short period of pain, the economy will grow strongly as tax collections improve, interest rate drops, government spending increases, banks are able to lend more, the rich suffer, while the poor dance all the way to prosperity. Apparently, 80% of Indians support demonetisation. Of course, they do. It is the old Gandhi thing that politicians have been using so successfully for decades, to bluff us into accepting a wretched existence, while they swank around in luxury villas and first class travel -- 'Wealth is bad, poverty is uplifting'. So, what about the poor? Subramanian and Tantri, from the Indian School of Business write that the poor do not keep much cash, because they spend all they earn, so just one visit to a bank will be sufficient to change what they have. This assumes that the poor never indulge in any trade, such as selling a plot of land or a buffalo, to build a house or pay for a marriage. Assuming the poor have no savings means that their lives depend on working everyday. People will not employ labor if they have no currency to pay them with. About 400,000 jobs are to be lost from textiles, garments, leather and jewellery industries. We do not know how many jobs will be lost from the unorganized sectors, such as construction and small scale industries. Interestingly, labor prefer to lose their jobs than be paid into their bank accounts because they will lose their 'Below Poverty Line' benefits if they are shown to earn more than Rs 50,000 in a year. So much for a cashless society. Farmers have no cash to buy seeds, fertilisers or pesticides. They cannot even borrow money because village money-lenders will have no cash to lend. What about the rich, they must be crying because their black money has been hit? The richest 1% Indians own 58.4% of wealth. They can use cards at an upper end shop, eat at a 5-star restaurant or even fly out to Bangkok, for a meal. If you are a billionaire you can take a hit of Rs 100 million and wait for new notes to revive business. One writer thinks that forcing Indians to use cards will change our habit of using cash. Apparently, behavioral economics shows that a 'nudge' works better than persuasion. Writing for Bloomberg, Elaine Ou says that in Nigeria, which is more corrupt than even India, people pay by using mobile minutes and have even created their own currency. Economist, Larry Summers says that people will lose trust in government. Possibly, the Prime Minister thought, like everyone else, that Hillary Clinton will win which would mean markets will rise, foreign investors will stay and the rupee will remain strong. Instead, we are headed for a deep recession. People may applaud but they will act in their own interest. Sometimes you can be too clever.

The revenge of the 'great unwashed'.

The liberals are still at it. Bashing Donald Trump every chance they get. Other politicians have popularity ratings but Trump had a disapproval rating of 61% to 37% just before he was elected. Two weeks after he was elected it has improved to 46% to 46%. Meanwhile, Barack Obama has a popularity rating of 56% in the week of November 14-20. Obama campaigned vigorously for Hillary Clinton and against Trump. In August, Obama said about Trump,"The Republican nominee is unfit to serve as president. He keeps on proving it." Obama even tried to make it a referendum on his achievements by saying,"My name may not be on the ballot, but our progress is on the ballot." The people gave their opinion on his achievements. It was negative. Why? If 56% of people approve of him, surely it is because of his policies, and not his looks. However, at this point in his presidency Bill Clinton had a popularity rating of 63%. This was despite all the sleaze about Monica Lewinsky and her blue dress. What helped Obama in 2008 was the popularity rating of George W Bush at a dismal 29%. But Obama's average rating at 48 is lower than that of George W Bush at 49.4 and even Richard Nixon at 49.1. Perhaps, a lot of Obama's popularity comes from blacks, 95% of whom voted for him in 2008, because he is black, and he got 66% of those between 18-29 years of age, who tend to be liberal. Again 93% of blacks and 60% of 18-29 years of age voted for him in 2012. Trump's opinion of Obama is not very high. "He's a terrible president. He'll probably go down as the worst president in the history of our country. He's been a total disaster," he said. The people may not agree with that assessment of Obama but they did not show much appreciation of his policies either when they voted for Trump, despite holding their collective noses. That must say something. Hillary Clinton's biggest blunder was to have served as Secretary of State in Obama's first term so she could not distance herself from his policies. Even African Americans did not turn out for her. Republicans kept hammering on that. "America deserves better than a third term of Obama-Clinton policies," said RNC Chairman, Reince Priebus. Trump has picked Priebus as his White House Chief of Staff. Obama was so sure of his superiority that when asked to imagine Trump giving the State of the Union address he said,"Well, I can imagine it in a 'Saturday Night' skit." Even now liberals seem unable to understand why Trump won. They dismiss his supporters as white trash, forgetting that they have a right to be heard with respect and are abusing Trump's picks as evil. They forget that their contempt for the people lost them both hoses of the Congress. That is the problem with democracy. The 'great unwashed' may not be dismissed.

