Will China's end come suddenly?

Prof Nouriel Roubini, also know as Dr Doom for predicting the sub-prime crisis of 2008, is predicting that a future global conflict is most likely to start in Asia. Europe had its bloody wars but has been peaceful for 69 years, probably the longest period of peace in its history, because of common institutions of the European Union. Also Germany apologised for its role in starting the 2 World Wars. No such rapprochement took place in Asia. The issue of ' comfort women ' is still a thorn between Japan and China, Philippines and Korea. But it is China which is most likely to be the source of any future conflict. Instead of using its wealth to protect its weaker neighbors and build a peaceful Asia China is using its muscle to expand its hegemony by illegally claiming territory belonging to other nations. In response to an agreement between Vietnam and ONGC of India China has set up an oil rig in Vietnamese waters. According to some reports it is preparing for a ' short, sharp war ' with Japan. After asking US forces to leave some 20 years ago the Philippines has just signed an agreement with the US to allow them back again in response to Chinese aggression. But why are the Chinese behaving in this uncultured manner? They maybe uncivilised, barbaric, brutal cockroach eaters but they are not stupid. Is it because the Chinese economy is not as strong or stable as the Chinese government makes it out to be? Some analysts believe that the property bubble has already collapsed as vast swathes of newly built houses lie empty. If property prices do indeed fall precipitously millions of people and many real estate companies will default on their debts. Banks will not cope with the tide of bad loans as the level of debt in China is now 244% of GDP. Air pollution in China is so bad that it is harming agriculture by reducing photosynthesis in plants, the lowest rung of the food chain. Not just air. About 2.4 million sq miles of land in China which is 16% of the country's soil and 19% of its arable land is contaminated with heavy metals, according to an official report. Is it possible that heavy metal in food and low oxygen levels in air is causing subtle neurological changes in Chinese leaders, resulting in wild, aggressive behavior? At some point countries which are victims of Chinese aggression will combine to push back, maybe resulting in war. Or maybe the fall of the North Korean regime with nuclear weapons in rogue hands will suddenly destabilise the country as neighbors react violently to protect themselves. The demise of China is fervently to be hoped for but may result in a lot of destruction. However it happens it will be good for us in India.