Tuesday, May 27, 2014

If the cat is found can we bell it?

One of the first acts of the new BJP government has been to form a Special Investigative Team to unearth black money accumulated by rich Indians. There are rumors of trillions of dollars in secret numbered accounts in off-shore tax havens which, if brought back to India, could wipe off all our debt and finance our infrastructure needs. Our roads are decrepit, electricity supply is intermittent, healthcare is available only to the rich, irrigation is so poor that we are still dependent on the blessings of our southwest monsoons and our education system produces millions of literate young people who cannot be employed. All that will require trillions of dollars and it is hoped that if all the money hidden abroad is brought back our economy could grow faster than even China. But is it so simple? Most of the black money is inside India, invested in properties. Last year an 800 sq yard house in south Delhi was bought for Rs 850 million, a price higher than in Manhattan in New York. Although this one was an open transaction most properties in India are bought by paying partly in cash, which is not declared for tax. As long as tax rates are so high people will use any means to avoid paying taxes. In Britain you pay only 1% stamp duty on houses up to 250,000 pounds, which is Rs 25 million, but in India stamp duty and registration charges can go up to 12%. Politicians and civil servants have acquired trillions of rupees from a succession of scams and the only avenue for investing such large sums are in properties. Since black money cannot be declared it must be paid in cash and with so much cash floating around prices of real estate have sky rocketed. The higher the price rise the higher is the proportion of tax and the greater the incentive in not paying it. This has produced a parallel economy, the size of which is unknown. When the Reserve Bank cannot control money supply inflation will inevitably rise. It is not possible for real estate prices to go on rising infinitely so 2 things could happen - either property prices will suddenly slump to more realistic levels or the rupee will fall against foreign currencies to adjust for the distortion in the levels if prices. The only way to stop this happening is to reduce taxes on properties so that the seller has no incentive in receiving a mountain of cash which is difficult to dispose of. Our question is what if some very powerful people are discovered to have billions stashed away in foreign banks. The last BJP government did not have the guts to take on such people, who may have very powerful foreign backers. Will this government have the courage to bell the cat or will the cat continue to enjoy the cream? We are agog.

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