Is all this drama just 'political jumla' after all?

Depending on who you ask the sudden withdrawal of 1000 and 500 rupee notes is a game changer, which will boost the economy, or it is just a cynical political move to hamstring the opposition in the coming elections in UP and Punjab. India is no stranger to game changers by politicians. The MGNREGA scheme was supposed to increase disposable income of the rural poor, give them better bargaining power and increase growth, by increasing demand. As in any social scheme, most of the money was stolen and resulted in food inflation by creating a floor under rural wages, hurting the very poor it was supposed to help. The theory of Okun's Bucket has been known for a long time in economics. The proposal to allow 51% foreign holding in multi-brand retail was supposed to result in huge investment in back end infrastructure, increase farmers' income and reduce prices. It was stillborn. The Unique Identification card, or Aadhar, was introduced to target government handouts to the deserving poor. But despite Supreme Court rulings not to force it on citizens we are being coerced into providing our fingerprints and iris scans. It will be compulsory for this year's Joint Entrance Examination for students. The Stasi would have been proud of Aadhar. Politicians claim that all information collected by the UIDAI is secure. Is it? Aadhar is an identity card and at some point the police, banks or civil servants will want to verify the identity of a person. The Prime Minister is fanatic about a digital India so at some point it will be accessible online and that will allow hackers to access details about people. Ruchir Sharma writes that demonetization is about punishing the rich because they did not cooperate with the amnesty scheme earlier this year when they were invited to convert black money into white by paying 45% tax. "It might be satisfying to punish shady fortunes, but revenge is not a development strategy." Sharma is right that it is revenge on the rich, but it is more a revenge on political opponents who have been taunting Modi on his promise of giving every Indian Rs 1.5 million by bringing all black money stashed broad. Every word is now a 'jumla' You dare to taunt me, let me see you laughing when you stand for hours in queues to access your own white money. Will black money disappear? For a time. Trouble is that Modi seems to be intimidated by civil servants who are the major reason for black money. After being banned civil servants are officially allowed to accept gifts. Their foreign trips maybe sponsored by foreigners. So, a fellow in the Ministry of Defence could be sponsored by the ISI. Most of the rage is expressed by politicians who have lost their stash. The rest of us know that everything in India is jumla anyway. Just be patient.

The times maybe changing, but will they be for the better?

 Professor Rogoff thinks that a hard landing for the Chinese economy is possible and will affect the rest of the world. When will it happen? According to the Bank for International Settlements a credit boom in excess of 10% is followed by a banking crisis and China has reached 30%. But people have been warning about China for many years now. Jim Chanos predicted a crash last year when he discovered that construction of 5.6 billion sq meters, 60 billion sq feet, was underway. Most of it was high-end condos at $100,000, when average Chinese earnings were $10,000 per year. India has also seen a construction boom  with prices almost equal to Manhattan in New York. China has a high level of corruption, just like in India. Bribes and favors have been an accepted part of business, seen as the grease to keep the economy growing. President Xi Jinping has been cracking down on corruption, which is blamed for the economic slowdown. China runs a huge trade surplus every year, whereas India always has a trade deficit. Prime Minister Modi's sudden withdrawal of high denomination notes in India is going to result in a drop in real estate prices in India which will slow down the construction industry, reduce tax collections and reduce the number of jobs, hitting the poor daily wage earners. The Chinese government has the money to stimulate the economy by increasing spending. Do we? China is now facing a double whammy. Its factories are having to put up prices due to rising costs and wages even as global demand remains tepid putting pressure on exports. Rising prices of Chinese goods could be beneficial for economies such Japan, which is in deflation, and for Europe where inflation remains very weak. Japan and the 19 member Eurozone have negative interest rates, to discourage savings and increase spending, so that increased demand will lead to rising prices. Enter Donald Trump. He has promised to levy a tax of 45% on all Chinese goods which could reduce Chinese exports to the US by $420 billion, and foreign direct investment by $426 billion, leading to a fall of 4.82% in China's GDP. China will probably retaliate by taxing US exports to China and may order US companies to leave the mainland, leading to a tit-for-tat economic war. Trump's adviser, Steve Bannon advocates negative interest rates for the US as well. What that will do to the dollar and to international trade is unknown. Meanwhile, the Renminbi has become part of the Special Drawing Rights basket of currencies which may restrict the government's power to tamper with its value. Meanwhile, people in India may decide to buy cheap dollars to collect new black money, to be safe from future demonetisation. Modi quoted Dylan -- "the times they are a changin". Maybe, but will they be for the better?

