Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Will our hopes fade along with the black mark?

At last the general elections are over. Tens of billions of rupees have been spent on campaigning by politicians hoping for returns many times the expense. Media fellows tried to influence results by biased reporting. Pollsters made lots of money trying to predict who is going to win. Stock brokers think they know already. The indices have been hitting record levels everyday. But what about us? After the circus has left town will we be left with just a fading black mark on our left index fingers as our expectations fade away? Just as they have done since 1947 while Japan, China, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and others pulled away. We hope that Mr Narendra Modi gets a decisive victory so that he does not have to depend on erratic regional leaders, motivated by pure self interest, to form a coalition. We do not want another government dependent on ' coalition dharma '. Mr Modi has several things going for him. He is an Indian and does not have an escape route to another country. Just as the pilot of a commercial airline tries his utmost to save the plane because he does not have a parachute Modi will have no excuse for failure. He is single and cannot pass his position on to anyone. He is going to be properly elected to the Lok Sabha and is not sneaking in through the Rajya Sabha. He has experience of administering a state and he has experienced poverty as a child which will make him respect the poor and not treat them as beggars by throwing handouts at them. It is not going to be easy. The economy is in desperate state. The Congress passed laws making handouts permanent which will make the subsidy bill uncontrollable. Once people are used to handouts it is impossible to wean them off. Civil servants are so used to the extra income generated by corruption that they will do everything to subvert any discipline. There is apparently an 80% possibility of an El Nino later this year which may affect agriculture and prevent attempts at controlling inflation. Those who have lost will be plotting revenge. A few stories will illustrate what may happen. In Monaco the head of one of the wealthiest families was shot by a gunman. In Cosenza, 3 people, including a 3 year old boy, were shot dead in January because the grandfather could not repay a loan. In November a gangster in Calabria was beaten with rods and then fed to hungry pigs while still alive. These are facts. Mr Modi will have to move quickly to improve the economy and improve security. Let us hope that at last we will be truly independent and proud to be Indians.

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