Putin-Trump friendship important to keep Xi at bay.

For more than a week now the media has been concentrating alternately on the US and India. But important events are occurring elsewhere. After repeated pauses, to allow rebels and residents to leave, Russia and the Syrian government have resumed bombing of eastern Aleppo. It is hard to know what is going on. Rebels maybe motivated by Sunni hatred for the Shia Assad regime, in addition to pressure from western and Arab governments. What about civilians? According to BBC, it is because they do not trust the government's promises of safe passage and want to protect their properties in Aleppo. According to the Russian media, they are being imprisoned as human shields by the rebels. Relations between Russia and the West are poisoned, especially after sanctions were imposed on Russia following the annexation of Crimea. How did relations get so bad? For some unknown reason western countries did not welcome Russia as a friend after the Soviet Union disintegrated. Instead they saw it as a victory and proceeded to humiliate the nation into absolute capitulation. Boris Yeltsin was portrayed as a drunken buffoon, with some justification, by the western media. Naturally, a proud people voted for Vladimir Putin, who is seen as a strongman, to restore their respect. Tensions are stoked by irresponsible statements by people. Possibly to increase sale of his book, a retired British General claims that Russia will attack the Baltic states and annex them, as it did with Crimea. Some even claim that there is a possibility of a nuclear war, as if Russian leaders are fanatics who would not mind being annihilated in revenge strikes. Putin has denied that he has any intention of attacking a Nato member state but his statements are ignored, as if it is the babbling of a delusional lunatic. While politicians play games local people suffer as trade between Russia and the Baltic nations has dwindled. The European Union does not have the money to support Greece, let alone these nations. Unfortunately, Obama continued with the policy of confrontation by siting Patriot missiles in Poland and Romania, seen as a provocation by Russia. Putin hates Hillary Clinton who has been very abusive of him. Stupid arrogance has no place in international diplomacy. Well, Hillary Clinton is gone. Donald Trump is going to be the next president. So far Trump seems to want a new relation with Putin, not based on futile aggression. China must be watching with interest. If there is war between Russia and the West China will be able to conquer the whole of Asia without fear. For us in India that will be apocalypse.

Will the great gamble work?

Two questions are vexing pundits everywhere: How did Donald Trump win the US election for president and why did Narendra Modi suddenly withdraw Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 notes from circulation, causing enormous hardship to people, especially the poor. TK Arun, normally virulently anti-Modi, thinks that Modi has changed his voter base in one fell swoop. He says that demonetization, as it is called, is hurting small traders and middle income groups, a traditional vote bank for the BJP, but will benefit the poor so Modi is ditching a small group of loyal voters for a very large group of poor. That would be a very risky gamble. The vast majority of people queuing at banks are those who want to exchange Rs 4,000, which means they are migrant workers with no bank accounts. They are allowed to change only once, so if anyone has Rs 10,000 in old notes he will lose Rs 6,000. That is hardly likely to please him. The poor vote for personal gain, so they will vote for any party promising greater handouts. A former Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank angrily says that this will not encourage a change to digital economy. For that the government should make digital transactions free while charging a fee for cash transactions. That is silly because banks will withdraw all credit cards, which allow a grace period of up to 6 weeks before being paid. Rohit Prasad applies game theory to Modi's decision. He says that there were 2 options. One was to withdraw the old notes gradually while allowing those with black money to take a haircut. That would have been criticised by the opposition for allowing money laundering. By doing it all at once he is challenging the opposition. If they support it Modi gets the credit, if they oppose it they will be labeled anti-poor. One writer thinks that it will recapitalise public sector banks which are sitting on mountains of bad loans, with no hope of being repaid. There maybe something in that. There were a total of Rs 16.42 trillion of notes in circulation, of which 86% or Rs 14.18 trillion were in Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 notes. Banks have already collected Rs 4 trillion and could reach Rs 10 trillion. If a fraction of that amount stays in banks they will have a lot of easy money to lend. Pronab Sen thinks that this will not stop tax evasion and bribery, while Mihir Sharma thinks that it will damage the economy, perhaps permanently. Surely it was not a coincidence that the move was announced in the evening of 8 November, one day before US election results were announced. Perhaps, Modi thought that Clinton will win, in which case the Federal Reserve will hold interest rate at present level, thus reducing the pressure on the rupee. Or he knew that Trump will win and was sucking liquidity out of the country to support the rupee. Seems like queen sacrifice in chess. Which side mates?

Not like World War I, more like the French Revolution.

Well known financier, Ruchir Sharma thinks that the victory of Donald Trump is similar to the start of World War I in 1914. "The age of globalisation generated great prosperity" he writes."But the elite gained the most. And, as inequality rose, it stirred pockets of fierce resentment among those left behind. When the great shock came, the discontented turned to nationalist firebrands, who promised to impose controls on free trade, global banks and immigrants." "The share of income going to the richest 1% of Americans rose steadily from 1870 to a peak of nearly 20% in the late 1920s, as global commerce created a 'gilded age' plutocracy," he says. It is much worse today. The richest 62 billionaires in the world own as much wealth as bottom 50% of the population and the top 1% own more wealth than the the other 99%. During the Great Depression the poor suffered more than the rich, families broke apart and minorities suffered more than whites. After financial collapse of 2008 big banks were rescued by governments, because they were apparently too big to fail, while ordinary people, who were led to believe that growth will continue forever, lost their homes to foreclosures. Perhaps, academics misread sentiment of the masses. Majority of people do not resent the wealthy, provided the wealth was acquired fairly, through knowledge and hard work. They resent, what they see, as unfairness. The October Revolution in Russia in 1917 was a replica of the French Revolution in 1789. Both were against corrupt monarchies, spending tax money on lavish parties, while the people starved. Louis XVI and Tsar Nicholas were both executed. Since, 2008 central banks have adopted unconventional monetary polices in the belief that if you load banks with cash they will be forced to lend to new investments. Instead, the wealthy borrowed cheaply to buy up assets which made inequality even worse. Central banks are trapped in their own creations, fearful that any attempt at raising rates will result in a collapse of markets. Goldman Sachs is advising people to increase their debt, to spend more. Why? Because middle class people can no longer maintain their standard of living on their salaries, while property prices zoom upwards. The German economy, the only one doing well in Europe, slowed down in the third quarter. Politicians, civil servants and the rich are insulated against economic failure, the rest of us helpless. The abuse on Trump has been relentless and is still continuing. Calling him a "monster" means that the people are monsters. Perhaps a little humility would have helped. Sorry, we really messed up.

What would we do without beautiful stories to keep us sane?

As the nights grow longer and fog makes the days seem colder, a story to keep us warm through the winter. After 9 months of frustrating and exhausting search Tapeshwar Singh has found his missing wife, Babita. Babita was abandoned by her relatives in a dharamshala, which is an inn, usually near a famous Hindu temple, where pilgrims can stay cheaply, because she is of limited intelligence. Singh met her there, married her and settled in Meerut, in UP where Singh would work for daily wages. Then one day Babita disappeared and Singh was heartbroken. He would cycle around, often without food, with her photos at the front and back of his bicycle. Apparently, Babita forgot where she lived and was wandering around when she was picked up by a local pimp. But he abandoned her when he could not sell her, due to her mental state. At last, 3 days back Singh found her sitting alone by the side of a road in Haldwani in Uttarakhand, where she had been surviving by begging. He says it is a miracle, and it is. Such stories are sadly rare in a world full of violence and killing. For more than 20 years Gurmeet Singh has been comforting and feeding the abandoned, abused, often mentally ill patients in a Patna hospital. He talks to them, comforts them, pays for expensive medicines and even donates blood. Why? For no reason. Except that there is no one to look after the rejected flotsam of our society. If all of us were so caring India would not be one of the unhappiest nations on earth. Of course, there are explanations. Poverty, inequality, loneliness, lack of social support and so on. Professor Gupta writes that the poor are more generous than the rich because the poor have more friends who tend to support each other in difficult times. The rich are isolated, the richer one gets the more isolated he becomes. Studies show that after a certain limit increasing wealth does not increase happiness. Charity increases emotional well-being and makes us happy. So, to force us to be happy the Congress passed the Corporate Social Responsibility Act which mandates every company, with a turnover of more than Rs 10 billion, to spend 2% of profits on doing good. Wonder if the law applies to all the scams, under the Congress regime, which went into trillions of rupees. After all, scams were big business in India at that time. Sadly, it now appears that CSR has morphed into a public relations exercise, to increase profits behind a veneer of respectability. While hate is a group effort, as we see in Syria, love and kindness are acts of individual caring. May Gurmeet Singh and Tapeshwar Singh live long in their cocoons of love.

If black money saved us in 2008, what happens without it now?

We, the people, are acutely sensitive to what happens to our economy, so now that the dust is settling from last week's demonetization in India and Donald Trump's victory in the US what can we expect? UP Chief Minister, Akhilesh Yadav said yesterday,"Economic experts say the magnitude of the global economic crisis at times is not felt in India because of strong (parallel) economy of black money." To preempt any criticism he immediately qualified his comment by saying,"I am opposed to black money. I do not want it." Is he wrong? No. When real estate prices collapsed in the US, known as the subprime crisis, prices in UK also fell by a record 16.2%. In the US the majority of foreclosures were not subprime, or poor risk, at all, but people with good credit risk profiles who took out large mortgages, expecting prices to keep climbing. Nothing happened here. Why? Why is the real estate market so resilient in India? Because of black money. At least half the price of any real estate was paid in cash and banks would give loans of 90% of the remaining amount. Which meant that the buyer paid at least 60% of the cost of the property up front. Even if property prices collapse people continue to pay their banks to protect their cash investment. What about other indicators? After Trump's victory bond prices fell and yields rose in the US because markets expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates by at least 25 basis points in December. Usually any hint of a rise in interest rate causes the stock market to fall, but US stocks are rising to record levels because of Trump's promise to spend more on infrastructure and cut taxes. In India, on the other hand, bond prices have risen and yields have fallen, because banks have an excess of funds, as people have deposited all their old currencies in banks but there is a limit on withdrawals. Banks are now flush with cash. It is now cheaper for the government to borrow, to finance its fiscal deficit. Both retail and wholesale inflation rates fell in October, possibly because of a drop in food prices because of the good monsoon. Inflation is expected to fall as demand has fallen precipitously. Interest rate could fall by 100 basis points. Will it see an increase in new investments? If there is no demand where is the impetus to increase output? The stock market has fallen because foreign investors are transferring money to the US. With Goods and Services Tax set to hit small businesses in the unorganized sector growth could drop to low levels. Trump won because people were angry about the economy. What happens to the BJP  in state elections next year remains to be seen. Meanwhile we will continue our struggles according to Ram Bharosey, or God's Grace. 

Will astrology provide any answers?

The election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the US is an opportunity for all the experts to try and predict what he is going to do. It is great fun because Trump has never held any elected office or government post or served in the army and he has a record for denying statements he has made in the past, accusing the media of being hostile. There is no doubt that the liberal media has been extremely hostile to Trump during the campaign and they have continued with their abuse even after so many days of the result being announced. A bunch of these 'experts' give their views on what Trump should and should not do. Strangely, most of them seem to be hoping that Trump will go back on his campaign promises. One Larry Korb writes that his advisers should get him to dishonor his campaign promises. So what does it mean for India? Alyssa Ayres is optimistic. "Trump has promised to renew and expand the US navy just at the time India is expanding its navy to ensure its role as the pre-eminent Indian Ocean power. Look for this aspect of Indo-US ties further," she writes. "Trump will enter office with a fully de-hyphenated view of India and Pakistan. He has spoken about India as a land of economic opportunity, has pursued property developments in India, and admiringly cited India's high economic growth rate during the third presidential debate. He has spoken of Pakistan as the most dangerous country in the world, and said that only India can 'check' Pakistan." On the other hand,"He has said that he would end the H-1B high-skilled worker visa programme --." Indian writers are naturally anxious. Will he create a trade war with China, which will harm the global economy, will he encourage Japan and South Korea to acquire nuclear weapons, which may provoke China towards open hositlity, will he make friends with Russia, which will be India's advantage, and will he tear up the nuclear accord with Iran, which will push Iran to develop nuclear weapons, prompting Gulf Arab states to acquire their own. Many European countries face elections over the next couple of years and Trump's victory is seen as a boost for those who want to stop immigration and leave the European Union. Donald Trump greeted Nigel Farage, the former leader of UKIP, in his penthouse apartment in New York. Marine Le Pen of the French National Front exulted that there is no difference between her party and the UK Independence Party which was behind the successful campaign to get Britain out of the EU, also known as Brexit. If the EU breaks up India will have to negotiate trade deals with every individual nation. Which means hundreds of foreign trips for ministers and civil servants. What fun.

Impossible to make sense of events.

In the evening last Tuesday the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi suddenly announced the abolition of all Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 notes. We barely had time to digest this bombshell and plan what to do when we received another huge shock. A little after lunch on Wednesday we were told that Donald Trump had defeated Hillary Clinton, who had been expected to win by a canter, and was to be the 45th President of the US. Since then all conversation has centered around these two events, with everyone giving his two penny worth of opinion. Liberals insist that Clinton has won the popular vote by a mile and Trump's victory is invalid. The other side sneer at liberals for being poor losers. Yah-boo, sucks. Here, some are ecstatic for Modi sticking it to the black money fellows while others insist that this move will have no effect. Everyone is puzzled as to how replacing Rs 1,000 note with a Rs 2,000 will hinder accumulation of black money in the future. Now we learn that the Reserve Bank wanted to issue notes in denominations of Rs 5,000 and Rs 10,000 but was prevented from doing so because it would have taken longer. Why it would take longer to print and transport a high value note is a mystery. An even bigger mystery is what we are supposed to do with these expensive notes. Firstly, it will be a pickpockets dream. It is one thing to lose a couple of Rs 500 notes, imagine losing a couple of Rs 10,000 notes. Secondly, imagine buying a loaf of bread and 6 eggs, worth a total of Rs 100, and then expecting the shopkeeper to return Rs 9,900 in change. The only people who can possibly have any use for such high value notes are those who would want to store cash in secret, also known as black money. If human actions are so incomprehensible haw scary is artificial intelligence going to be? To answer that question Stanford University, in the US, has constituted a 17 member panel to start a 100-year study on AI. This panel has just published its first report, in which it seeks to allay fears. "The frightening, futurist portrayals of artificial intelligence that dominate films and novels, and shape the popular imagination, are fictional.....Unlike in movies, there is no race of superhuman robots on the horizon or probably even possible," says the report. That depends on the definition of superhuman. A robot will beat any human in brute force. Indeed we already have machines capable of lifting enormous weights. What about brains? One of the greatest chess players of all time, Garry Kasparov was beaten by a computer, Deep Blue. Thing is, AI is being designed by humans and they are probably unable to see the real danger. AI is based on algorithm, which has to be logical, while we are illogical. As the notes show. Huge scope for conflict.

It is all about the vote bank, but will it work?

Opium is legally cultivated in India. In Saudi Arabia, where anyone caught dealing in drugs is beheaded, morphine injections are available for treatment of patients in hospitals. Not in India. Morphine is not available anywhere, except maybe in some government hospitals. A lot of chemists do not even stock ordinary anti-allergy injections, like Phenergan and Avil, which have been around for at least 5 decades, because of the fear of harassment by inspectors. So draconian are the rules. Why? So that drug addicts cannot access drugs. Has it stopped drug use? No. Drugs are apparently freely available on all college campuses across Delhi. Even children are routinely using drugs. The result of the stupid law is that thousands of cancer patients are dying in agony because doctors cannot prescribe opiates, while addicts are using drugs freely. If you drive around India your progress will be interrupted every couple of miles by speed bumps. Why? To stop accidents and protect lives. Have they stopped accidents and protected lives? 400 people die in traffic accidents everyday, 1.3 million have died in the last decade. 1,46,133 died in 2015, which is a 4.6% increase over 1,39,671 in 2014. Cheerful statistics. This is the principle of collective punishment practiced by politicians in India to cheer up their vote bank. And it is very effective. Number of students is much higher than than the number cancer patients. Cancer patients are invisible at home or in hospitals and they are very unlikely to vote. Whereas a mother crying over the death of a son from drug overdose makes a powerful emotional appeal on TV, hence show that you care by punishing genuine patients. Same with speed bumps. India produced 3.22 million cars in 2014-15, while China produced over 20 million. India has about 18 cars per 1,000 people, hence the vast majority of people do not possess cars. Speed bumps are evidence that everything is being done to protect the poor. If a few of the same poor, who generally travel by two-wheeled vehicles, fall over the speed bump and die, it is a sacrifice in a good cause. As is the sudden withdrawal of Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 notes from the circulation. This was done to eradicate black money. Those hiding millions of rupees, without paying tax, will suddenly find them useless. Wealthy people do not keep their money in cash. They buy assets, such as real estate and gold. If they lose a few millions, so what. They will write it off a loss in business. Migrant labor, who have no bank account, will end up losing the little they have. Is it a permanent cure for black money? Not from past experience. So why do it? Because very important elections are coming up next year in UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Goa and political parties rely on black money to bribe voters with drinks and saris. Will this move give an advantage to the BJP or will it backfire because of voter anger. We shall see.

Is the dollar a solution to black money?

To some it is a 'game changer', while to millions of Indians, who struggle to survive it is enormous hardship. It is the sudden announcement of delegitimizing the Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes in India. Karl Marx would have been proud. At a stroke every Indian became a pauper, with no money to buy rice or toothpaste. You can see movies in a multiplex by booking online, eat and drink at a restaurant in a mall or buy a sofa, all by paying with a credit card but millions of Indians to not have card machines and earn their living in cash. Thus, electricians, plumbers, barbers and street vendors will see a drastic reduction in their earnings as people do not have small notes to pay them. Some are pleased. Stick it to the rich even if we have to suffer days of indignity, standing in queues to access our own money on which we have paid hefty taxes already. It will certainly get rid of fake notes. Printing fake notes is cheap so terrorists will have to be paid in dollars which will make it a much more expensive career. Will black money disappear? In the medium term, certainly. Those hiding billions of rupees in currency will just have to burn them. Most black money is invested in real estate so the expected collapse in property prices will eliminate all that. States will lose enormous revenue as real estate sales come to a halt. Will the government suddenly discover a mother load of income tax payers who have been hiding in the shadows? According to our government figures 46.1% of the population are the poorest, earning less than $5,000 per year. Which is Rs 335,000 per year. The threshold for paying income tax is Rs 250,000 per year so every Indian should be paying income tax. But, just 1% of the population is paying direct taxes. Arrest the cheats, force them to have Aadhar cards. Foreigners claim that the Hunger Index for India is 28.5% and a census showed that 65.4 million Indians between the ages of 5 and 19 years did not attend school. They must all be Bill Gates. Previous Governor of the Reserve Bank, Raghuram Rajan was unconvinced about the efficacy of demonitisation so he was rudely shoved out and Mr Urjit Patel was appointed in his place. Mr Patel is Gujarati, as is our Prime Minister, but that has nothing to do with it. The US has $1.2 trillion in notes and coins in circulation and a total of $10.5 trillion, if all bank deposits and savings in other institutions is concerned. Nine countries use the US dollar as their own currency. Why is the US not worried about black money? Indians learn fast. After the current shock is over expect a surge in conversion to dollars. Since one dollar buys Rs 67 it will be much easier to store and no one will demonitise that. Instead of wasting money printing notes let us just adopt the dollar. A permanent solution.

The deplorables got their own, women didn't.

It is settled. Donald Trump is to be the 45th President of the USA. He has won the electoral college votes needed to propel him to the White House but may have less number of popular votes than Hillary Clinton. This has happened only 3 times before, the most recent in 2000 when Al Gore lost despite getting half a million more votes than George W Bush. This is because a large margin of victory in a state with a large population gives a big swing in the popular votes. Thus, Trump won Wyoming with 70.1%, Virginia with 68.7% and Oklahoma with 65.3% but Clinton won the populated states of New York with 58.8%, Illinois with 55.4%, California, the most populated state, by 61.5% and District of Columbia by 92.8%. However, this is an election of surprises. Donald Trump will be the first ever president who has never held elected office or served in government or in the army. His wife, Melania will be the second ever First Lady who was born a foreign citizen. Trump, at 70 years of age, will be the oldest president, beating Ronald Reagan, who was 69. Going into the election every opinion poll had Clinton ahead by 1 to 7 points, only USC/Los Angeles Times consistently found for Trump. Why did all the opinion polls get it so wrong? Were they influenced bu their own prejudice against Trump?  Trump did not seem to have the support of his own party, the Republicans, having started with 16 opponents in the primaries. Afraid to lose their own seats establishment Republicans deserted him in droves. Even former President, George Bush did not vote for him, maybe because his brother Jeb was humiliated very early in the primaries. Ironically, Republican control of both chambers of the Congress is the highest since 1930s, because of Trump's victory. The Republicans have 51/100 seats in the Senate and 239/435 in the House. Trump will appoint Supreme Court judges, keeping it conservative. In sneering contempt Trump's supporters were dismissed as uneducated, old and white. Clinton labeled them as "basket of deplorables" and the liberal media abused them as dummies. The dummies fought back. However, this was as much a defeat for Barack Obama as it was for Hillary Clinton because he campaigned very hard for her. The biggest surprise was to see Democrat women crying after Clinton's defeat. In 2008, with Iraq stuck in quicksand and the sub-prime crisis she would have waltzed in to the White House. But they voted for Obama because of politically correct guilt. Clinton is associated with Syria, Libya, Ukraine and Iran. Feminists blame a glass ceiling created by men. With over 50% of the population it is actually women. 

The unknown unknown for the Indian economy.

In a brutal attack on the people, by the government, Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 notes ceased to be legal tender since midnight. As is usual, it is couched in pious intentions of rooting out black money from the nation. Cause enormous inconvenience to all the people to catch a few crooks. Which people have black money? Politicians, civil servants and their friends in business. Will they lose out? Unlikely. They will hand over sack loads of cash to friendly bankers in return for gold or foreign currency. The real sufferers will be the people. All of us have to keep up to Rs 50,000 in cash to pay our maids, those who wash our cars, to buy vegetables and to buy groceries. Because our politicians have an absolute blind faith in low interest rate, retail inflation has been allowed to run virtually unchecked. Retail inflation fell to 4.31% in September, to which the Reserve Bank responded immediately by reducing interest rate. Trouble is that the rate of inflation may have fallen but prices are still increasing at over 4%, starting from a high base, which means we need more cash for our everyday needs. We will have to stand in mile-long queues to exchange the useless notes for new currency but we are allowed to exchange only Rs 4,000 everyday. Which means we will waste some 10 days of our lives exchanging notes. How will people work if they are sweating in queues? So how much black money are we talking about? No one knows for sure but it could be 20% of the GDP, around Rs 30 trillion. Most of this is in real estate, so we can expect a crash in the value of properties. This will make it easier for people to buy real estate but states will lose a lot in taxes, because stamp duty varies from 4% in Sikkim to 12.5% in UP. Which means they could demand a greater share from the Goods and Services Tax, which is already a mess of different rates, additions of cess and other distortions. Exactly the sort of thing it was supposed to get rid of. However, what is not certain is what a sudden reduction of Rs 30 trillion will do to the economy. Will the rupee fall, because so much wealth has been suddenly wiped off or will it rise because so much money has been taken out of the circulation. Will consumer spending dip because the wealth effect has been affected. The Prime Minister is keen to make India a cashless economy. Which means we will have to use cards for every transaction, from buying bananas to buying condoms and sanitary napkins. Which will result in a complete lack of privacy. Also every transaction will be online which means either Google or Apple servers in the US. You can lock up your gold in a vault, as in Fort Knox, but how do you secure your wealth when it is bouncing round the world. Even the RBI will not be safe. Are they aware of unintended consequences?

Cuba and Denmark have equality, but Denmark is happy. Why?

In 1972, the King of Bhutan coined the term Gross National Happiness, or GNH, as a better measure of a country's progress than Gross Domestic Product, or GDP. In 2011 it was unanimously adopted by the UN General Assembly which placed it on the global agenda. GNH has been criticised by some economists who say that it is subjective and unscientific but a Global Happiness Index is now published every year. Sadly, India is 118 on the list, down one place from 117 last year. Why are Indians so unhappy? One obvious reason is growing economic inequality. Economic reforms have led to rapid growth, which has increased our national wealth. Our poverty rate, defined as earning below $1.9 per day, has fallen to 12.4% of the population. However, 12.4% of 1.3 billion people is a huge number, which is why India is home to 26% of the extreme poor of the world. If poverty has fallen why has India's Gini coefficient, in which 0 is complete equality and 100 is totally unequal, increased from 45 in 1990 to 51 in 2013. The minimum wage in Cuba was 5 cents per hour, which works out to $108 per year, lower than even Afghanistan at $1,178 per year. No one can afford to buy an electric moped which costs 4 times a doctor's monthly salary but there was virtual equality because the government subsidised food, rent, fuel, education and healthcare. Now that the government is slowly carrying out economic reforms inequality is increasing. The Gini Coefficient has apparently risen from 24 in 1986 to 38 in 2000 and has risen further since but it is still lower than most Latin American countries. So, does it mean that as a country gets richer inequality increases, making people more unhappy? No. Denmark is the happiest country in the world, followed by Iceland in third, Norway in fourth and Finland in fifth positions. Why? Denmark has a very high rate of personal tax but the social security system provides free education, healthcare, unemployment benefits, old age pensions and subsidized child care. Denmark and Cuba are extremely similar. Both are tiny countries with small populations, where people are economically close. The difference is that Cuba has a population of about 11 million with a GDP pf $83 billion, while Denmark has a population of only 6 million with a GDP of $300 billion, which makes Denmark 7 times more wealthy. Why are we so unhappy? Because India has a huge, diverse population where most people are engaged in a struggle to survive. Increased charity by the rich may help a few but the uncertainty creates anxiety. No amount of charity or social programs can help such a huge number of poor people. The only solution is to reduce the number of people. But, how?